rjshae
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Posts posted by rjshae
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Trump says US may hit Iran’s Kharg Island again ‘just for fun’
Umm... 'K. Cue the sinister laughter, I suppose. Mwahahahaha. 👹
This seems increasingly like a bully vs. bully war. Which one is the more evil, I wonder?
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It's snowing here; there's about an inch accumulated thus far and it's still coming down. This is very late in the season for snow in this area. ❄️
Meanwhile, the weather folk are predicting a strong El Niño for 2026, which may mean a year or two of abnormally high temperatures. 🥵
Guess I should enjoy the cold while I can...
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3 hours ago, Gorth said: I suppose Trump accomplished an unusual feat in Iran. He managed to get Ayatollah Khamenei replaced with Ayatollah Khamenei as supreme leader 🤔
Note that the death of the Aytollah is credited to Israel, although it likely wouldn't have happened without the US attack. We also have Israel to thank for attacking Iran's oil infrastructure; I'm not sure that was a good move from the US perspective.
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4 hours ago, BruceVC said: I can't imagine an outcome where the US and Israel stop attacking Iran and then Iran continues there attacks or continues to block Hormuz
Anything is possible but it seems very unlikely?
Well, presumably Iran would want to return to the negotiating table with some form of leverage. The US is spending around $900 million per day, with $6 billion spent thus far. If Iran pursues an asymmetrical war strategy, it could cost the US dearly to gain any sort of victory. Plus,
redacteddoesn't have infinite funds to spend; he'll have to go to Congress with hat in hand with the Reps having to run for re-election with this on their record.-
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7 hours ago, BruceVC said: Iran will obviously accept any ceasefire because they fighting a defensive battle
I'm not clear that's true. In the past they have repeatedly acted to damage the political interests of the in-power President. With most of their military infrastructure destroyed, Iran may choose to play the long game and try to bottle up the Straits of Hormuz. The goal would be to damage the US economy and influence the next election. Democrats have shown more willingness to deal diplomatically with Iran, rather than resorting to force as
redactedhas done multiple times already.-
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I'm wondering what the "victory" conditions are for this conflict? Is it a win if regime change is achieved? Are we looking for a Treaty on Iranian interests in Lebanon and Gaza? Is there a hypothetical conflict we're concerned about? Otherwise, I'm not clear what it accomplishes, other than raising gas prices and burning a lot of expensive munitions. We supposedly already destroyed Iran's nuclear enrichment and tore up the nuclear treaty. Seems like it's primarily useful as a distraction from Epstein.
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19 hours ago, Zoraptor said: Wouldn't be all that surprising if Iran already has mined the Straits. Or at least, 'mined' them. There will be a lot of drone type developments at play that will be broadly indistinguishable from 'mines'. Indeed, there are multiple varieties of 'mine' that have very little in common with the classic floating porcupine design. Iran is known to have rocket propelled mines, that are seabed deployed and effective from ~200m depth.
The- pretty obvious, to anyone with two brain cells to rub together- negative of sinking Iran's entire navy is that there really isn't any drawback to denying the Straits to everyone in response. It's also pretty obvious to anyone following Ukraine that a country without a conventional navy can still do a lot of damage unconventionally. Shame Trump and Hegseth have to share the same brain cell, really.
Yes, I was expecting mining as well, but perhaps that's too indiscriminate. It wouldn't surprise me if they allow passage of China-bound vessels in exchange for Chinese military aid. That would cause
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3 hours ago, Malcador said: I'm guessing the thinking is going that since Venezuela was so easy, this will be too.
He believes in many things that aren't real, so yeah it's concerning about their strategic vision for Iran.
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Trump fires Homeland Security Secretary Noem after mounting criticism
Another one under the bus. Not a surprise really.
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8 hours ago, Zoraptor said: Netflix did not want WB's gaming division at all; their bid was specifically for studio and streaming assets. So it would have been sold off very cheaply or- probably, given its main assets are linked to WB IPs- shut down.
Though it's unlikely Paramount specifically wants the gaming part either their offer is at least for the whole thing.
The gaming division has been tanking of late and they are reducing funding. I wouldn't be surprised to see Paramount+ sell it off for the IP rights.
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On 2/4/2026 at 11:58 AM, Zoraptor said: And it still has the ultimate problem: if Sauron can subvert Celebrimbor's mind- and he'd be at worst the third greatest elf on ME behind single G and double G- then what does he really need the rings for?
Perhaps just greater range? For example, he could almost immediately connect with Frodo when the hobbit put on the ring. With the rings he can manipulate multiple heads of state at the same time at a distances of many weeks' ride.
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4 hours ago, Pidesco said: The recent reports is that the Iran government has a four person deep hierarchy for every meaningful position, which should mean Khamenei's death will either be meaningless or make things worse for everyone involved.
I do suspect it will now make the job of the Secret Service more difficult.
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I known DJT likes to gamble, but this attack can set of a cycle of revenge retaliations. I can't see Iran responding with a token attack this time; they will want to deter future raids. The whole event appears reckless, unwarranted, and poorly justified. Did the administration even bother to notify Congress?
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Another good reason to keep negative people out of your life.
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11 hours ago, Gorgon said: The absence of regular voting is worse. Having said that, the American political system is a bit of a joke. They should break up the two party system into smaller constituents like they do in anti trust cases, and institute proportional representation just for starters. An anti corruption drive is also sorely needed. by 'drive' I probably mean purge. Lock the worst offenders up and scare the rest straight.
Easier said than done. Neither of the existing parties wants competition, so they aren't going to change the funding system to allow more parties. The solution has to be mathematical: change the voting system to a non-pluralistic approach. Allowing people to vote for more than one candidate captures more information about the voters intent, and encourages non-extreme candidates. This approach has been tested in two states thus far (Alaska and Maine) and more cities are turning to this method.
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20 hours ago, Zoraptor said: If there's one thing Trump has proven it's that Europe does need another military union/ alliance.
NATO minus the US would mostly lose the ability to wander around invading random countries- ie 'force projection'- which may be a big loss if you want to have the North AtlanticTO fighting China in the Pacific, but isn't much of a loss for a defensive alliance in the geographic North Atlantic.
Europe does love convincing themselves that everything is going to work out if they just stick their fingers in their ears and sing loud enough for long enough though.
The negative is that it (seemingly) encourages more European powers to develop nuclear weapons. I could see Germany going nuclear if they are abandoned by the US, and possibly others: Poland would have a strong motivation given their history.
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Today in knucklehead:
Border patrol saves the nation from red party balloons
Hopefully nobody was trying to fly into El Paso. Classified briefing is scheduled...
The All Things Political Topic
in Way Off-Topic
Sounds like a grand opportunity to cut a Tarrif deal with
redacted. I'm sure he'd be all over that.