nfl 2021-2022

[Gromnir]

2021 NFL Draft Tracker - Prospects | NFL.com

we got no predictions for future hall of famers.

trevor lawrence is the uncontested #1 prospect, but we never predict qbs to the hof. in fact, am thinking the safest draft prediction for any year o' the draft is that the worst move will be a team trading up to take a qb. trevor lawrence looks like he has all the tools. is no good reason to think trevor lawrence will not succeed save for biggest hurdle o' going to jax. david carr were similar can't miss. 

kyle pitts is a physical freak at te and he had excellent production at florida-- best player regardless o' position in our estimation.

best lineman is penei sewell, a young guy from university of oregon who has all they physical talent needed but needs to work on run blocking, general technique and film study. 

caleb farley were considered a top 5 overall prospect at the end o' the college season. will be perhaps the fourth or fifth cb taken. 

mac jones is considered ~40th best prospect by most prognosticators, but he might go #3. mac jones has good/excellent accuracy, so his basement is better than a few o' the prospects who is considered better qbs. dunno.

will be a curious draft, and am certain some team will give up too much to grab a qb.

HA! Good Fun!

 

[Keyrock]

Kyle Pitts is the "safest" pick. There's no such thing as a sure pick, but Pitts is as close to one as they come. He's not a QB, but Tight End is arguably the 2nd most valuable position in the current NFL. Barring injury, his ceiling is Antonio Gates and his basement is Travis Kelce.

Edited April 29, 2021 by Keyrock

[Bartimaeus]

The floor is Travis Kelce, the ceiling is Antonio Gates? Not really allowing for whole lot of range there, given Antonio Gates is considered to be a top 5 TE of all time, while Travis Kelce...already has had a HoF career himself and will likely finish close to around the same spot as Gates, .

[Keyrock]

Antonio Gates is IMHO the second greatest TE ever, Travis Kelce will likely be top 10, definitely top 15 all-time when all is said and done. The point is, barring something freakish happening, Kyle Pitts is going to be great. His athleticism is off the charts and he has good instincts to boot. He has room to improve as a blocker, but as a pass catcher he's already great. He's going to be an All-Pro many many times over unless something goes horribly and unexpectedly wrong.

[Bartimaeus]

It's difficult for me to gauge best/greatest TEs, because of how much the position has changed. Nevertheless, I have trouble placing Gates that high because while he was a really great receiving TE for his time, he was always known as being a below average at best blocker, and while pure receiving talents like him and Jimmy Graham may pretend that's not part of the position, it really actually is; guys who were good to great at it like Sharpe, Gronk, and Kelce have consistently proven that in addition to being just as great receivers, .

Edited April 29, 2021 by Bartimaeus

[Keyrock]

The only TE I would put ahead of Gates is Tony Gonzales.

[Keyrock]

Muh Boys have a ton of needs on defense. The consensus is that this class has 2 CBs and then a big dropoff. One of them should still be there at #10, so they will probably get Surtain or Horn, whoever is still on the board.

Edited April 29, 2021 by Keyrock

[Gromnir]

so, the draft is not the biggest nfl news of the day?

Aaron Rodgers doesn't want to return to Green Bay Packers, sources say

HA! Good Fun!

[rjshae]

More than 50% of first round draft picks prove to be busts:

https://theriotreport.com/more-than-50-of-first-round-picks-are-busts-and-other-terrifying-draft-statistics/

Ironically, the team that has received the most return on draft capitol (2010-2019) is Seattle:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/nfl-drafting-efficiency-2010-2019

At least under Carroll/Schneider, this is team is known for trading down for more picks. Perhaps the optimal approach then is to go for volume rather than ranking?

[Gromnir]

dallas being dallas

early last year there were concerns 'bout micah parson's maturity level and how he handled himself. "high-maintenance" were the criticism. character o' parsons were a concern, but considering how talented were parsons on the field, most teams were willing to deal with a potential diva. 

