Bartimaeus

Seems like the expectation is that Biden's final margin will be a bit more than the current ~3.5 million, though I'm not sure by how much more. Strongly doubt Trump wins Nevada, but we'll have a better idea tonight when they release a batch of the remaining votes (with the final tally supposed to come tomorrow). The expectation is that the overall race will be officially projected tonight after Nevada and Arizona get more of their last batches in, unless the numbers are unusually good for Trump (which nobody of any import seems to be expecting them to be), rendering PA and GA moot except for making sure faithless electors can't toss the race.

Michigan officially called for Biden. Expected to hold on to Nevada and Arizona based on where the remaining votes are, Georgia and Pennsylvania are still toss-ups with expected narrow Biden victories. However, Michigan being called for Biden means he officially just needs Nevada and Arizona, as that makes a perfect 270. Winning one or both of the others would surely help ensure a more peaceful transition, though.

It's really weird how one party whose leader specifically told everyone not to use mail-in ballots doesn't have as many mail-in ballots as the leader of the party who told everyone to use mail-in ballots. Can science really explain this phenomenon? 🤔

Though it looks like a few states will be outside of the margin of error, such as Wisconsin. It was definitely not a great polling cycle again (not laughably terrible, but notably off), it seems like there is...something not being accounted for in measuring Republican turnout.

People have been saying that there wasn't a "blue wave", but from what I can see and from what's likely to be the end total number of votes, there has actually been a huge one, larger than that of 2008. However, what's been unexpected is that there has also been a large red wave to counteract it as well (especially focused in key swing states). Not enough of one to win the presidency, but certainly to make it really freaking close in the electoral college. Wisconsin's Secretary of State has said they do not believe there are any more votes left to count. Even if there were errors (likely), past recounts have suggested that they'll likely change the results by maybe a few hundred, possibly as much as a thousand...not ten thousand-plus. Feeling pretty comfortable here in the presidential election. Still waiting on Maine and Georgia to truly call it for the Senate - I'd be very happy with a 50-50 split with a Democratic president. I do not want to have to see Mitch McConnell's despicable face for the next two years, and a 50-50 split would give them the ability to pass some of the most popular stuff, but not much more. ...But I think 49-51 looks more realistic at this point.

Well, I'm heading to bed. It looks fairly likely (but not certain) that Biden has won, and I can fall asleep soundly on that. God have mercy on our souls.

Refer to my signature...and then stick "forums.obsidian.net##.ipsType_light.ipsComment_ignored.ipsComment" in your uBlock filters, . (e): Biden ahead in Wisconsin right now, expectation seems to be that he'll win there, though it'll be close. Still awaiting a number of urban batches of votes in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. If Biden does indeed win Wisconsin, then he only needs one of those three to clinch 270. (e): "This is vaguely reminiscent of 11 p.m. in 2016 ... but in reverse (and in slow motion): Biden’s the narrow favorite in PA, WI, MI, AZ, NV, GA, and it could take a while." (e): Also, one interesting thing about coverage of this - Fox, in my opinion, had the best coverage of any of the major networks (just in terms of quality of production), and oddly has been aggressively fair towards Biden, and has pre-emptively called multiple races for him (such as Arizona) that no-one else has while giving positive projections of remaining votes for him when he's been seemingly down big in states like Wisconsin. Not sure why, but they've refused to feed into Trump's narrative of cheating mail-in ballots or whatever such he's been squawking about.

Nah. I'll agree that they screwed him in a few different ways the first time, but they did not really screw him this time. They maneuvered against him, yeah, but the only reason he was ever projected to stand a chance of winning was because the field was so incredibly fractured between the moderates. If you can't win 50% of the vote in what was effectively a two man race, then that's your own electoral weakness. I guess Elizabeth Warren did stay in the race while every other moderate dropped out on the night before Super Tuesday which did sort of mildly screw him, but I really don't think it would've made much of a difference - Biden rocked him. Don't get me wrong, Bernie is 100% my guy, but he specifically campaigned on appealing to and turning out the youth vote, and they more or less completely ignored his existence. We get who we deserve, for better...for worse.

I have never understood it either - he personifies literally everything that is the opposite of what I'd consider to be charisma. Different strokes for different folks, I know, but what the actual hell?

Ha, yeah, that's almost literally the same exact CPU (just the weird Devil Canyon's "refresh" version of it). The 32 thread 5950X might, uh, be slightly better compared to either, . I am not looking to upgrade to something *quite* that ridiculous, probably more like a 5800X. ...Although the 5900X at MSRP is only $100 more for 50% more cores/threads, which is a ridiculous value, so it might just come down to actual prices at the time of purchasing.

One of my most horrific mistakes as a general PC person was when I was about 15 years old. I was putting together my second ever self-built system, but was having trouble getting it to POST - it was just a black screen hang on boot. I still don't know exactly what happened, but I decided to shut down the system and re-seat the RAM to see if that was it, since it's a semi-common problem that the RAM isn't seated quite right for random boot issues like this. Only...when I powered it down, it uh, didn't actually power down, and I somehow completely failed to notice that (seriously, the fan on the CPU was still going!) as I ripped the first RAM module out of the live system. The terrible sounds the system made as I was doing that were kind of traumatizing. Luckily for me, the system did not appear to sustain any kind of damage, and that did actually end up seemingly being the problem, as everything worked fine after I re-seated them (and in fact, everything with that system besides the GPU still works to this day, even the kind of low-ish end PSU I bought at the time). Haven't ever screwed around with making sure the power is completely off (and drained!) since then.

