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Elerond

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Everything posted by Elerond

  1. Sweden also will suffer unseen complication, as all other Nordic countries and Baltic countries have decided lift travel restrictions for each other citizens, but travel for people from Sweden is restricted until time that infection levels in Sweden are in same level as they are in other Nordic countries and in Baltic states. So at least for now favorite son of north has become a black sheep.
  2. Stray cats show example how to keep social distance
  3. Possibility for autumn vaccine is based on information hAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine that developed Oxford's researcher works on monkey and Indian medical company started to produce 40 million units of it and they estimate that million units will be ready in September in case that vaccine works. Of course as said vaccine has not yet properly tested on humans it may still fail, but even it fails to offer immunity it may offer mitigation for disease. https://www.businessinsider.com/india-serum-institute-millions-oxford-university-vaccine-before-approval-2020-4?r=US&IR=T Also vaccines developed by Finnish researchers goes human trials in midsummer and four Finnish medical companies have plans to produce millions of shots of it towards beginning of next year. But they are behind Oxford's researchers and they have even less to show that it would work and it is safe. Herd immunity doesn't necessary appear when disease spreads naturally, because percentage of population who have immunity never rose high enough to cause virus to cause its own extinction, like for example herd immunity against measles without vaccines doesn't seem to happen in population, even though it spreads fast and easily and people who had it develop lifetime immunity against it. This is said to be because ~95% population needs to be immune to measles in order there to be herd immunity against it and this doesn't happen because lowering spread speed and population turnover rate, which leads periodical measles epidemics in areas where populations aren't vaccinated. And there is possibility that corona is similar as influence and SARS, meaning antibodies against disease don't last long enough that populations could form herd immunity. Even if you can ensure that hospitals don't work in their 100%, it doesn't mean that larger concurrent patient number doesn't cause preventable deaths, because larger number simultaneous patients cause higher risk that doctors, nurses and other hospital staff (and even other patients) get infected, which increase risk of them dying compared to scenarios where number of simultaneous patients is lower. Also total number infections in population is not same when you change speed of infection spread, even when you take in account possible second, third and fourth ... etc. waves. Lower spread also makes it easier to prevent disease ever reached elderly care homes and other places with high concentration of people belonging risk groups. In Finland, death rate was 37% (11/30) in among residents of elderly care home where disease spread unnoticed to almost all the residents.
  4. Lockdowns have expiration date, at least they should have as they are meant to be temporal way to control the situation in areas where spread of disease is out of the control or ensuring control during time when countries and areas prepare methods of control that are better aimed (or at least areas under lockdown should do such preparations), but lockdowns are just extreme method of control, but not only way and not best way to control disease in long run. Also the Swedish strategy doesn't aim to stop or prevent disease in future, but to make future waves smaller and easier to control, so that they will cause less disruption in people's lives, but estimation models don't predict any clear long term benefits compared to strategies used by other countries I don't see it anyway good approach especially in current global environment where its benefits for economy are minimal.
  5. Is it spreading deaths if you just let people over 80 to die instead giving them care in order to keep ICU beds free? Even if you believe that there is no way to prevent exposure to the virus over time then trying to build herd immunity is useless and we should just hope that for some miracle disease doesn't kill all the people in the risk groups. There is already vaccines that works for animals and their human test have started or are starting soon. So there will be vaccines in autumn given that they may not give immunization for humans, just mitigate disease and increase number of those who have minor version of it. And of course there is change that those vaccines have side effects that prevent their usage in humans. And of course it will also take time to produce enough vaccine to vaccinate everybody or even those who belong in risk groups. On theoretical level people counted dying from the virus aren't always same, because that would mean that 100% population gets sick and there is no methods to mitigate or prevent its effects on those who are hospitalized by the disease. Corona doesn't seem to have spreading power to actually infect 100% of the population even if there isn't any preventative methods used and we have medicine and treatments that increase change that people hospitalized by the disease will survive it. So number of people dying from the disease depends multitude of factors which have more or less effect on how many people disease kills, but in any case number of deaths is not written in stone Edit: Herd immunity principal Common definition Herd immunity (also called herd effect, community immunity, population immunity, or social immunity) is a form of indirect protection from infectious disease that occurs when a large percentage of a population has become immune to an infection, whether through previous infections or vaccination, thereby providing a measure of protection for individuals who are not immune But of course like with any term people have habit to use it in different context and give it different meanings https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/52/7/911/299077 