Elerond
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Posts posted by Elerond
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In Finland government didn't make masks mandatory, because then they would have to provide enough masks for everybody, which they at the time weren't able to do, because there was global shortage of quality masks. And now new daily covid infections have dropped to under 10 with other measures government doesn't anymore have emergency powers to mandate masks. So maybe masks mandates were also delayed in other countries because such mandates would have risked hospitals supply lines, which already weren't able to meet demands of hospital staffs because of mentioned global shortage of masks.
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3 hours ago, Orogun01 said:
I really have contentious relation with uppity second generation Latinx or whatever they call themselves to virtue signal. They're better off being dismissed as Gringos, please don't bunch immigrants with them.
Isn't AOC Puerto Rican descent, meaning that I don't think that her family tree has any immigrants (to USA)
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1 minute ago, Malcador said:
They do retail for that price, mind you they are not barebones - $300 USD for wireless with noise cancelling, whereas you can get a "regular" one for $80 USD.
Only ones that I found with retail price $300+ are Solo Pro and Beats Studio3 Wireless, but you can find even those $80-$100 cheaper if you don't buy them directly from Beats web store.
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I think you can see failure in her logic from point where she believes that some one is paying $300 for Beats headphones
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I would like to know why any number over zero should be acceptable when it comes to police committing wrongful killings.
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Seem like good way to tell people that ending restrictions don't pose risk for them
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54 minutes ago, Guard Dog said:
That is giving too much merit for people living 2020, considering that not only some people have always found cartoons characters offensive, but that cartoons have used as propaganda tools probably from invention of drawing and rulers have destroyed them and tried to prevent cartoonist to drawing them.
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2 hours ago, Guard Dog said:
If they want to de-fund the police go right ahead. It will be "the Purge" every night of the year. Works for me though. I'm one of those crazy, heavily armed, anti-government prepper types anyway. Go ahead and cut your own throats. I'll be just fine.
I can understand that there maybe reason to check police's budgets in cities like Los Angeles, where their budget is over 50% of city's budget and size of their budget is on same level or higher than military budget of some Nato countries with population two or three times larger. LA's police departments budget is about three times higher than budget of all police departments in Finland.
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I start to understand why republicans say that there is wide spread voting fraud in USA
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Hydroxychloroquine does not work against Covid-19 and should not be given to any more hospital patients around the world, say the leaders of the biggest and best-designed trial of the drug, which experts will hope finally settle the question.
“If you are admitted to hospital, don’t take hydroxychloroquine,” said Martin Landray, deputy chief investigator of the Recovery trial and professor of medicine and epidemiology at Oxford University. “It doesn’t work.”
Landray said the hype should now stop. “It is being touted as a game-changer, a wonderful drug, a breakthrough. This is an incredibly important result, because worldwide we can stop using a drug that is useless.”
The Recovery trial is a “gold standard” randomised controlled trial, designed to find an answer to a question by recruiting patients in similar circumstances either to take the drug or to take a placebo. Their doctors and the researchers do not know which ones are taking the genuine trial drug.
Because of the furore over the Lancet paper, the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency asked the trial’s independent monitoring board to look at the latest data. The board revealed the findings to the researchers, recommending that the hydroxychloroquine arm of the trial should be stopped.
Since March, when the trial began, a total of 1,542 patients had been randomised to receive hydroxychloroquine, while 3,132 patients were randomised to receive only normal care. Over 28 days, 25.7% of patients on hydroxychloroquine died, compared with 23.5% of the others. The difference is not statistically significant – it could have arisen by chance. But the clear conclusion was that hydroxychloroquine did not work, said the researchers.
Hydroxychloroquine just doesn't get breaks, as soon as there seem to be little hope, comes another crushing blow
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https://www.spartanchemical.com/sds/downloads/AGHS/EN/1202.pdf
GHS Classification
- Acute Toxicity - Oral: Category 4
- Acute toxicity - Inhalation (Dusts/Mists) Category 4
- Skin Corrosion/Irritation: Category 1 Sub-category
- B Serious Eye Damage/Eye Irritation: Category 1
Use only outdoors or in a well-ventilated area
Wear protective gloves. Wear eye / face protection. Wear protective clothing.
-Skin IF ON SKIN (or hair): Take off immediately all contaminated clothing. Rinse skin with water or shower. Wash contaminated clothing before reuse
Seems safe to me
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Bit ironic considering how much he says that such action is voter fraud
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"you have to dominate"
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4 minutes ago, Gfted1 said:
Holy moly you make a lot of money!
