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Guard Dog

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    Ukraine Conflict - Es ist nichts schrecklicher als eine tätige Unwissenheit

    in Way Off-Topic

    Posted · Edited by Guard Dog

    On 4/11/2022 at 5:51 PM, Gromnir said:

     

    @Guard Dog is not a civil engineer, correct? even so, am suspecting he could at least speak to the difficulties o' undertaking the effort to rebuild roads in an area where such infrastructure were recent destroyed by significant flooding. am not pretending to be an expert in this area, so will defer to those with knowledge, but one assumes the army corps o' engineers (federal) is precise the folks who could tackle such a task. expect puerto ricans, the folks hit by successive hurricanes, to rebuild roads and communication infrastructure relative quick sounds like a bridge too far demand, but again, am genuine unsure what is required to undertake and complete such tasks. heck, am not even certain what is the appropriate prioritization o' tasks. is possible a bunch o' locals with wheel barrows, pickups and hand tools may manage the jobs? 

    HA! Good Fun!

     

    No sir, I'm an electronics engineer by trade and education. But I did get 5 years of experience in water management and ecology plus a little CE working for the mostly great state of TN. 

    The first step will be getting electrical power restored to the eastern part of the country. Ukraine has 15 nuclear power plants. Six are in the hands of the Russians and three are damaged and inoperable according to AP. I doubt the Russians will leave the six they control in working condition. But even if they did the majority of the power infrastructure is destroyed in the eastern part of the country. Towers, substations, lines are largely destroyed.  Just as a comparison following Hurricane Maria 88% of Puerto Rico was without electrical power. The power generation capability was still mostly intact (with the notable exception of the Guajataca Dam) so it was lines, substations and towers that needed to be replaced. Restoration took a massive effort by FEMA, Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority, the Army Corps of Engineers, numerous US and Mexican based power companies and Co-Ops and the State of Florida, Georgia, and other state governments. It took two years before power was restored. Ukraine is likely much worse off. 

    Power is the cornerstone on which all other endeavors rests. The next is fresh water. Heavy munitions use and shattered buildings, vehicles, industrial infrastructure and storage will have contaminated the soil. It's spring now. Snows are melting and runoff is reaching the natural water sources and aquifers so the water will be contaminated if it isn't already. I'd imagine the water treatment plants in the east are heavily damaged if not destroyed. So even when electricity has been restored this challenge must be confronted. Right now without water treatment there is no sewage and wastewater management so that is going to contribute to the problem and lead to disease outbreak an other miseries like pests and parasites. 

    It's been two months. The people in the war zone are running out of everything. So humanitarian aid is needed immediately and a hell of a lot of it. Think of the effort that went in to the Berlin Airlift and multiply that by 20. 

    Then there is the long term costs. Because of the demand placed by explosive growth in China there is  world wide pressure on construction supplies like lumber and concrete.  This was something we had to deal with in my last job. Add to that COVID labor shortages and supply is lagging demand by almost a year as of February last year. 

    After Hurricane Maria the population of Puerto Rico declined by almost 12%. A lot of people moved to the US and stayed. There is absolutely no way to know how many people have fled Ukraine, been killed or deported/kidnapped by the Russians, but it's likely going to be a lot. And even after the war is over more will die from exposure, lack of medical services, etc. That will mean fewer hands to do the work. It also means the Ukrainian economy will be recovering for years because, like most European nations, it has a transactional economy that required consumers. The longer this goes on the worse it will get because the refugees in other nations will begin building new lives where they are and be unwilling to return to a shattered country where their homes and lives are gone. 

    Like you said the devastation that will be left behind once hostilities cease is incalculable. It will require a multinational effort, trillions of dollars worth of relief and literally decades to rebuild. And likely none of it happens as long as Russia is still Russia and sitting right next door undermining the whole thing. And there is very little the rest of the world can do about that.

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    The All Things Political Topic - Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is an absurd one

    in Way Off-Topic

    Posted

    Partisan ‘doom loop’? The answer is more parties, this group says

    I'm all for this. But it will never happen. The one thing Democrats and Republicans agree on (actually they agree on pretty much everything they just want to be in charge and stymie the other party) is that the clubhouse of power is theirs and theirs alone and they zealously guard the door.

    Funny Stuff Cantina

    in Way Off-Topic

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Chilloutman said:

    I guess this is too american for me

    Yeah this one does not translate well outside the US. Actually is doesn't really translate well IN the US except in the south & midwest. Both are places you go after the bars all close to eat that weird drunk meal at 3 AM while trying to sober up enough to find your way home. 

    • Thanks 4

    The All Things Political Topic - Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is an absurd one

    in Way Off-Topic

    Posted

    12 hours ago, alanschu said:

    I have heard that the reconstruction stuff def ended up waffling a lot and most (seriousish) history types I know point at that being pretty impactful!

    Reconstruction following the US Civil War had it's positives and negatives. Far more of the latter though. It ended up being an object lesson of well intentioned but badly managed government.  It a shame Lincoln was murdered. Johnson was not a capable President and held no influence over the Congress which was demanding a much more punitive post war plan than the one originally envisioned. Grant, for all of his leadership and popularity could not control the people in his own administration and was extremely inconsistent in dealing the the problems in the southern states. The Congress wanted  it too heavy handed. Grant wasn't heavy handed enough. Johnson was useless. I suspect Lincoln could have struck the right tone had things well on the way before he left office. It's hard to say. 

    One good thing that did come of it was the lessons learned that were eventually applied to the Marshall Plan.

    • Thanks 1

    What You've Done Today - Always You Must Meddle, Looking For Trouble Where None Exists.

    in Way Off-Topic

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Gromnir said:

    the field of dreams game from last year were the only complete baseball game we has seen in decades. we gave up on baseball during the strike season in 94 and have rare looked back. 'course we got lucky the field o' dreams game were so good... can likely go w/o baseball for another quarter century. 

    we do recall how watching a giants games during the summer at candlestick park while we were in college were one o' our worst baseball memories... 'cause o' the cold.  got unexpected fog and wind while wearing a t-shirt and shorts? were embarrassing for a guy who lived through blizzards in the dakotas and chicago, but were a summer game at candlestick which emasculated us. 

    HA! Good Fun!

    I believe it was Mark Twain who said the coldest winter he'd ever known as one summer in San Francisco.

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