Elerond
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Posts posted by Elerond
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This will cause massive impact on Russian trade. Maersk dominates Baltic Sea shipping and containers
https://www.reuters.com/business/worlds-biggest-container-lines-suspend-shipping-russia-2022-03-01/
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51 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:
First official victims of Oil spiking to 118 USD
"Citigroup analysts predicted last month that Brent oil prices would fall 18% to 20% by the second half of the year, and established a short position on December Brent futures, recommending that investors sell Brent at $82.39 a barrel. They wrote that they had “high confidence” in the trade. The stop loss on the trade was $92, a level that it crossed on Wednesday as Brent futures soared to new highs. The trade lost 11.5%."
Failure to read world situation and making gamble investments has habit to bite people asses
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2 hours ago, pmp10 said:
Sure, but the money will eventually have to come from the average taxpayer.
Unless we are heading for an insurgency/cold war scenario you simply cannot justify that sacrifice long term.It depends how you look at it, taxpayers money come from same place where all other money comes, from nothing.
European central bank will just create more euros that it will loan to member states.
Which can impact tax payers by causing inflation, which then will be answered by increasing interest rates, which will tie more money in banks, but as long as Europe is able to trade its goods and services its central banks can do their magic tricks with money that appears from nothing and keep economy running. Which of course does not mean that people don't feel some effects as it takes times to economy to balance itself.
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36 minutes ago, pmp10 said:
If we are talking oil then you know OPEC quotas limit the supply.
And of course it was the cheapest supply in much of Europe, that is why it was bought and that is why sanctioning it would lead to economic pain.OPEC quotas exist to keep oil price high, but if it goes sky high they will increase it so that they don't lose markets to other oil producers or alternatives
It is logistics that is main reason why Europe is so relied on Russian gas and oil.
Economic pain can be compensated with new recovery fund or similar support program. But money doesn't increase capacity of Europe harbors and number of oil/gas tankers in world
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7 hours ago, pmp10 said:
Sure but wast majority is contracted long-term and increasing production will take years.
There are good reasons why fossil fuel imports were excluded from sanctions, and that is even before political backsliding begins.Considering that most oil producers don't produce oil even with half of their capacity, it doesn't take that long to increase oil production. Europe buys oil from Russia because they sold it cheap compared to others
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7 hours ago, Pidesco said:
That is very incomplete. It is missing Norway, Iran, Kazakhstan, Qatar, Brazil, almost the entirety of Africa.
Also Greece and UK are missing
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3 minutes ago, BruceVC said:
Really, when was the last war between Europeans ?
There was ongoing civil war in Ukraine
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conflicts_in_Europe
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57 minutes ago, BruceVC said:
Russia can reverse its impending economic collapse, it wont take decades. I would say a friendly Russia can get its economy back in 4-6 years
Because some of the sanctions that have hurt it the hardest can literally be reversed overnight like the US sanctions on the $ on the Russian central bank. If the US just ends that then Russia can access most of its $650 Billion sovereign fund which is mostly in $
Sanctions can be reserved on paper easily but not their impact. Amount of foreign capital that has left and will leave from the Russia is massive. Lost of trust towards banks in Russia will hinder recovery efforts. I don't see that issues with air traffic will recover soon after sanctions have lifted.
Returning of now closed factories, warehouses etc. will take long time. So Russia needs quite good economic recovery to return to level before war let alone lost growth during time the sanctions are on.
Also these sanctions will hurt EU, UK and USA too and it isn't like in past two years global pandemic has caused havoc in economy which will have long lasting effects in global trade.
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6 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:
Yeah, this is what worries me a bit. If there is no real path to normalization, then Putin's game is hell or high water.
Path to normalization has already been destroyed. There is reason why Cutting countries out from SWIFT is seen as economical nuclear bomb. After it is done there is now way to return to time when it wasn't done. Reconstruction can be done, but effects will last decades
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5 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:
Well, does it become sustainable long term? Base energy costs are already extremly high, what would be the cost pressure on the society?
