Fighting breaks out in South Ossetia

[Moatilliatta]

There is that old joke about a russian being captured by cannibals and using his last wish asking to be hit by one of them, only then would he pull forth a kalashnikov because "russians aren't aggressors".

 

The BBC is being awesome.

[Walsingham]

Dagnabbit, how I yearn for the old days, when our enemies were also their own enemies!

 

Interesting article, Moati. I guessthat wrecks my points above!

[Brdavs]

Hilarious to see that a thread about a war between Russia and Georgie has its share of US bashing. LOL

 

Only logical considering Georgias has one of those "democratic" heavily supported & mentored to come to power regiemes that jump through hoops heh...

 

So... Russai *does* believe in regime change based on force? K, then. I guess all their whining about Iraq was bull? Yup, it's as I thought. Yet, people seem to be shrugging their shoulders over this while theyw ere crying blooody murder when the US and others were doing it? L0L

 

So since you`ve allways believed in the prectice why cry bloody murder now when Russians are following suit? lol? See it works perfectly the same both ways... Round and round and round it goes, where it stops nobody knows.

 

 

 

 

But seriously...

 

This has now turned to a full scale plickwaving contest between Russia and the U.S. Its about a oil rich/transition area, about NATO encircling Russia, about heavily western backed regiemes being "instated" in the areas Russia considers strategically paramount to its "national security", about testing the Moscows/Medvedevs resolve etc. In the end both the georgians and ossetians got shafted by the dancing bear and the eagle respectivly lol. But what else is new? Life aint hollywood.

 

Now personally, I rank US claims of Russians working on a "forcible regieme change" in the same category as I do Russian claims of an attempted "genocide". Loads of air, grain of trouth.

Wheres I have no doubt that the Georgians wouldnt "mind" all of the ossetians packing up and "migrating" over the Russian border thus eliminating the pesky minority seeking independance problem (apparently thats what they attempted in the first place lol) I doubt they`d be constructing furnaces and gas chambers heh...

Likewise I have no doubt whatsoever Russia would`t "mind" seeing Saakashvili washed away by his expedition and the fallback of it(in favour of something more "THIS user friendly" if you catch my drift), not at all ulikely since it`d be hard to replicate the martial law crackdown on oposition/media like during the last protests under all this internationall scrutiny). But I seriously doubt their "plan of attack" (pun intended heh) is to occupy the whole of Georgia Iraq style to do so.

 

 

About the vital pipeline... Imvho, thoe I am no expert heh, if Russians wanted to take it out they would have a looong time ago.

But that would have stung west in a bad way. Its faaar more productive just dropping a few bombs a couple of klicks near - it is enough to let the west know their hand is on their only "from Russia independant" pipeline and that they better not "mess" with them nomore cos the oxygen supply can be cut just by squeezing this "esophagus" heh.

Edited August 11, 2008 by Brdavs

[Walsingham]

I don't _think_ I've ever objected to regime change per se (correct me and win a prize). but I do think the regime you change things to is important. I don't know the first thing about how democratic Saakashvilli is, but I can't credit a new forcible pro-Russian regime very highly. If for no better reason than that the Georgians won't look highly on anyone who is acceptable to Russia.

[Moatilliatta]

I haven't read this CNN analysis in its entirety but it seems pretty good.

 

I've also heard news that Russia has invaded Georgia proper. This seems to confirm it. I do wonder now how this is gonna end.

[Walsingham]

One thing is clear from the pictures on the BBC: the soldiers themselves are scared of another Chechnya. They're all riding on the outside of the APCs because they are worried about mines and RPGs.

[Moatilliatta]

Shouldn't they also be worried about gunfire?

 

I wonder if this is gonna affect America's plans for a missile defence system, since part of this seems to be, according to most western news bureaus, in part pent up rage from that and Kosovo.

[Walsingham]

Surely it simply makes it more clear that a general bonhomie doesn't substitute for actual defences.

 

Again, I should put my hand firmly up and admit I misunderstood the timeline. It sems from several sources that Georgia moved in first. On the other hand, it looks as if the Russians may have been waiting for it to go ahead, with only 12 hours passing between the Georgians rolling, and the first heavy units rolling through the tunnel.

 

I don't see it myself, but I concede that maybe this is how Russia felt when NATO rolled against Serbia?

[Moatilliatta]

What I meant is that they're much more willing to drive it further because of those reasons, not that they attacked first or anything. All sources seem to say that Georgia moved first (though no one knows why they would do something like that ), no doubt.

 

I don't see it myself, but I concede that maybe this is how Russia felt when NATO rolled against Serbia?

They might be willing to say that.

[Walsingham]

Well, the brutal truth is that maybe someone ballsed up? I mean Saddam thought he could invade Kuwait and no-one would make a fuss. Maybe the same reason? Unclear messages from State?

[Volourn]

"So since you`ve allways believed in the prectice why cry bloody murder now when Russians are following suit? lol? See it works perfectly the same both ways... Round and round and round it goes, where it stops nobody knows."

 

Eh? I'm not defacto against 'regime change'. But, from what i've seen there's a huge difference between Saddam Hussein who slaughtered Iraqis, wasn't truly democratically elected by those he suppsoeldy represented, ruined his country, and wa sinvolved and multiple wars of his own doing and the Georgian president who was elected (as far as I know) by his fellow Georgians. *shrug*

 

Plus, it reeks of hypocrisy on the Russian part sicne theyw ere against unilateral regime change. At least the Amerikans had support when going into Iraq - upwards of 50 countries actually. Russia has nobody else going in with them. Talk about unilateral. L0L

 

R00fles!

 

P.S. Of course, all countries can be hypocrites including my own. *shrug*

Edited August 11, 2008 by Volourn

[SteveThaiBinh]

I've also heard news that Russia has invaded Georgia proper. This seems to confirm it. I do wonder now how this is gonna end.

I don't think Russia can succeed at regime change. Any democratically-elected Georgian government now is going to be even more anti-Russian than before. I don't think a Russian puppet in Tbilisi is an option either - it would poison relations between Russia and the west even more than Chechnya did, because Russia has crossed an internationally-recognised border this time, and also because it would put the oil pipeline under Russian control. I guess Russia will agree a ceasefire once it's finished scaring the crap out of the world, and South Ossetia will become (remain?) de-facto independent/part of Russia. No change, except that everyone will understand that it will never again be part of Georgia proper.

 

As far as I'm aware, the current Georgian government is indeed democratically elected. Weren't there OSCE observers there during the last elections?