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Elerond

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Everything posted by Elerond

  1. Clearly they found 300k new ballots in Arizona to prevent it flipping to blue
  2. it should not be surprise considering that Milwaukee is largest county in Wisconsin, there were ~2 million absentee ballots cast in Wisconsin, democrats campaigned people to vote early, where republicans campaigned against it and got court order to prevent counting absentee votes before today's votes were counted in Wisconsin. But for some reason those ~2 million absentee votes now come as surprise to people and republicans
  3. Considering that Clinton got similar numbers in Milwaukee in 2016, when Trump surprisingly won Wisconsin, so it should be more suspicions if more popular democratic candidate didn't get there same result Some reason nobody seems to be suspicious towards those counties which Trump won with 70-80% of the vote
  4. 70% of Milwaukee's 450k votes are cast for Biden
  5. They have some grey logic behind how they mark mail in and early votes, which they are currently counting. Considering that all but two of their counties report 100% of votes counted and those two which have still votes uncounted have less than 10k votes uncounted, but they report that ~5% of total votes have not yet counted.
  6. it is still uncalled because there is 1.4 million uncounted mail in votes and Biden has received 77% of those mail in votes that have been counted. So it looks like PA will end in close to 50-50 situation in the end, win marginal will be only couple thousand votes, so it is probably that we will see court fights over PA's results
  7. Putting it in Civilization context, it is because USA is constantly culture bombing other countries.
  8. They are right in both cases as they are just estimating probabilities of Biden or Trump winning. So as long as they don't say either candidate has 0% change winning they can say their model was correct even if the less probable thing happens
  9. I would be interested to see how well it can differentiate Covid-19 from other respiratory diseases. Indicator AI are very good to spot disease indicators as long as they don't need to pick multiple diseases fitting in same indicators, as it is often quite difficult to find such indicators from the data which you can taught to the AI as it isn't usually that clear to researchers that they could say for sure what indicators differentiate diseases from each other.
  10. Adolf rise in power because system allowed to circumvent will of majority. As Nazis didn't achieve majority in parliamentary, but because how Weimar political system work they were able to make it difficult for chancellors with small majority to do anything, so they increased president's emergency powers. This lead to situation in 1932 when Nazis were losing their support in election, but chancellor Franz von Papen, who was losing control of parliament to socialist democrats, made back room deal with Hitler that if Hitler makes him vice chancellor then Papen will use his influence towards president Paul von Hindenburg (who had beaten Hitler in presidential election) to make Hitler as chancellor. Then short after Hitler become chancellor there was arson in Reichstag (where German parliamentary gathered), Nazis succeeded to throw communists out from the parliament (as they were suspected to be behind the arson) and get parliament to vote for Enabling Act which gave Hitler temporarily act without consent of parliament and without constitutional limitations. Act was supposed to be balanced by fact that it didn't hinder president's powers, but when president Hindenburg died in 1934, people were excepting Hitler to appoint himself as president and somebody else as chancellor, but Hitler surprised everybody by combining chancellor and president offices and with fact that Germany's military supported Hitler and took Hitler Oath in day of Hindenburg's death.
  11. Paradox usually has not used much of their influence towards games done by studios they own, but they have new CEO and new board so who knows what they are doing these days. Paradox bought in 2015 White Wolf Publishing, which creates all the pen&paper role games that set in World of Darkness (Vampire is one of those) and as latest edition of p&p Vampire was semi successful they started to ponder possibility of new Vampire/World of Darkness CRPG and they eventually picked up the pitch for this game as it is one that people still asked over decade after release original. So it was probably estimate to be quite safe project for small publisher like Paradox.
  12. It is not really about freedom of speech or supporting cartoons, but that caricatures of political and religious nature are inseparable part of French culture, meaning that even if people don't agree with the message of some particular caricature or find it grotesque and bad taste, they still feel attacks against it and demands to censor it as attacks against France and Frenchness. You could just ask Muslims forget their prophet in attempt to prevent people dying because of extremists. In other words it is similar issue as why people support freedom of religion even though it leads people dying because of small groups of intolerant and ignorant extremists.