...

micah parsons were gonna go first round, but by all accounts he were deemed undraftable by more than a couple teams.

bears trading up to get fields is complete understandable, and likely dooms fields. nagy and the bears gm were unlikely to last the season unless something dramatic happened. draft an og or cb were not gonna change the bears fortunes, so am understanding why nagy and pace embraced stoopid and went all-in on a qb. unfortunate, thanks in part to injuries, the bears ol last year were terrible, and it didn't get better in the off season. won't matter who the bears put in at qb if you have one o' the league's worst run blocking squads, and a sub par pass blocking group. 

a bunch o' experts thought fields would go to the broncos. cris collinsworth o' nbc and bengals fame did not join the herd, but that is cause in his pre draft mock he had new england trade up to get fields at 7, and then had carolina take mac jones at 8. am thinking the broncos made a smart pick, but am s'posing if the unlikely happens and a bears drafted qb ends up being fantastic, then the broncos could look foolish, but only if surtain busts, which seems unlikely. horn, the other arguable top cb, got flagged for pi five times last year and had numerous holds as well. five times. surtain woulda' been our choice as the #1 cb available, so the broncos choosing him were a safe money bet at a position o' need.

jeremiah owusu-koramoah is the 8th best player according to that nfl.com list we shared earlier. pro football focus graded jok as second best defender in slot coverage in cfb last year... as a +220 lb? didn't go in round one? can hear the sicilian say, "inconceivable!" problem for jok is his position. the hash marks are different in college... wider. jok is not a safety. not a pass rush olb. a bit light for playing in the box. 

eric stokes for gb is curious. 8-10th best cb on many lists projecting draft prospects. at the same time, he has elite athleticism and his production at georgia were arguable the best o' any cb available in the draft. stokes gave up a TOTAL of 145 yds for the year. we didn't see much film on stokes, so am not able to make a valid assessment, but am baffled a guy with his kinda athleticism and production didn't get more attention from draft guys. clearly the gb staff were not listening to so-called experts. good on gb from our pov.

HA! Good Fun!

[Bartimaeus]

What really matters for Green Bay is that all of the Rodgers media noise ends up being complete bologna in the coming days. Ain't gonna be no team without Rodgers for a while if what was reported is actually true (and I'm banking on it not being true, given the things being said were so out of character for everything Rodgers has said and done so far, but...smoke, fire, etc.). For specifically Stokes, I don't know anything about the college game or how players translate over to the NFL, but I do know we definitely need another good CB after it was quite literally the downfall of our team in the NFCCG when Kevin King, who's been average to below average his entire career, got chewed up and let up several TDs all by himself...and while our GM is relatively new, he's already made a couple of really good DB picks (as well as picking to sign Amos, who has been great) over the past few years, so I can't be too mad about him picking up another CB.

Edited April 30, 2021 by Bartimaeus

[Gfted1]

Trouble at the Frozen Tundra? Rodgers wants out? Does he play or sit the season?

[Keyrock]

I would have preferred a CB, but both Surtain and Horn were gone and Micah Parsons is an incredibly talented LB. He's a potential head case, but that's nothing new for muh Boys.

[Gromnir]

3 hours ago, Gfted1 said:

Trouble at the Frozen Tundra? Rodgers wants out? Does he play or sit the season?

packers say they will not trade rodgers under any circumstances. 

Report: Aaron Rodgers has told some Packers teammates he won't return

based on the packers needing make public their refusal to trade rodgers and their commitment to having him play as a packer this year, am thinking this ain't just a media invention.

however, is weird. like @Bartimaeus am having difficulty squaring the kerfuffle as described with our admitted limited knowledge o' rodgers and the packers organization. rodgers, angered 'cause o' the drafting of jordan love, decides in 2021 that his relationship with the packers is irredeemable? can't help but feel like a piece is missing from the puzzle.

as far as we can tell, rodgers only option is to sit until he gets a trade or perhaps until the packers trade jordan love instead.  how likely is either option? 

