Everything posted by Elerond
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The UK will leave the EU
Yep, i had to check OECD again. It's 6 million ethnic german men in that very important demographic, and 1.6 millions immigrants (2nd and 3rd generation turks mostly, those foreign statistics were before the immigrant crisis). It just means that that it takes 2 years longer to cross the demographic rubicon of Germany if the wave is the same as before. One can make the assessment that Europe is rich and stable because they aren't controlled by extremists, be it of the Islamist, nationalist, Christian, communist or any other variety. Also, yes, numbers can be your friend. The EU has more than 500 million people, in 2015 there were 1 - 1.5 million migrants. Not all of them were Muslim, only a small minority of Muslims are "extremist Islamists". You can work out the percentages and stuff for yourself. 1-1.5 million to Germany alone, where over 70% of them were men in the age of 17-35. In a country where the amount of people in the same demographic age is about 4 million. I see a great conflict brewing. Germany has bit less than million and about 60% of those are in age group 17-35 including both men and women. At least that is what Germany officially says Last year over 90% of final verdicts in asylum applications in Germany were rejections. Which necessary don't tell anything about future. I seriously doubt that the german authorities have to capabilities to enact them. They don't even have the full picture of how there are to begin with. Your demographics is for 2016 if you look at the raw data from UNCHR, the older ones back in september for the really big wave was 70% men. My stats are from from Eurostats for 2015 Distribution by age of (non-EU) first time asylum applicants in the EU and EFTA Member States, 2015
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The UK will leave the EU
One can make the assessment that Europe is rich and stable because they aren't controlled by extremists, be it of the Islamist, nationalist, Christian, communist or any other variety. Also, yes, numbers can be your friend. The EU has more than 500 million people, in 2015 there were 1 - 1.5 million migrants. Not all of them were Muslim, only a small minority of Muslims are "extremist Islamists". You can work out the percentages and stuff for yourself. 1-1.5 million to Germany alone, where over 70% of them were men in the age of 17-35. In a country where the amount of people in the same demographic age is about 4 million. I see a great conflict brewing. Germany has bit less than million and about 60% of those are in age group 17-35 including both men and women. At least that is what Germany officially says Last year over 90% of final verdicts in asylum applications in Germany were rejections. Which necessary don't tell anything about future.
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The US Election 2016, Part IV
I've actually seen her long political career argued as a point against her, because you can bet with a fair degree of certainty that she had some involvement in many of the current portions of government and legislation that people take issue with. Yes it can used against her, same is true for all career politicians. But for some people it is also positive trait.
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The US Election 2016, Part IV
Clinton has long political career, track record that she is able drive through things that her voters want. She also understands how US legal system works thanks to her career as lawyer. And so on. She has quite lot of qualities that one most likely wants from politician if they like things as they are or mostly as they are now. She is that conservative option for democrats who isn't campaigning for big changes.
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The US Election 2016, Part IV
Immigration police? So, just a reminder, being in the US without proper documentation is not a criminal offense. It is a civil offense. BEING in the US without proper documentation is a civil offense, true. ENTERING the US illegally is both criminal AND civil. See Title 8, Section 1325 of the U.S. Code (U.S.C.), or Section 275 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (I.N.A.) for the exact statutory language http://www.uscis.gov/laws/immigration-and-nationality-act Yes, but not everyone enters illegally. I have understood that majority of illegals come in USA legally, as tourists, students or workers, but don't leave after their residence visa ends. Which is why so called experts don't think that fences or walls are effective way to solve illegal immigration issue. EDIT: Although wikipedia's infallible article tells that about 6-7 million of US's illegal immigrants have illegally entered the country and about 5.5 million of illegal immigrants have overstayed their visa.
