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Everything posted by Elerond
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Free speech is about government preventing people expressing their opinions, which includes not publishing messages from the government. So in this case freedom of speech is on side of YT and against RT, which is government owned media and government that owns it prevents people expressing their opinions in multitude of ways.
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Because they are told that Ukraine attacked them, it is not like they are getting any real information what happened
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Ideological wars have tendency to go on even when it would have been reasonable to end them years earlier. Like for example Vietnam war, Soviet-Afghanistan war. Super powers continue losing wars for decades even though they have little to nothing to gain.
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Just bring some refugees from middle east or africa and you find that people very much have "European Identity" European may treat people from some areas of Europe as ****, but during crisis we see that even worst Europeans are much more preferred than people from elsewhere. Even the thousands and thousands Russians that currently leave their country and pour in EU don't cause any short demands to close borders like couple thousand refugees from Syria in Belarus caused. But in Europe it is important to know that people identify first by their nationality and then by their bloc/s and then as European.
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On 6 May 1992 Parliament of Republic of Crimea former Crimean Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic changed constitution of Crimea so that it says that Crimea is part of Ukraine. In 1994 Russia, UK and USA and recognized Crimea legally part of Ukraine in Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances which they signed.
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Things have changed from 60s, in way that both USA and Russia have strategic nuclear weapons that can be shot from anywhere in world to anywhere in world. So close proximity of military bases and nuclear weapons has quite little impact to MAD
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I fear that Russian offer doesn't have room for negotiations, but if Ukraine refuses they increase amount they bomb civilian targets until Ukraine submits to their demands, as Russia knows that no one is coming to help Ukraine.
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It means that there can't be any armed forces in the country. Similar situation as in Finland's autonomic territory Åland/Ahvenanmaa, which Russia still supervises
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Russia needs to agree all deals Ukraine makes to ensure that they don't join any bloc
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Russia demands demilitarization of Ukraine
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Like Russian promise to ensure Ukraine territorial integrity if they give up their Soviet era nuclear weapons. I am not sure how high Ukraine's trust towards Russian guarantees is these days
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They can do only bilateral agreements that Russia approves
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No fly zone would mean actual military presence from Nato and willingness to shoot down any Russian/Ukraine air craft that breaks the no fly zone, so Nato would become defacto party of conflict which is what Zelensky hopes because for him it would mean that Ukraine would not need to fight alone against Russia.
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But they aren't exporting significant amounts to Africa
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Russia exports over half of its fertilizers in five countries; Brazil (21%) , China (~10%) , USA (~9%), Estonia+Finland (~9%). Exports to India have in past months surpassed exports to Estonia and Finland. China is world biggest fertilizer producer, USA is second biggest. Russia is forth with about 9% of world fertilizer production Considering that Russia tries to keep China, India and Brazil not joining with West, I am not sure how comprehensive their ban will be
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There is no prospect that conflict will end any time soon Russia already has started to use oil and gas directly as counter to western sanctions, so no worries, they will be eventually be targeted with current course
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Long running energy crisis in Europe that become worse because of war start by Russia even though war has not yet impacted oil or gas production in Russia or deliveries to Europe, but markets see hard times in future, which caused problems to Citigroup because its analysts saw possibility for gamble and were hoping scenario where crisis is solved by OPEC increasing its production and Nord Stream 2 getting green light. There is high change that their gamble would have caused them big losses even without Russian invasion to Ukraine. So what enabled Citigroup to do such high risk gamble on markets?
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But root cause is not oil price pike, but than big investment banks are allowed to do massive gambles with funds they don't own
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This will cause massive impact on Russian trade. Maersk dominates Baltic Sea shipping and containers https://www.reuters.com/business/worlds-biggest-container-lines-suspend-shipping-russia-2022-03-01/
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"Citigroup analysts predicted last month that Brent oil prices would fall 18% to 20% by the second half of the year, and established a short position on December Brent futures, recommending that investors sell Brent at $82.39 a barrel. They wrote that they had “high confidence” in the trade. The stop loss on the trade was $92, a level that it crossed on Wednesday as Brent futures soared to new highs. The trade lost 11.5%." https://www.barrons.com/articles/prominent-oil-bear-throws-in-the-towel-others-are-ramping-up-short-bets-51646247617 Failure to read world situation and making gamble investments has habit to bite people asses
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It depends how you look at it, taxpayers money come from same place where all other money comes, from nothing. European central bank will just create more euros that it will loan to member states. Which can impact tax payers by causing inflation, which then will be answered by increasing interest rates, which will tie more money in banks, but as long as Europe is able to trade its goods and services its central banks can do their magic tricks with money that appears from nothing and keep economy running. Which of course does not mean that people don't feel some effects as it takes times to economy to balance itself.
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OPEC quotas exist to keep oil price high, but if it goes sky high they will increase it so that they don't lose markets to other oil producers or alternatives It is logistics that is main reason why Europe is so relied on Russian gas and oil. Economic pain can be compensated with new recovery fund or similar support program. But money doesn't increase capacity of Europe harbors and number of oil/gas tankers in world
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Considering that most oil producers don't produce oil even with half of their capacity, it doesn't take that long to increase oil production. Europe buys oil from Russia because they sold it cheap compared to others
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Also Greece and UK are missing
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There was ongoing civil war in Ukraine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conflicts_in_Europe
