Woman wins millions in lottery 4 times!

[Deadly_Nightshade]

The probability of getting that order again would be around 2^50, so yeah, it would never happen no matter how many times you try.

 

No, again you are incorrect. It might happen, the odds would just be very, very, very low.

[Wrath of Dagon]

Try it then, it will never happen, I'm quite confident.

[Calax]

The probability of getting that order again would be around 2^50, so yeah, it would never happen no matter how many times you try.

 

No, again you are incorrect. It might happen, the odds would just be very, very, very low.

Exactly.

 

Of course it doesn't really matter because YOU ALREADY GOT THE COMBINATION! IT HAPPENED!

 

You can always increase the number of cards until you hit the point where you've got odds similar to hers and still get an outcome. Doesn't necessairly have to be a pre-disposed outcome, just an outcome in this case, but it proves, just because something is 1 in umpteen skillion chance doesn't mean it doesn't happen, it just isn't likely. Of course given the odds involved here, it's more likely a cheat but if not grats to her.

[Deadly_Nightshade]

Try it then, it will never happen, I'm quite confident.

 

If I wanted to do it I would write a program that deals cards like Calax described many times every minute and see how long it takes for the same combination to come up - but that's really irrelevant. The fact is that just because, as I have said, the chances are low it doesn't mean that something can not happen. It will likely not happen, you could say with almost full certainty it would not happen, but that does not mean that it could not happen.

[Wrath of Dagon]

I can tell you right now that nothing that has the probability of 1 out of 18 septillion happened. The reporter likely mistakenly factored the probabilities of four wins, and thus got a ridiculously low number. What that calculation tells you is the probability to win four times with four particular tickets. However this woman has probably been buying tickets every weeks for several years, and won four times over that time. The probability of that is considerably higher, though still not at all likely. But when you consider how many events happen every day in the world, you have to expect that something very, very unlikely happens every now and then. Somewhere there probably is someone who has been hit by lightning four times cursing this woman.

 

Could be a scam as well, though I have hard time imagining how that could be done, given that the authorities conducted full investigation.

Yes, I already said it's not septillion for those reasons. It's still in the trillions though. It's pretty hard to believe we have randomly witnessed an event that only occurs once in thousands of universe lifetimes. If people would rather believe that than a supernatural explanation, it's up to them of course. I'll say that an undetected scam is the far likelier of the alternatives, but I don't believe that explanation in spite of the statistical evidence for it.

 

Edit:

Try it then, it will never happen, I'm quite confident.

 

If I wanted to do it I would write a program that deals cards like Calax described many times every minute and see how long it takes for the same combination to come up - but that's really irrelevant. The fact is that just because, as I have said, the chances are low it doesn't mean that something can not happen. It will likely not happen, you could say with almost full certainty it would not happen, but that does not mean that it could not happen.

Yes, but your program may have to run for over a thousand years, that's a huge number we're talking about.

Edited July 14, 2010 by Wrath of Dagon

[Calax]

I can tell you right now that nothing that has the probability of 1 out of 18 septillion happened. The reporter likely mistakenly factored the probabilities of four wins, and thus got a ridiculously low number. What that calculation tells you is the probability to win four times with four particular tickets. However this woman has probably been buying tickets every weeks for several years, and won four times over that time. The probability of that is considerably higher, though still not at all likely. But when you consider how many events happen every day in the world, you have to expect that something very, very unlikely happens every now and then. Somewhere there probably is someone who has been hit by lightning four times cursing this woman.

 

Could be a scam as well, though I have hard time imagining how that could be done, given that the authorities conducted full investigation.

Yes, I already said it's not septillion for those reasons. It's still in the trillions though. It's pretty hard to believe we have randomly witnessed an event that only occurs once in thousands of universe lifetimes. If people would rather believe that than a supernatural explanation, it's up to them of course. I'll say that an undetected scam is the far likelier of the alternatives, but I don't believe that explanation in spite of the statistical evidence for it.

The reason everyone is bringing this up is because you said "It has to be an act of god or a scam!" and said that us non-believers couldn't accept that chances this high happened. Except that we do, simply because there is so much stuff in the universe. Hell, humanity is one hell of a "chance" that it existed (although that point is moot because we're here) but How many trillions of planets? Billions of galaxies are there?

Edit:

Try it then, it will never happen, I'm quite confident.

 

If I wanted to do it I would write a program that deals cards like Calax described many times every minute and see how long it takes for the same combination to come up - but that's really irrelevant. The fact is that just because, as I have said, the chances are low it doesn't mean that something can not happen. It will likely not happen, you could say with almost full certainty it would not happen, but that does not mean that it could not happen.

Yes, but you program may have to run for over a thousand years, that's a huge number we're talking about.

Not really, in calcualtions per second the computer is REALLY fast.

[Wrath of Dagon]

Not really, in calcualtions per second the computer is REALLY fast.

I just calculated it, assuming the computer can do it 1 billion times per second, it would take 9.6e+47 years (47 0's), so I was a bit low with my thousand year estimate.

Edited July 14, 2010 by Wrath of Dagon

[Deadly_Nightshade]

If people would rather believe that than a supernatural explanation, it's up to them of course.

 

Sure, but that's just adding an unnecessary factor - one that is, frankly, less likely than a naturalistic explanation.

[Thorton_AP]

The probability of getting that order again would be around 2^50, so yeah, it would never happen no matter how many times you try.