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Torment: Tides of Numero Uno
They have mentioned Q1 2017
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The US Election 2016, Part IV
I didn't know that Bill has changed their gender to woman
- Movies You've Seen Recently Thread
- The Funny Things Thread
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Movies You've Seen Recently Thread
I did go see new Ghostbusters, I was surprised that it was actually watchable movie after all the negativity that I have heard and read. I don't think it will be similar cult classic like original, but decent and somewhat funny. Compared to other block busters that I have watched this year, it is better than Batman vs. Superman, but far from Captain America 3 and Deadpool.
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US Election 2016, part III
The main compromise is that while I'm sure Stein and Johnson have their own sets of flaws, they're far too small to be as criminal as Hillary and it would truly take some effort to be as "special" as Trump, not to mention that if a third party were to somehow pull even 20% of the vote, it might encourage people to give new parties a shot in future elections, which is clearly needed, given the DNC corruption. Anybody that is against vaccines is absolutely incompetent to lead country. It is flaw that either Trump or Clinton don't come even close to. I don't know if I would be so quick to discredit someone's entire record due to one quirk. Even so, I'd still argue that Stein would be hard-pressed to ban vaccines in the USA, whereas Hillary installing TPP for example, she has the backing of every lobbyist in the country. Pick your poison wisely, and I would argue that we have an antidote for the ones Johnson and Stein may carry. It is not quirk it is health hazard for entire nation that risks millions of lives. EDIT: You don't need to even stop vaccinations fully to cause big health problems. You need to decrease vaccination percent only ten/twenty percent and most of herd immunity is gone and lots of disappeared diseases will come back and do devastating damage. So president that is against vaccinations is quite dangerous thing for nation that already suffers from anti-vaccination movements.
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US Election 2016, part III
The main compromise is that while I'm sure Stein and Johnson have their own sets of flaws, they're far too small to be as criminal as Hillary and it would truly take some effort to be as "special" as Trump, not to mention that if a third party were to somehow pull even 20% of the vote, it might encourage people to give new parties a shot in future elections, which is clearly needed, given the DNC corruption. Anybody that is against vaccines is absolutely incompetent to lead country. It is flaw that either Trump or Clinton don't come even close to.
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US Election 2016, part III
I bet they said that in Venezuela too. Now they're eating their pets. At least they had couple years break in eating their pets before their government run out cash. In other words, First Venezuela prospered under dictatorship, but that ended when country could not get anymore loans, but new government that replaced said dictatorship was able to fix Venezuela's dept problem thanks mostly for rise of oil prices and this eventually lead that Venezuela prospered when oil price was high but then its economy crashed when oil price dropped then its economy started again prosper when oil price rose again and then it crashed again when oil prices again crashed and then it crashed more because of coup attempt and business strikes, which combined lead exodus of foreign investments. Now Venezuela's economy is in theory in recovery but out of control inflation is destroying it and things aren't helped that oil revenue is lowest in past half century and oil is still Venezuela's main export.
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US Election 2016, part III
Guccifer (original) who hacked Hillary's emails was Romanian, Guccifer 2.0 is ??? though he claims not to be russian. They're separate people. Sweden and Finland have been 2 years from joining NATO since 1989. And Sweden is not even slightly neutral already, NATO membership would just formalise things. The big eastwards push was meant to be Georgia and Ukraine, and they both now have active territorial disputes. In 1989 Finland was closer to joining in Soviet Union than Nato, which is why for example USA forced Finland to end its submarine manufacturing, because they were too advanced and were therefore risk for national security of USA.
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US Election 2016, part III
Won't automatically protect the Baltic States, not won't protect them at all. And since Estonia does spend more than 2% of GDP on defence it's presumably only the two Ls that need to worry. NATOs eastwards expansion is dead anyway, and good riddance to it. Which is probably why Finland's delegates are constantly invited to Nato's summits and why we have increasing number of military exercises with USA and other Nato countries. Although I personally would prefer if we (Finland) would distance itself from Nato and increase our own defense forces. So Trump becoming president would actually help my own political agenda as it would undermine our Nato supporters claims that we can decrease our defense forces if we join in Nato.