  13. It is always good when supreme court does check facts before they make ruling
  14. I would almost believe that these decisions are actually about ethics and/or saving lives if it wasn't fact that for some reasons need to protected these 'lives' seems to end when child is born and after that they become just another leaches that lives on other people's hard earned money
  15. @BruceVCThere is not best system. Ideological purity always causes more problems than it solves. When it comes to policies you should go with ones that work best in big picture instead of trying to force policies that don't work because they belong ideology you like generally.
  16. Left-right divide is what anybody doing the divide wants to it to be. Origins of the divide comes from French Revolution, wikipedia has pretty good article about origins of left-right political spectrum: "The terms "left" and "right" appeared during the French Revolution of 1789 when members of the National Assembly divided into supporters of the king to the president's right and supporters of the revolution to his left. ... The terms "left" and "right" were not used to refer to political ideology per se, but only to seating in the legislature. After 1848, the main opposing camps were the "democratic socialists" and the "reactionaries" who used red and white flags to identify their party affiliation. With the establishment of the Third Republic in 1871, the terms were adopted by political parties: the Republican Left, the Centre Right and the Centre Left (1871) and the Extreme Left (1876) and Radical Left (1881). The beliefs of the group called the Radical Left were actually closer to the Centre Left than the beliefs of those called the Extreme Left. Beginning in the early twentieth century, the terms "left" and "right" came to be associated with specific political ideologies and were used to describe citizens' political beliefs, gradually replacing the terms "reds" and "the reaction". Those on the Left often called themselves "republicans", while those on the Right often called themselves "conservatives". The words Left and Right were at first used by their opponents as slurs. By 1914, the Left half of the legislature in France was composed of Unified Socialists, Republican Socialists and Socialist Radicals, while the parties that were called "Left" now sat on the right side. The use of the words Left and Right spread from France to other countries and came to be applied to a large number of political parties worldwide, which often differed in their political beliefs. There was asymmetry in the use of the terms Left and Right by the opposing sides. The Right mostly denied that the left–right spectrum was meaningful because they saw it as artificial and damaging to unity. However, the Left, seeking to change society, promoted the distinction. As Alain observed in 1931: "When people ask me if the division between parties of the Right and parties of the Left, men of the Right and men of the Left, still makes sense, the first thing that comes to mind is that the person asking the question is certainly not a man of the Left." In British politics, the terms "right" and "left" came into common use for the first time in the late 1930s in debates over the Spanish Civil War. The Scottish sociologist Robert M. MacIver noted in The Web of Government (1947): The right is always the party sector associated with the interests of the upper or dominant classes, the left the sector expressive of the lower economic or social classes, and the centre that of the middle classes. Historically this criterion seems acceptable. The conservative right has defended entrenched prerogatives, privileges and powers; the left has attacked them. The right has been more favorable to the aristocratic position, to the hierarchy of birth or of wealth; the left has fought for the equalization of advantage or of opportunity, for the claims of the less advantaged. Defence and attack have met, under democratic conditions, not in the name of class but in the name of principle; but the opposing principles have broadly corresponded to the interests of the different classes." Ideological groupings Generally, the left-wing is characterized by an emphasis on "ideas such as freedom, equality, fraternity, rights, progress, reform and internationalism" while the right-wing is characterized by an emphasis on "notions such as authority, hierarchy, order, duty, tradition, reaction and nationalism". Political scientists and other analysts regard the left as including anarchists, communists, socialists, democratic socialists, social democrats, left-libertarians, progressives and social liberals. Movements for racial equality and trade unionism have also been associated with the left. Political scientists and other analysts regard the right as including conservatives, right-libertarians, neoconservatives, imperialists, monarchists, fascists, reactionaries and traditionalists. A number of significant political movements do not fit precisely into the left-right spectrum, including Christian democracy, feminism, and regionalism. Though nationalism is often regarded as a right-wing doctrine, many nationalists favor egalitarian distributions of resources. There are also "liberal nationalists". Populism is regarded as having both left-wing and right-wing manifestations in the form of left-wing populism and right-wing populism, respectively. Green politics is often regarded as a movement of the left, but in some ways the green movement is difficult to definitively categorize as left or right." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Left–right_political_spectrum But now days left-right division is become easier. As you need only to pick either left or right and then everything that you like is either left or right depending on what you pick and then everything you don't like belong to other option.