The term “herd immunity” is widely used but carries a variety of meanings [1–7]. Some authors use it to describe the proportion immune among individuals in a population. Others use it with reference to a particular threshold proportion of immune individuals that should lead to a decline in incidence of infection. Still others use it to refer to a pattern of immunity that should protect a population from invasion of a new infection. A common implication of the term is that the risk of infection among susceptible individuals in a population is reduced by the presence and proximity of immune individuals (this is sometimes referred to as “indirect protection” or a “herd effect”). We provide brief historical, epidemiologic, theoretical, and pragmatic public health perspectives on this concept. [sources 1-7] 1. http://physwww.mcmaster.ca/~higgsp/756/Fox_1971.pdf 2. https://www.nature.com/articles/318323a0 (paywall) 3. https://academic.oup.com/epirev/article-abstract/15/2/265/440430?redirectedFrom=fulltext 4. https://academic.oup.com/cid/article-abstract/9/5/866/479603 5. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/A:1007626510002 These were clearly from same school of though as 213374U 6. https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/197/5/643/836719 7. https://www.cabdirect.org/cabdirect/abstract/20103167361
  6. Herd immunity is meant to protect those who aren't immune, by having enough people to be immune for the disease that will form blockade around those people who for some reason or another can't build immunity for the disease but if all the people who need protection of herd immunity are dead, then there really isn't herd immunity just people who didn't die when disease went through the population. This with presumption that immunity last long enough to prevent second new waves of the infection. Also I am not sure if it should be actually called flattening the curve if you achieve preventing overhelmed healthcare system by not giving intensive care for people over certain age.
  7. Is there any benefits archiving that greater immunity sooner if big sunk of those who that immunity is meant to protect are already dead because disease spread so rife?
  8. Our epidemiologists can be divided to two main schools of thought One is those who think Swedish strategy is better, even though they death toll is too high, as they don't think that vaccine comes early enough to prevent second wave of infections, so they think its impact would be lesser if more people would be sick now, instead of autumn or next winter when flu comes back to season. Of course this also includes thinking that all or at least most of the restrictions are lifted before autumn all over the world, as otherwise flu season will be much less impactful And another is those who think that we should add more restrictions now in order to eliminate current epidemic fully in order to be able to move test, track and guarantee strategy, until vaccine comes out. And of course our government's strategy is from middle of these two, so lifting restrictions and moving to test, track and guarantee strategy and see what happens then. Currently it seem that any of these strategies will not bring result that people hope. As anti-body tests in our worst infected area showed that less than 1% (when supporters of first strategy believed that it would at least to be 10%) of population has had covid-19 as people have been free to be Finnish and avoid all human contacts to max (like for example about 60% of Finnish workforce has moved to do their jobs remote). So there is no hope to get population to have covid before feared second wave without crashing healthcare system. It looks that eliminating covid-19 cases temporally will happen during summer, but with lifting travel restrictions it does not look like that we can keep up with testing, with current capacity of 10k test per day, so test, track and guarantee seems to be doomed to miss people which will most likely mean that feared second wave will happen. Development of vaccines for covid seem to progress faster than predicted and we will most likely see at autumn vaccines that at least lessen the effect of covid-19 if not prevent it. Although even best case it is probably late next year until there is enough vaccines produced to start mass vaccinations all over the world.
  9. One probably should wonder how many people in US prisons are then innocent, considering that 94% of state-level felony convictions and 97% of federal convictions are by plea bargain
  10. https://apnews.com/ae1ad252bb13490db2ceffc5d17b6d92? WASHINGTON (AP) — In an abrupt about-face, the Justice Department on Thursday said it is dropping the criminal case against President Donald Trump’s first national security adviser, Michael Flynn, abandoning a prosecution that became a rallying cry for the president and his supporters in attacking the FBI’s Trump-Russia investigation. The action was a stunning reversal for one of the signature cases brought by special counsel Robert Mueller. It comes even though prosecutors for the past three years have maintained that Flynn lied to the FBI in a January 2017 interview about his conversations with the Russian ambassador. Too bad that Flynn only pleaded guilty, clearly that is not enough to be sure if person is actually guilty
  11. Only if you change general meaning of a journalist - a person who writes news stories or articles for a newspaper or magazine or broadcasts them on radio or television https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/journalist
  12. I find it quite ironic that you say that about opinion piece which is not written by journalist of any sort but CEO of 20-first, a global gender-balance consultancy. But with your logic everything that you wrote can because of that mistake assumed to false and nothing more than trying to spin a narrative
  13. European Council or European Commission. As European Council is just EU member states' leaders (plus European Council and Commission presidents who don't have right to vote if Council decides to held vote for any issues discussed) getting together four times in year to discuss what direction EU should go and what priorities EU should have.