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US Election 2016, part III
He already said why he wanted trump to win, because Trump said he wanted better relations with Russia, and a good relationship with the US is a win for Russia. Or it maybe because Trump said that USA will not protect Baltic states or other smaller Nato countries during his presidency, which would be quite deathblow for Nato's expansion endeavors in Eastern Europe.
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Shooting at Munich shopping mall
I meant to write about machete guy yesterday but then thought that it don't belong here because he had fight with his girlfriend and killed her. That isn't terrorism but much more typical form of violence. And it don't even seem to be related on these new over million refugees that have arrived in Germany in past year as both machete wielding murderer and killed woman who was girlfriend of the killer were working in same restaurant.
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Shooting at Munich shopping mall
Victims: Dijamant Zabergja, 21, Armela Segashi, 14 and Sabina Sulaj, 14, from Kosovo (ethnic Albanians) (Names released by relatives) Sevda Dag, Can Leyla and Selcuk Kilic from Turkey (Names released by Turkey's foreign minister) Hussein Ntaitzik, 17, from Greece (said to be belonging in Northern Greece's Muslim minority) (Name released by Greece news paper protothema) 45 year old woman and under 20 years old boy (citizens of Germany) I can't find mentions of names of those two victims that are said to be citizens of Germany.
- US Election 2016, part III
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Shooting at Munich shopping mall
Usually they release victims names within week from attack.
- US Election 2016, part III
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Shooting at Munich shopping mall
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36874497 Munich gunman 'had link to Anders Breivik', Norway killer The gunman who killed nine people in Munich was obsessed with mass shootings and had an obvious link to Norwegian mass murderer Anders Behring Breivik, German police say. Police who searched the 18-year-old's room say they found written material on attacks. The gunman, who later killed himself, had a 9mm Glock pistol and 300 bullets. Police are investigating whether he may have lured his victims through a Facebook invitation to a restaurant. He is suspected of using a fake account under a girl's name to invite people to the McDonald's restaurant where he launched his attack. Friday evening's attack at the Olympia shopping mall also left 27 people injured, including children. Three of the victims were from Kosovo. The father of one of them, 21-year-old Dijamant Zabergja, was photographed holding a photo of his son near the mall on Saturday. The other two were young women. Police say the gunman had been in psychiatric care, receiving treatment for depression. 'Obvious' link Munich police chief Hubertus Andrae said there was an "obvious" link between the new attack and Friday's fifth anniversary of Breivik's attacks in Norway, when he murdered 77 people. Mr Andrae warned the number of injured could increase if people who had fled the scene came forward. Ten people were critically ill, including a 13-year-old boy, he said. First reports of the shooting came in just before 18:00 (16:00 GMT) on Friday. Witnesses say the attacker opened fire on members of the public in Hanauer Street before moving on to the mall. A grainy video appears to show a man firing a gun outside McDonald's as people flee. Another video shows the gunman walking around alone on a flat roof before again opening fire. He can be heard shouting at the person filming, saying at one point, "I'm German". Witness Luan Zeqiri, who was in the shopping centre, told German broadcaster N-TV the attacker had been wearing military-style boots and a backpack. "I looked in his direction and he shot two people on the stairs," he said. Mr Zeqiri said he hid in a shop, but when he left, he saw dead and wounded people on the ground. Police said the gunman was a dual German-Iranian national who was born in Munich. His name has not been released. His body was found about 1km (half a mile) from the mall. He had no known links to the Islamic State (IS) militant group, police said.
- The Funny Things Thread
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US Election 2016, part III
The Young Turks are the more extreme moron Youtube version of MSNBC, Alex Jones is a crazy conspiracy theorist that runs kind of a Youtube Libertarian Fox News and somehow has way better production values than TYT. Basically TYT is everything thats wrong with the leftist media, and Alex Jones is everything thats wrong with right-wing media. I think best way to describe them is that they are something that you get when you take worst bunch of traditional leftist and right wing media and cut that final string of fact checking and substitute it with great amount of emotional bull****.
- The Funny Things Thread