  17. Yes in case that changing stance means that they will add reason for block in tweets in which they have blocked the URL to New York Post article
  18. That is just simply bull****. There was no war when Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact was made and both parties were aggressors in war that followed said agreement. Also western nations made pacts with USSR and they even sold them lots of the weapons that they used in their invasion. And US for example traded lot with Soviet union after 1933, which made it possible that USSR was able to build it industries. Also still in beginning of 1939 France and UK were seeking military alliance with USSR after Germany took over the Sudetenland, but those ended in May when Molotov become the foreign minister as Molotov was skeptic towards France and UK and saw better opportunities in dealing with Germany
  19. https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/10/12/california-illegal-ballot-boxes/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=wp_main "The California GOP has pushed voters to pop their mail-in ballots inside. Social media posts have advertised their locations, and one regional field director posted a photo to Twitter on Friday showing him holding a ballot in front of one of the boxes. “Doing my part and voting early,” Jordan Tygh wrote in the now-deleted tweet, which was reviewed by The Washington Post before it was removed. “DM me for convenient locations to drop your ballot off at!” But those containers, which were first reported by the Orange County Register and KCAL, are not county-authorized ballot drop-off sites. In fact, the unofficial boxes are against the law, state officials said Sunday. Erecting or advertising unofficial ballot boxes could be a felony that carries a two-to-four-year prison sentence, according to the secretary of state’s office." It seems that Democrats just don't understand that Republicans are law and order and also ballot boxes are people
  20. Probably first winner who has given any doubt that they aren't deserving the prize
  21. It is because god emperor protects america
  22. Chavez has done lots of things to destroy Venezuela's oil industry (like in 2005 selling oil to US 40% below market price), but he is not responsible of nationalization of Venezuela's oil industry and kicking out foreign companies "Under the presidency of Carlos Andrés Pérez, whose economic plan, "La Gran Venezuela", called for the nationalization of the oil industry, Venezuela officially nationalized its oil industry on 1 January 1976 at the site of Zumaque oilwell 1 (Mene Grande). This was the birth of Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA). All foreign oil companies that once did business in Venezuela were replaced by Venezuelan companies, such as Lagoven (Standard Oil), Maraven (Shell), and Llavonen (Mobil)."
  23. Number of confirmed covid-19 cases world wide: 34,410,636 Number of deaths by covid-19: 1,022,787 So survival rate is currently 97% Suvival rate in USA is only 0.1 percent better
  24. People joked about debates over zoom, after the debate, but looks like that it may actually be only way how remaining debates can be organized now
  25. Personally I probably will get richer if Trump is elected again as current republican and Trump policies have actually increased Finnish products and services ability compete in European markets. Meaning his trade war with EU hurts our american competition on European markets and USA's sanctions against Russia has made Finland even bigger port to Russian markets, like they ship sneakers from China to Finland so that they can be imported to Russia. And sanctions and threats against Chines companies has given Nokia ability to grab quite lot European 5G contracts and so on. But Trump's presidency has made it for China, Russia and Turkey to break international agreements and do their power and land grab politics. Which probably lead unrest all over the world. But I am not sure if Biden will make any difference because current state of US's domestic politics will guarantee that next president does not have time/ability to do effective foreign politics.
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