Watching Zimbabwe

[SteveThaiBinh]

 

It looks as if Mugabe just might be on his way out. There's nothing reliable yet, but lots of rumours of contacts between Mugabe's Zanu-PF and the opposition MDC about getting him to flee the country. There can't really be much doubt he's lost the election, but the MDC have played the publicity much more skillfully this time.

 

Zimbabwe really has been an astonishing story of a relatively wealthy, stable country brought to its knees by one man's arrogance. It's also been a disgraceful performance on the part of South Africa's ruling ANC, propping Mugabe up diplomatically while the country fell apart.

 

So, will he stay or will he go? Is Mugabe a hero for winning Zimbabwe's independence or a villain for squandering its wealth? What will happen next?

[Walsingham]

You read any of the reports, mate? He WAS a pretty good guy by all accounts, but he's gone bonkers in a big way. Weak, mumbling, indecisive, then furious. Almost certainly tertiary stage syphilis with associated dementia.

[Gorgon]

He ran the place into the ground, I can't think many examples of a socialist revolution gone this wrong.

[Gorth]

Maybe Pol Pot's Cambodia?

 

He might have been an improvement over Ian Smith once, but the last 15 years sort of voids any good he may done.

[Deadly_Nightshade]

From all accounts, he has insulated himself from reality so effectively that he actually believes in his delusions.

[SteveThaiBinh]

He WAS a pretty good guy by all accounts

By some accounts - there's evidence and opinion on both sides of this. I have a colleague who's a refugee from Mugabe's Zimbabwe, and he says you could always see this coming, even during the supposedly 'good' periods. I've also read pieces that claim the true extent of Mugabe's brutality even in the early years is still to be fully uncovered.

 

Telegraph opinion piece

[Walsingham]

You make a good point, Steve. But revolutions are almost ALWAYS bloody, and insurgencies doubly so, as the comrades purge and slaughter moderates and intellectuals.

[SteveThaiBinh]

Mugabe fights back. He's now started arresting election officials for undercounting his vote. If only Al Gore had thought of that. Again, the MDC is calling for the international community to get more involved, and again, Thabo Mbeki is calling on everyone to do nothing at all.

[Walsingham]

Two words: Hitler Moustache.

[Moatilliatta]

You make a good point, Steve. But revolutions are almost ALWAYS bloody, and insurgencies doubly so, as the comrades purge and slaughter moderates and intellectuals.

Just thought that I would contribute with a quote from a leader in The Economist:

Yet a vicious authoritarian streak was always there - too readily ignored by friends and former foes wanting to give him a fair wind. Two years into office, he supressed dissent in Matabeleland, where many thousands of civilians belonging to a disgruntled minority were massacred. Opposition became harder, and by the end of the decade had been emasculated though not outlawed. He began to tamper with the courts. Corruption began to take hold. Most tellingly, he made too little effort to redistribute the land. The cash provided by Britain and others for the purpose was not even fully spent; and when he did start dishing out land, he gave it to party cronies and top soldiers rather than the landless poor.

I guess you could argue that he was good in the very earliest, but to call him a good guy is to disregard too much.

[Walsingham]

When I call him good I am reliant upon the words of Archbishop Desmond Tutu. But that doesn't mean he's always right.

[Kaftan Barlast]

What African leaders tend to do, unfortunantly, is to seize power and then immediately take huge international loans. These loans go into their own pocket, and when they are toppled by the next dictator wannabe, they bugger off with all the money, leaving the country in massive debt. I think its called the Mubutu syndrome.

 

 

But on a serious note, Mugabe is a dictator who has run the country into the ground and made corruption the political norm. The bloke should be imprisoned along with all his lackeys, otherwise its going to be civil war. A friend of mine has spent time with the UN down there and his opinion is that most african countries would need constant supervision and aid to have even the slightest chance to develop into proper democratic countries.