Sure, producers might get it running at that price, but economy might not be able to withstand it, especially not the lower end of the income range within the societies.
Yes, it becomes sustainable. Because end result is that there is more money in our economy.
Paying billions to other countries for energy isn't sustainable in long run but it is cheaper now, so people don't care
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It depends, like for example with 120 dollar per barrel, our domestic biofuel will be in competitive price and will eventually boost our economy.
Oil and Natural gas are bad for European domestic energy production, but usually it is seen too expensive to get rid of them, but rising prices will force change, which is change which oil producers would like to avoid.
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4 hours ago, pmp10 said:
Okay, but you'd still at least want radar for command and control and I assume that is largely gone now.
Then again, maybe NATO would provide that as part of intelligence.Ukraine has at least medium range 80K6M mobile radars and probably ways to organize mobile command and control
So losing fixed radars and centers should not make their air force inoperable.
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1 hour ago, pmp10 said:
Some 70 combat aircrafts are to be transferred to Ukraine.
That's crazy, do they even have pilots for them let alone intact airfields?You don't necessary need airfields, fighter jets are capable to take off from 200m-300m long straight road and they don't need much more to land.
Road fueling and rearming is basic training in Finnish airforce, because expectation is that enemy is capable to destroy our airfields. I don't know what kind training they have done in Ukraine's airforce, but I would except that have trained towards situation where they lose access to their airfields
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41 minutes ago, kanisatha said:
Well if they are serious, (1) they should NOT be public about it and submit their request in secret, and (2) their bid should be approved in a hyper-expedited manner.
Joining to Nato needs to change to Finland's constitution so it can't be done in secret
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Russia has succeeded to persuade Finns that we need to join to Nato, as support for Nato membership has increased from ~25% to 53% and opposition has decreased to 28%. Also all parties in parliament have now given statements in support of joining to Nato. So now it would be possible that Finland joins to Nato soonish.
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EU's energy ministers are currently having meeting about cutting down energy purchases from Russia.
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2 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:
Täällähän on ihan saatanasti suomalaisia juuri nyt.
Translation: an awful lot of Finns taking part in the conversation right now.
Actually, no wonder, given where that delightful country is situated...
There has been always lot of Finns (I think 6-7 on entire forum)
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48 minutes ago, Malcador said:
Seems Ukraine's winning handily enough without the need for a no fly zone or more direct NATO support, strange they keep asking for it.
Fighting when your side does not have air support and other side has, is hellish.
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20 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:
They're always going to have logistical issues because... that's what happens to everyone.
Especially when you don't have your logistics routes set up before hand and try to build them from the fly
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12 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:
I really don't get the number of people acting as if Kiev not falling by day 2 was unexpected.
For Russian it was unexpected as they had not established supply lines for their troops, which has hindered their progress according to our military intelligence
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2 hours ago, ComradeYellow said:
But not Syrians, right? Racist pigs.
Also,
Interesting
That is typical war propaganda. It is meant to lower defenders will to fight.
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1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:
Now imagine reading something like that in 1939...
That was what countries did in 1939, they tried to avoid become parties in the war, which is why Finland, Poland, Baltic states did get only promises of help when they were invaded
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Oil and gas are sacred, which is why there was constantly flow of oil and gas even worst moments of cold war.
Main reason is that once the flow is cut down, there is very high change that it will never again go up
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2 hours ago, Sarex said:
Every country has contingency plans, against allies and foes, the closer the thread the closer the preparations come to fulfill those plans.
There are contingency plans and actively preparing to invasion by increasing forces and moving them to attack positions
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Ukraine Conflict - Der Weg zurück
in Way Off-Topic
Posted · Edited by Elerond
But root cause is not oil price pike, but than big investment banks are allowed to do massive gambles with funds they don't own