Ukraine Conflict - conflict continues

[Zoraptor]

If this war has done anything it's finished off any vestigial respect I had for 'experts'. Which to be fair, wasn't much at all, but still.

Bodies of people who die in bomb incidents on planes are very seldom either burnt or exposed to high temperatures as a result of a bomb*; they almost always have just blunt force/ impact trauma. This is a common mistake people make when they've seen a lot of LE/ propellant explosions which are, basically, a big fire created from something that is designed not to explode violently. Same for fuel: there's a reason your cabin is pressurised at 8500m and engines require a compressor- lack of oxygen- which is exactly what fuel needs to ignite. Despite the reputation of jet fuel it's generally about as ignitable as diesel (indeed the main jet fuel, kerosene, was used as fuel for tractors just like diesel is now and some diesel engines and jet turbines will run on the other fuel fine), not worse than petrol. HE otoh does not create much 'fire'** as that would be counterproductive to its main task. Fire involves a lot of relatively slow and incomplete/ inefficient combustion (hence smoke--> unoxidised carbon) while you want very rapid and complete 'combustion' for a HE; and all it has to do in 99% of cases to bring down a plane is punch a hole in it. If you really want to do that and you're a state security service there are a plethora of ways to do it that will leave no traces on any bodies and no obvious traces on the aircraft anyway, not just bombs.

Still could be a missile of course, and I'd agree if it were there's no chance of it being a case of mistaken identity. If it had been a random plane then with what we've seen the suggestion would be either bomb or far more likely a mechanical issue but it wasn't a random plane.

*on the ground is more likely. Think of it this way, while our experience of flying is in a high oxygen low (apparent) velocity environment in which a fire would flourish as soon as a hole is made in the plane by a bomb all the air gets sucked out and at very high speed--> fire in low oxygen environment and with very high velocity winds --> fire goes out.

**hence HiMARS having aluminium powder added to their explosive warheads to enhance heat/ incendiary effects. Which, of course, was forgotten completely when it came to the Olenivka Prison explosion.

8 hours ago, Malcador said:

Strange concern over an extra judicial killing, really.  I guess another irregular verb

Especially when the target was Prigo. One suspects all the hand wringing over the poor flight attendant and pilots would stop pretty damn quick if Ukraine claimed responsibility.

Though one doesn't really need to suspect given the completely different attitude towards the truck driver Ukraine atomised in the Kerch Bridge attack. At least the FA and pilots were Wagner employees...

[BruceVC]

7 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

If this war has done anything it's finished off any vestigial respect I had for 'experts'. Which to be fair, wasn't much at all, but still.

 

Why who specifically did you use to respect that since the war started you dont respect anymore?

Im sorry to hear that, its terrible to be disappointed by people we admire and respect 

I accept commentators or institutions can make mistakes so Im more forgiving. But I dont  support them if they make constant mistakes or push propaganda and I dont take state controlled media houses as seriously as  private media houses in certain reporting 

 

[Zoraptor]

To be fair in this case whether it was a missile or not is peripheral rather than fundamental, it's just indicative of some bad reasoning. The only fundamentals are if it was an accident or deliberate, and if the latter who did it.

But; people do desperately want it to be a missile because that's definitive on both counts ie that would make it deliberate and done by Russia. And there's been an awful lot of experts working back from the conclusion they want rather than working from the evidence over the course of this war over multiple different issues and with multiple examples of experts ignoring or not knowing stuff they really ought to. You thus end up with two conclusions; either they're not experts but 'experts' or they're being deliberately dishonest. The first explanation seems more... charitable.

[xzar_monty]

30 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

But; people do desperately want it to be a missile because that's definitive on both counts ie that would make it deliberate and done by Russia.

I don't see that over here; the experts are simply debating whether it was a bomb or a missile. There was the same discrepancy with the Kerch bridge bombing: the possibility of a suicide / homicide mission was taken into account quite early on in our media.

Experts can be quite terrible, though, no question, and we've had plenty of instances of all kinds of silliness since Peace In Our Time or whatever. In fact, there's a quote somewhere to the effect of "My son, you would be surprised to learn how little sense and understanding the world is ruled with", though I can't remember where. (And yes, I know political rulers and technical experts are not the same thing.)

Edited August 25, 2023 by xzar_monty

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:

To be fair in this case whether it was a missile or not is peripheral rather than fundamental, it's just indicative of some bad reasoning. The only fundamentals are if it was an accident or deliberate, and if the latter who did it.

But; people do desperately want it to be a missile because that's definitive on both counts ie that would make it deliberate and done by Russia. And there's been an awful lot of experts working back from the conclusion they want rather than working from the evidence over the course of this war over multiple different issues and with multiple examples of experts ignoring or not knowing stuff they really ought to. You thus end up with two conclusions; either they're not experts but 'experts' or they're being deliberately dishonest. The first explanation seems more... charitable.

Seriously, Putin has killed and assassinated political dissenters and Oligarchs  for years. There is a long list. 

If Putin didnt authorize it then he isnt in control of the military or the FSB and I find that hard to believe. The sustainability of any autocracy requires control of the military and particularly around extra-judiciary killings  if they practised by the state. If you look at NK or China nothing happens in those countries if the state isnt aware of it 

I am not saying its a missile or a bomb, Im saying Putin is behind it. Who else would have the ability or resources to do that within Russia? 

 

[Zoraptor]

1 hour ago, xzar_monty said:

I don't see that over here; the experts are simply debating whether it was a bomb or a missile.

Not everyone in anglo media is saying that it was a missile either, though it was certainly popular with certain groups. The ones who are* are tending to use evidence they wouldn't use in a more neutral situation and doing so because it makes a nice tidy story though.

*maybe were, now, since the US came out and said it wasn't a missile. I haven't really been paying attention to it today.

[Gorth]

More special military operation this way...