HA! Good Fun!

 

 

[Keyrock]

Hasn't Rodgers been "reportedly" disgruntled for one reason or another almost every season? Has he ever been gruntled? Probably the year they won the superbowl, but other than that. Dude's had a chip on his shoulder since the draft when a whole bunch of teams idiotically passed him over. It's been working for him, so I'm not criticizing.

Edited April 30, 2021 by Keyrock

[Gromnir]

is a matter o' scale. rodgers being grumpy is not new. however, IF media reports is accurate, then rodgers has communicated to teammates he ain't coming back to the packers. trade or else.

perhaps rodgers is never gonna get better than defcon 4 during an offseason, but he went straight to cusp o' defcon 1 this time. 

HA! Good Fun!

[Gfted1]

Aaron Rodgers is now considering retirement unless the Packers fix things to 'his liking,' per report.

[Gromnir]

it is worth noting that so far, all the rodgers stories is based on statements made by people not named aaron rodgers. 

st. thomas got a bad rap in our opinion.

is a weirdly dramatic story to come outta nowhere and w/o rodgers speaking, am not sure how much is true. we can wait 'til we hear something (anything?) from rodgers.

undrafted

after the top 10-15 remaining, there is a logjam o' many players with near identical grades.  something like 44 or 45 with grades 'tween 6.30 and 6.20.  converse, there were a total o' ten players grading 'tween 6.4 and 6.5. beyond midway second round this year, we are far deeper into the realm o' art than science for predicting future nfl potential.

HA! Good Fun!

[Gfted1]

I agree that a lot of other people are talking their opinions, but hes not exactly putting the fire out either. Otoh it would also be hard to leave 25M on the table. Like you say wait and see.

Hes probably got at least 8 more years in him if he so chooses.

[Gromnir]

Just now, Gfted1 said:

I agree that a lot of other people are talking their opinions, but hes not exactly putting the fire out either. Otoh it would also be hard to leave 25M on the table. Like you say wait and see.

Hes probably got at least 8 more years in him if he so chooses.

am agreeing the underlined portion is tough to ignore, not that he owes Gromnir some kinda explanation.

am thinking he may owe @Bartimaeusand other gb fans an explanation at some point, but... 

HA! Good Fun!

 

[Keyrock]

Well, muh Boys did get a CB in the 2nd round. I'm pretty sure they, like myself, were hoping to get Surtan or Horn, but when they went #8 and #9 ahead of them, they had to improvise and take Parsons, who was the best available defender on the board at the time. They got Kelvin Joseph at #44. It's kind of a crap shoot of a pick. In terms of physical attributes and athleticism, Kelvin Joseph has all the tools to be as good as anyone at the position, but he's really raw and it's uncertain whether he can learn the position well enough to play at a high level. His ceiling is quite high, but his basement is relatively low. He could be an All-Pro or he could be out of the league in 3 years.

Edited May 1, 2021 by Keyrock

[Gromnir]

kelvin joseph were also kicked off the lsu squad for their fiesta bowl appearance a couple years ago-- unspecified infraction o' team rules. keep in mind, two other players initial suspended for that game but allowed to play were involved in a robbery which resulted in gunshots being fired. it takes a lot to get suspended at lsu. apparently joseph were gonna have to sit additional games the following year, so he transferred to kentucky.

is also worth noting joseph got benched during the florida game this last year 'cause he got torched repeatedly and kinda mental collapsed during the game, blowing coverages and acting like a whinny little...

dallas just can't help themselves.  kelvin has tons o' athleticism, but he relies on that athleticism to react to plays. needs to learn to study and develop anticipation. also needs to grow up and he needs do it fast.

HA! Good Fun!

ps am kinda taking it out on the cowboys, but we loathe all the nfl teams who talk 'bout the importance o' character while drafting guys such as parsons. is no accountability and players has learned there is no real cost for most kinds o' bad character as long as they produce. cowboys is most obvious, but we could be talking 'bout the browns who had a case o' insta amnesia and signed kareem hunt, or any o' a dozen other teams. 

