Woman wins millions in lottery 4 times!

[Gorgon]

one in a million.

[alanschu]

one in a million.

 

Since we've already established that this event can possibly happen, then it is possible for Chuck to win a 3rd lottery.

 

 

Chuck has now won 3 lotteries. This is an event that we have deemed possible to happen. What is the probability that Chuck wins a lottery after having already won 3?

[Gorgon]

I think most of us are getting there

[Gorgon]

Now of course if we view the course of Chuck's life as a singular event and have no result unless Chuck wins exactly four lotteries, then the odds become astronomical.

[alanschu]

I think most of us are getting there

 

I'm trying to spell it out as literally as possible though because it seems to be necessary.

 

 

Now of course if we view the course of Chuck's life as a singular event and have no result unless Chuck wins exactly four lotteries, then the odds become astronomical.

 

The odds are indeed astronomical, but not impossible. Especially when you break it down to 4 independent events which can possibly happen.

Edited July 16, 2010 by alanschu

[Wrath of Dagon]

No, I'm saying the potential pool of people who have already won the lottery once is a lot smaller than the potential pool of people who can win the lottery for the first time.

 

Let's try this:

 

Chuck just won a lottery. This lottery has a chance of winning it of 1 in a million. What is the probability that Chuck wins this lottery again?

If he buys one ticket one time, 1 in a million.

 

Don't distract yourself with "one ticket" stuff. I have fixed the odds to control for it and simplify situation. The odds of winning this lottery is one in a million and is static.

 

I will assume that you feel that the odds of chuck winning another lottery is possible.

 

 

Chuck wins this lottery (an event that can possibly happen). As a result, he has now won two lotteries. What is the probability that Chuck wins this lottery again?

Your assumption is wrong. Odds of one in 1 million are impossible, Chuck will never win the second lottery. I can believe may be odds of 1 in 1000, but not 1 in 1 million.

[Deadly_Nightshade]

Math aside, isn

[Wrath of Dagon]

Math aside, isn

[Deadly_Nightshade]

Odds of one in 1 million are impossible, Chuck will never win the second lottery.

 

Massive, massive maths fail there Dagon.

 

I can believe may be odds of 1 in 1000, but not 1 in 1 million.

 

That's great, you're still wrong though.

[alanschu]

Your assumption is wrong. Odds of one in 1 million are impossible, Chuck will never win the second lottery. I can believe may be odds of 1 in 1000, but not 1 in 1 million.

 

Odds of 1 in 1 million are certainly not impossible.

 

If you'd like, I could do the exact same example with 1/1000 odds. It'll just take me more message board posts to accomplish it.

[Deadly_Nightshade]

Math aside, isn

[Wrath of Dagon]

Your assumption is wrong. Odds of one in 1 million are impossible, Chuck will never win the second lottery. I can believe may be odds of 1 in 1000, but not 1 in 1 million.

 

Odds of 1 in 1 million are certainly not impossible.

 

If you'd like, I could do the exact same example with 1/1000 odds. It'll just take me more message board posts to accomplish it.

Go ahead.

 

Math aside, isn

Edited July 16, 2010 by Wrath of Dagon

[alanschu]

Chuck has a 1/1000 chance of winning a lottery. Is this event possible?

[Deadly_Nightshade]

Chuck has a 1/1000 chance of winning a lottery. Is this event possible?

 

Yes.

[Wrath of Dagon]

I already said it is.

[Calax]

 

Don't distract yourself with "one ticket" stuff. I have fixed the odds to control for it and simplify situation. The odds of winning this lottery is one in a million and is static.

 

I will assume that you feel that the odds of chuck winning another lottery is possible.

 

 

Chuck wins this lottery (an event that can possibly happen). As a result, he has now won two lotteries. What is the probability that Chuck wins this lottery again?

Your assumption is wrong. Odds of one in 1 million are impossible, Chuck will never win the second lottery. I can believe may be odds of 1 in 1000, but not 1 in 1 million.

... *looks at his last post and the odds there* dude, there are 300 thousand reasons each day you're wrong.

[Deadly_Nightshade]

Wouldn't work, scientific method only works observing natural phenomenon, it wouldn't work with the supernatural.

 

However, if you claim your god manifests himself in the real, natural world, it would work - you cannot have your cake and eat it too.

 

 

Besides, the theory of probability is far more powerful proof than any merely empirical observation.

 

Uhhh... No, it's not. In fact, as I said, even if you proved that this was supernatural, something you have failed repeatably to do by the way, you would then have to provided further proof that this was your god and not something else (like Bob's Monkey).

[alanschu]

I already said it is.

 

We agree it's possible to win with 1 in a thousand odds.

 

Chuck has won 1 lottery. His odds of winning another lottery is the fixed chance of 1/1000. What are the odds he wins a second lottery? Is it possible for him to win a second lottery at these odds?

Edited July 16, 2010 by alanschu

[Calax]

Your assumption is wrong. Odds of one in 1 million are impossible, Chuck will never win the second lottery. I can believe may be odds of 1 in 1000, but not 1 in 1 million.

 

Odds of 1 in 1 million are certainly not impossible.

 

If you'd like, I could do the exact same example with 1/1000 odds. It'll just take me more message board posts to accomplish it.

Go ahead.

 

Math aside, isn

[Deadly_Nightshade]

What are the odds he wins a second lottery.

 

I know, I know!

It's 1/1000

.

[Wrath of Dagon]

@ alanschu The problem is you're assuming he already won the first lottery. All I conceeded was that it was possible for him to win, not that he's already won. You can't just take a 1/1000 chance and then split it into 3 1/10 chances and then claim it's all the same because you're already assuming he won the first 2 because the chances are so reasonable.

Edited July 16, 2010 by Wrath of Dagon

[Humodour]

Your assumption is wrong. Odds of one in 1 million are impossible, Chuck will never win the second lottery. I can believe may be odds of 1 in 1000, but not 1 in 1 million.

 

I think it's safe to say that while at some point in this thread, Wrath genuinely didn't understand how statistics work, he's now clearly just trolling.

 

I'm not sure how successful his trolling is however, as I'm rather entertained!

[Gorgon]

Look, it's pretty simple. None of the lotteries stack with each other or interact in their probabilities in any way whatsoever, they are each separate calculations, separate results.

 

 

This is where that 'dice have no memory' thing comes in handy.

[Wrath of Dagon]

@krezack No, what's safe to say that no one in this thread except me seems to understand how probabilty works. Which really isn't surprising, I remember in my signals and systems class almost no one could understand Fourier transforms, even though everyone was at least in the top 5% of students worldwide.

Edited July 16, 2010 by Wrath of Dagon

[Calax]

@ alanschu The problem is you're assuming he already won the first lottery. All I conceeded was that it was possible for him to win, not that he's already won. You can't just take a 1/1000 chance and then split it into 3 1/10 chances and then claim it's all the same because you're already assuming he won the first 2 because the chances are so reasonable.

Uh, dagon...

 

he has a 1/1000 chance of winning the first

if he wins or looses, he has a 1/1000 chance of winning the next

if he wins or looses, he has a 1/1000 chance of winning the next continue to infiniti

 

I have NO idea how you passed algebra right now