[Walsingham]

It may be a bit much to credit Ol' Bob with corrupting African politics. It'sa complex issue with many arguments but I subscribe to the rather simplistic view that most African nations could use one more revolution to clean off the leeches!

[Kaftan Barlast]

But wouldnt such a revolution just serve to replace the previous leeches with fresh new ones?

[Walsingham]

But wouldnt such a revolution just serve to replace the previous leeches with fresh new ones?

 

Did I forget to mention I'm an idiot? Sorry. Thought it was obvious.

[Gorgon]

That continent got the worst imperialism has to offer, and hasn't recovered. There is progress measured over centuries, but its slow going.

[Walsingham]

That continent got the worst imperialism has to offer, and hasn't recovered. There is progress measured over centuries, but its slow going.

 

I do hope you're not one of these people, like Miriam Makeba, who maintain Africa was pure goodness and love until the White Devils came.

[Gorgon]

I don't know about that, but you don't have to listen long to Mugabe to realize that he is himself a rather sad ironic victim of imperialism, making the experience of imperialism into a sort of theory of everything when talking about Africa.

 

Theories that try to encompass too much are always wrong, it reminds me of fundamentalist readings of Marx, just like the means of production are not the tealeaves in which you can find an explanation for any eventuality, neither is imperialism, but it is a defining feature of modern African history.

[Walsingham]

I don't know about that, but you don't have to listen long to Mugabe to realize that he is himself a rather sad ironic victim of imperialism, making the experience of imperialism into a sort of theory of everything when talking about Africa.

 

Theories that try to encompass too much are always wrong, it reminds me of fundamentalist readings of Marx, just like the means of production are not the tealeaves in which you can find an explanation for any eventuality, neither is imperialism, but it is a defining feature of modern African history.

 

I agree it would be adness to deny that Imperialism didn't have a crucial role in African history. However, far too many African leaders use it as an excuse for their ruthless greed.

[Gorgon]

Thats because it's a good excuse, and imperialism isn't entirely dead yet either, although it's present incarnation can better be described as the negative effects of globalization and its transnational conglomerates exploiting local resources. Thats not at all unlike merchant companies operating under charter during the worst of imperialism, although they are no longer encouraged by nation states, but operate on their own, without the extremes of slavery and with the added element of caring about their own image.

Edited April 13, 2008 by Gorgon

[Walsingham]

I don't think it IS a good excuse. It's a lame excuse. I mean, look at Liberia. It was set up to be great, but it got ruined by carpet-baggers.

[Gorgon]

A good excuse is still just an excuse, not an explanation.

[SteveThaiBinh]

It looks like Mugabe is going to get away with it. That is, unless Mbeki steps in and does something, but how likely is that?

 

And it all looked so hopeful, for a little while.

[Walsingham]

What I think is more interesting in some ways is WHY he is getting away with it domestically. I mean bouncing Bob can't be controlling everything from inside his rotting braincase. There must be a collage of people wworking in concert with him, feeding the violence and keeping him safe.

 

My own reading on this is that this behind the scenes mob intends to work up enough violence to nail the opposition for a generation in a surprise blood-letting a la Rwanda .Once they have they will stage a coup, shooting Bob and anyone they don't lik in Zanu PF, plus the peopel who know where the orders came from. The real perps claim to be the saviours of freedom and democracy, and live happily ever after in their one party fantasy land.

 

Any takers?

[SteveThaiBinh]

Any takers?

Perhaps. There's already some discussion about whether Mugabe is still really in power or not, or whether we have a military junta with him as a figurehead. That's not something that will necessarily become clear anytime soon, and I don't think they'll shoot him if he's happy enough to remain in place drawing all the attention. I don't think it will get as bad as Rwanda because I don't think they need that to stay in power and it would attract too much international attention and calls for intervention. That said, these things aren't always rational. It's also possible that the 'war veterans' have now been stirred up too much and the government won't be able to restrain them any longer.