Edited May 1, 2021 by Gromnir

[Keyrock]

Well, at #44 their choices at DB were someone who is likely to be middling with a ceiling of being solid, or a guy who could be great or could be a complete bust. What's the better choice? 

[Gromnir]

perhaps the only good thing about having multiple needs is you are able to choose best player available w/o it being a bad decision. dt or safety were also options if you really didn't wanna take samuel. as we noted, joseph were in that 6.30-6.20 range which contained a large number o' players who had similar projected nfl success. so, choose the guy less likely to make headlines via his mug shot or some bat crap story which takes place at 2:00am and nowhere near a football field. 

HA! Good Fun!

[Bartimaeus]

I have been hearing clowns vicariously living through their sports teams that have nothing better to do with their lives overreacting to draft picks for way too long to care at all about the draft anymore.

1. That guy was a major reach!
2. Oh, he was a GREAT value.
3. He's too undersized!
4. He's just like [HoF] player, you guys are gonna be scary!
5. He's just like [player that was a bust], LOL what a terrible pick!
6. I can't believe we're having such a great draft.
7. Oh my gosh, shoot me in the face, we're having such a horrible draft.
8. That guy had terrible attitude and discipline problems in college.
9. Our GM is such a clown.
10. In [GM] we trust!
11. This guy's a real team player and a grinder and everyone will love him.
12. Cancel the franchise.
13. We plugged the holes in our team!
14. We didn't do anything to address our needs.
15. We took the best player available.

Every different thing under the sun about every situation. Some guys mysteriously fall down the draft from where the wanna-be online GMs like Mel Kiper and Mike Mayock making their big boards - sometimes it's for good reason and it's "yeah, the GMs knew what they were doing", and sometimes the players that fell make the GMs look like clowns and a team actually did get a fantastic value for eventually picking him. None of this matters right now, and so I'll never make any definitive claims about guys - only three years from now will anyone have any idea how players will have translated to the NFL or developed past what were previously weaknesses (mental, physical, personality - whatever), or alternatively shown that for all their talent, they still couldn't put it together. It's hard to muster up much of a single ounce of caring about that until then.

In 2018, the Packers drafted:
1. CB Jaire Alexander in the first round that people said was a little over-drafted that turned out to be an All-Pro; people complained endlessly that we we had bigger needs and there were better players still available.
2. CB Joshua Jackson in the second round that people said should've gone in the mid-first round, so it's amazing that we got a great pair of CBs that will be the future of our secondary; has done absolutely nothing his career thus far.
3. An ILB that everyone said was a physical freak that needed time to develop that has turned out to be horrible at football in the third round.
4. An extremely physically talented WR that didn't, and doesn't know how to play WR at all and didn't last past his first year on the team in the fourth.
5. A guard that retired before he even played a snap with us in the fifth.
6. WR Marquez-Valdes Scantling that was an absolute nobody that has been a solid (albeit somewhat inconsistent) contributor the past couple of years and caught 7 TDs this past season in the sixth.

And so on and so forth. All of these men are individuals, and it's impossible to tell how individuals will develop physically and mentally. I've made it a general rule to only check in to see what happened on the draft after the day is already over - it's a lot more pleasant than it used to be actually trying to watch it and see endless overreactions that don't matter.

(e): Unrelated: if Rodgers actually does end up leaving the Packers, then I'll temporarily be a fan for whatever team(s) he's with for the rest of his career. He was probably the biggest component that got me into liking football, much like Favre was for many others. I just hope it's not for the Bears, Lions, Vikings, Cowboys, 49ers, Steelers, Seahawks, or Patriots. Only the 49ers look like an option that make sense right now, and they're probably the lowest on that totem pole of teams I'd least like to see him on.

Edited May 1, 2021 by Bartimaeus