I really need a new CPU just for encoding stuff, my i7-4770k has been making it very difficult and more time-consuming than it needs to be as of the past couple of years. Still looking to upgrade to a Ryzen within the next year or so...

I would agree that it looks like NC is likely going to Trump (outside of a deluge of late Democrat-favoring mail-in ballots a la the Arizona senate race 2 year ago), but strongly disagree on Georgia: the top analytics guys are still (albeit very narrowly) favoring Biden there, and it's going to be really close either way it ends: very likely within 0.5 points.

Yes, if he does win Michigan, then Biden would need to win in Georgia to make up for it (note: the New York Times, which has had Georgia as one of its special ultra-analyzed states looking at votes cast vs. expected votes on a precinct by precinct level, currently has Georgia in a dead heat with Biden having a very small 0.3 lead as of 85% of counting - much too close to call). But it is not currently expected that Trump will win Michigan - the day-of votes do favor Trump, but it is expected that the mail-in votes will push it back to Biden (and the same is true with Pennsylvania, albeit closer). (e): 0.4 expected lead for Biden with 91% counted in Georgia. It's going to be close.

More or less agreeing with Zoraptor here: from where the analytics and I are sitting, the race has appeared to tilt towards Biden. I don't know how everything will work out with Trumps' plans to stay in the White House no matter the results, but with Biden's Arizona victory (although perhaps a tad bit presumptive by Fox in calling it so early), Biden only needs to get the rest of what he is heavily expected to get in order to win. He does not need PA, GA, or NC, although those three would certainly be nice and there are strong indications that he could win in each of those. I am a lot more apprehensive about getting at least 50-50 control of the Senate.

Yep, which is why though Florida wasn't officially called early, it was very obvious when Miami (which has historically been Democrats' greatest stronghold in the state) went for Biden waaay less than it did for Clinton (and remember that Clinton lost 4 years ago, so). @the_dog_days Pennsylvania will take a while because it doesn't start counting mail-in ballots until...today? After today? Florida, meanwhile, counted all of them in advance.

Each state has their own individual amount of electoral votes as determined by their population. Winning Republican North Dakota (about 700k population) is only worth 3 such electoral votes, while winning Democrat California (39 million) is worth 55. The electoral college does skew towards giving smaller states more electoral voting power, though. If you calculate California vs North Dakota, for example, California has about 55 times the population but only about 18 times the electoral votes. It's much, much worse for the Senate, our most important legislative body, where each state only has two senatorial seats regardless of population, which means California's two senators represent an average of about 19.5 million people each, while North Dakota's is about 350k people each.

Almost certainly, based on analytics breaking down the voting tendencies on a precinct by precinct basis. It's all but impossible for Biden to catch up.

It may bode poorly for Biden that Trump has won Florida so early.

I recognized only The Residents and Tangerine Dream. It's weird to think that there's just so much stuff out there, whether movies, music, books, shows, games, whatever, that it's just impossible to ever catch up on everything that is/was considered to be "culturally relevant". There's just too much.

I don't understand your question: what would they be wrong about? 538 claims to be a statistical model estimating the chances of certain outcomes happening based on past outcomes in similar circumstances (or at least situation they *think* are similar), not any kind of magical predictor saying that one thing will happen or another won't. The chances of rolling a 1 on a ten-sided die is 1/10, which is to say not particularly likely, but certainly within the realm of reason. You roll that die, and maybe it's a 1...or maybe it's a 10. Either way, you're not wrong for calculating the chances. Statistics, not magical prediction.

Check out Photopea: it's a shockingly competent and free Photoshop knockoff (and even has some features that Photoshop doesn't have, as well as support for some newer filetypes that Photoshop has refused to support, like the increasingly popular .webp). My only complaint is that there's no desktop version, and it has to be run through the browser...but even with that caveat, it's a better alternative to Photoshop than anything else I've tried so far.

Except for the very few "serious mode" episodes I've seen so far, all of the premises of every episode have been absurd, but in a show where you have an evil cabal of alien supervillains attempting to corrupt and take over the world if not for a handful of teenage girls all living within one square mile of each other that the villains could easily avoid by just taking their plans slightly outside of that one square mile, it's really more about what silliness you can get out of those premises than what the premises themselves are, . That "lose weight" episode was probably my favorite early season 1 episode and was when I realized this show could be great, though. One thing I really like so far is that there are literally no characters that I dislike or even feel particularly ambivalent towards. Every character has had their own kind of charm as well as niche to fill. That is an incredibly rare feeling for a show for me, and makes it so I've never been bored or annoyed when an episode suddenly pivots to or revolves around a particular character. Hoping that stays true, although from what you implied, it might not in later seasons!

How different are they from the first? For "fun", I actually rewatched the first few episodes with the DIC dubs, because I realized that the funny clips I had seen from the show were actually from that original dub. Usagi herself is...okay, but almost literally every other character I heard was somewhere between poor and terrible. Special shout-out to Naru (...who is renamed to "Molly" in the DIC dub) whose weird, terrible, and fake-sounding southern drawl makes me want harm myself every time she talks, . The clips on YouTube that I'd seen of this dub were much later into the show, and I can only presume that they got a little better as time went on (and in fact, I'm pretty sure some of the voice actors must've changed entirely, as Usagi herself as well as Tuxedo Mask don't sound at all like what I heard of them).

Trying to upload my avatar keeps screwing up its colors. It should look like this: ...but instead looks like this: A strong color tone shift, and I'm not certain why, since the end image is still a .png (and a legitimate one at that from examining it closely in Photoshop, even if it is downscaled). Not a huge deal, but seems/looks weird. Latest version of Firefox.