  14. Refugees, economic migrants usually don't have similar integration issues because of language at least here
  15. All three may actually be same news, considering that second is from DailyMail and third picture is from Daily Express
  16. Native classes have helped quite lot in integration efforts in Finland in comparison offering classes only in Finnish, Swedish and English, as among some refugees there are lots of people especially women who don't know written version of their own language well let alone English (or Finnish or Swedish). Refugee children aren't problem as they learn Finnish quickly usually in couple months, but adults have high risk to become social outsiders because they aren't able to communicate with native Finns.
  17. Blame the government And it is not cursing it is just https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aggressive_mood
  18. That is national secret which one should not speak about
  19. It is mostly waiting, then learning to obey orders, then exercise, then practicing team work, then taking care of your equipment, then how to survive in wilderness, then digging trenches, then shooting and combat practices, then communication practices during time when infrastructure is down, then learning to plant mine field and explode things. No cursing in Russia practices - Finnish phrase vittu saatana kuole ryssä perkele jumalauta is seen to be enough .
  20. I did military service
  21. Feasibility and reasonability of conscription depends lots of country's general defensive situation. For example for Finland other options really aren't feasible if we want to maintain ability to defend most of our country. Also Israel and South Korea have similar geopolitical location where other options aren't really options at least today. It is easier to not have conscription when your neighboring country doesn't have several battalions of attack ready troops 50 km of your border
  22. It would be nice if he advocates Traumakine next, hydroxychloroquine boom already increased my stock value quite lot (about +39%) (as Finland's largest pharmaceutical company Orion is one of the largest manufactures of hydroxychloroquine in world), and Traumakine is new drug from another big Finnish pharma company Faron that is tested to help in respiratory diseases. Its value has already increased during corona crisis for 20%, but I believe that it could even double its market value if Trump gives its drug free advertisement
  23. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9 Conclusions In the midst of the global COVID-19 public-health emergency, it is reasonable to wonder why the origins of the pandemic matter. Detailed understanding of how an animal virus jumped species boundaries to infect humans so productively will help in the prevention of future zoonotic events. For example, if SARS-CoV-2 pre-adapted in another animal species, then there is the risk of future re-emergence events. In contrast, if the adaptive process occurred in humans, then even if repeated zoonotic transfers occur, they are unlikely to take off without the same series of mutations. In addition, identifying the closest viral relatives of SARS-CoV-2 circulating in animals will greatly assist studies of viral function. Indeed, the availability of the RaTG13 bat sequence helped reveal key RBD mutations and the polybasic cleavage site. The genomic features described here may explain in part the infectiousness and transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 in humans. Although the evidence shows that SARS-CoV-2 is not a purposefully manipulated virus, it is currently impossible to prove or disprove the other theories of its origin described here. However, since we observed all notable SARS-CoV-2 features, including the optimized RBD and polybasic cleavage site, in related coronaviruses in nature, we do not believe that any type of laboratory-based scenario is plausible. More scientific data could swing the balance of evidence to favor one hypothesis over another. Obtaining related viral sequences from animal sources would be the most definitive way of revealing viral origins. For example, a future observation of an intermediate or fully formed polybasic cleavage site in a SARS-CoV-2-like virus from animals would lend even further support to the natural-selection hypotheses. It would also be helpful to obtain more genetic and functional data about SARS-CoV-2, including animal studies. The identification of a potential intermediate host of SARS-CoV-2, as well as sequencing of the virus from very early cases, would similarly be highly informative. Irrespective of the exact mechanisms by which SARS-CoV-2 originated via natural selection, the ongoing surveillance of pneumonia in humans and other animals is clearly of utmost importance.
  24. It seems that miracle cure doesn't work https://apnews.com/a5077c7227b8eb8b0dc23423c0bbe2b2 A malaria drug widely touted by President Donald Trump for treating the new coronavirus showed no benefit in a large analysis of its use in U.S. veterans hospitals. There were more deaths among those given hydroxychloroquine versus standard care, researchers reported. The nationwide study was not a rigorous experiment. But with 368 patients, it’s the largest look so far of hydroxychloroquine with or without the antibiotic azithromycin for COVID-19, which has killed more than 171,000 people as of Tuesday. .... About 28% who were given hydroxychloroquine plus usual care died, versus 11% of those getting routine care alone. About 22% of those getting the drug plus azithromycin died too, but the difference between that group and usual care was not considered large enough to rule out other factors that could have affected survival. Hydroxychloroquine made no difference in the need for a breathing machine, either.
  25. To be fair towards communists, it is not like any other state can say that there is enough bread to go around
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