 

Statistics guarantees that it will happen again if you try an sufficiently large number of times.

[Deadly_Nightshade]

The reason everyone is bringing this up is because you said "It has to be an act of god or a scam!" and said that us non-believers couldn't accept that chances this high happened.

 

Well, the way he set it up was, in fact, a logical fallacy (a false dichotomy). And even then, hypothetically assuming there was a supernatural force, he would have to prove it was a god or gods and not something else before he could claim this as evidence of a deity/deities.

 

 

 

I just calculated it, assuming the computer can do it 1 billion times per second, it would take 9.6^47 years, so I was a bit low with my thousand year estimate.

 

 

It still doesn't matter, the point still stands - just because the odds are low doesn't mean something cannot happen.

[alanschu]

Take 100 decks of cards.

 

Draw one card from each deck.

 

The statisical likelihood of you drawing those 100 cards is about 2.5*10^-172. Yet you just did it. You had such an extreme unlikely chance of drawing those 100 specific cards, but you did draw them.

 

In Dagon's world, you shouldn't be able to draw those 100 specific cards because it just cannot happen in the natural world because the probability of doing so is too small. Which is an incorrect statement.

 

 

 

As for the case, my money would be on confounding variables that are hidden (i.e. not necessarily a scam) that have inadvertently increased the likelihood of her success. In other words, it was probably effectively a weighted system as opposed to a fairly random one.

Edited July 14, 2010 by alanschu

[Wrath of Dagon]

Your analogy is wrong. This isn't about drawing any sequence of cards, it's about drawing a pre-determined sequence of cards.

[Deadly_Nightshade]

Your analogy is wrong. This isn't about drawing any sequence of cards, it's about drawing a pre-determined sequence of cards.

 

No, it's relevant.

[alanschu]

My analogy most certainly is not incorrect. You just fail to properly understand it.

 

I'm not talking about drawing any sequence of cards. The probably ability of drawing 100 cards of any sequence is 100%. Anyone will always do that. But that's not what I'm stating.

 

 

Imagine this: I randomly draw from 100 decks of cards. They turn out to all be the ace of spades. You can say that the odds of doing that are (1/52)^100. (note, the order of the sequence obviously matters for this to be true).

 

However, this still applies for any unique sequence of unique cards that you get. Whatever they happen to be, when you draw those 100 cards, the chances of you getting the sequence that you do, is exactly the same as the chances that you get 100 ace of spades.

 

Unless you're implying that getting a specific sequence other than 100 ace of spades is somehow higher....

Edited July 14, 2010 by alanschu

[Wrath of Dagon]

OK, everything you say is true, but what does it prove exactly?

[Deadly_Nightshade]

OK, everything you say is true, but what does it prove exactly?

 

That very unlikely things can occur naturally - something that you seem to disagree with based on previous posts in this thread.

[Wrath of Dagon]

No one's ever drew 100 Aces though.

[Deadly_Nightshade]

No one's ever drew 100 Aces though.

 

Even if that were true, I have no idea if someone has drawn one-hundred aces or not, what is your point? As many people have said, just because the odds are highly skewed doesn't mean that it's imposable. You're not making any sense.

[alanschu]

OK, everything you say is true, but what does it prove exactly?

 

That simply because something has an exceptionally low chance of happening, does not mean that it cannot happen. And your assertion of stating that something with that has ridiculously small odds of happening can't happen in the natural world is an incorrect assertion.

 

 

I'm refuting (as Deadly Nightshade pointed out) the false dichotomy that you presented.

[Wrath of Dagon]

My point is you can not predict what sequence has been drawn, because the odds of any particular sequence are extremely low.

 

Edit: In other words, the probability of some sequence being drawn is one, so of course some sequence being drawn will occur. However, the probability of any particular sequence being drawn is infinitessimally small, so drawing 100 Aces or any other sequence you'd care to predict ahead of time will never (or in a trillion trillion years) occur.

Edited July 14, 2010 by Wrath of Dagon

[Deadly_Nightshade]

My point is you can not predict what sequence has been drawn, because the odds of any particular sequence are extremely low.

 

Again, how does that support your earlier claims? Or do you admit that those were incorrect?

[Wrath of Dagon]

What earlier claims? I wasn't trying to support my earlier claims, I already explained those. I was answering other posts, which happen to be irrelevant to the subject at hand.

[alanschu]

My point is you can not predict what sequence has been drawn, because the odds of any particular sequence are extremely low.

 

That's not what you stated when you stated that events with exceptionally low probability do not occur in the natural world: "Something that only has 1 in trillions chance of happening shouldn't happen in the natural world."

 

Regardless, I know where this road goes. If you wish to believe that this was due to some sort of supernatural phenomenon, then you are free to believe whatever helps you make sense of the world.

 

I'm off to return to work.

[Deadly_Nightshade]

What earlier claims?

 

Claims like these two:

 

The probability of getting that order again would be around 2^50, so yeah, it would never happen no matter how many times you try.

 

Something that only has 1 in trillions chance of happening shouldn't happen in the natural world.

 

You have yet to support your claims or admit that they were incorrect (even the logical fallacy you used - something that is clearly false). You need to do that before building another case or shifting your argument.

 

 

I'm off to return to work.

 

Thanks for stopping by, hope the rest of your day goes well.

[Humodour]

there has to be a supernatural explanation. Take that atheists!

 

*facepalm*

 

And this is why we have religion.