"Only" ~7000€/month after taxes
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5 hours ago, Volourn said:
"For example in SA people , including domestic workers, often refer to themselves as " maids or servants " but I dont because domestic worker is just a better term to describe an important job "
So.. the very people you claim to 'defend' because of bad words are saying clearly they are not offended by it. It is a job description. That's it.
P.S. The Carlin video is exactly what I was getting at it.
Obscure Job titles are good
Like for example I call myself coder, but my job title is senior software architect, I still mainly code but my monthly salary is 10k € higher than those whose job title is coder
EDIT: I mean which sound that they earn more money maid or senior domestic maintenance officer
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Corona style baptism
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It starts to seem that hydroxychloroquine only increases Covid-19's death toll
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31180-6/fulltext
Summary
Background
Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine, often in combination with a second-generation macrolide, are being widely used for treatment of COVID-19, despite no conclusive evidence of their benefit. Although generally safe when used for approved indications such as autoimmune disease or malaria, the safety and benefit of these treatment regimens are poorly evaluated in COVID-19.
Methods
We did a multinational registry analysis of the use of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19. The registry comprised data from 671 hospitals in six continents. We included patients hospitalised between Dec 20, 2019, and April 14, 2020, with a positive laboratory finding for SARS-CoV-2. Patients who received one of the treatments of interest within 48 h of diagnosis were included in one of four treatment groups (chloroquine alone, chloroquine with a macrolide, hydroxychloroquine alone, or hydroxychloroquine with a macrolide), and patients who received none of these treatments formed the control group. Patients for whom one of the treatments of interest was initiated more than 48 h after diagnosis or while they were on mechanical ventilation, as well as patients who received remdesivir, were excluded. The main outcomes of interest were in-hospital mortality and the occurrence of de-novo ventricular arrhythmias (non-sustained or sustained ventricular tachycardia or ventricular fibrillation).
Findings
96 032 patients (mean age 53·8 years, 46·3% women) with COVID-19 were hospitalised during the study period and met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 14 888 patients were in the treatment groups (1868 received chloroquine, 3783 received chloroquine with a macrolide, 3016 received hydroxychloroquine, and 6221 received hydroxychloroquine with a macrolide) and 81 144 patients were in the control group. 10 698 (11·1%) patients died in hospital. After controlling for multiple confounding factors (age, sex, race or ethnicity, body-mass index, underlying cardiovascular disease and its risk factors, diabetes, underlying lung disease, smoking, immunosuppressed condition, and baseline disease severity), when compared with mortality in the control group (9·3%), hydroxychloroquine (18·0%; hazard ratio 1·335, 95% CI 1·223–1·457), hydroxychloroquine with a macrolide (23·8%; 1·447, 1·368–1·531), chloroquine (16·4%; 1·365, 1·218–1·531), and chloroquine with a macrolide (22·2%; 1·368, 1·273–1·469) were each independently associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality. Compared with the control group (0·3%), hydroxychloroquine (6·1%; 2·369, 1·935–2·900), hydroxychloroquine with a macrolide (8·1%; 5·106, 4·106–5·983), chloroquine (4·3%; 3·561, 2·760–4·596), and chloroquine with a macrolide (6·5%; 4·011, 3·344–4·812) were independently associated with an increased risk of de-novo ventricular arrhythmia during hospitalisation.
Interpretation
We were unable to confirm a benefit of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine, when used alone or with a macrolide, on in-hospital outcomes for COVID-19. Each of these drug regimens was associated with decreased in-hospital survival and an increased frequency of ventricular arrhythmias when used for treatment of COVID-19.
Funding
William Harvey Distinguished Chair in Advanced Cardiovascular Medicine at Brigham and Women's Hospital.-
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1 hour ago, 213374U said:
edit: also of note, is that Sweden, with its comparatively hands-off approach, is still looking at a 6-7% GDP contraction as a result of all this. Even without lockdowns, the economy is going to take serious damage, and trust takes much longer to build than it does to break.
Sweden also will suffer unseen complication, as all other Nordic countries and Baltic countries have decided lift travel restrictions for each other citizens, but travel for people from Sweden is restricted until time that infection levels in Sweden are in same level as they are in other Nordic countries and in Baltic states. So at least for now favorite son of north has become a black sheep.
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Stray cats show example how to keep social distance
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3 minutes ago, 213374U said:
As I said, you don't "try" to build herd immunity. It's just something that happens naturally in any scenario where you can't stop the spread and the disease doesn't kill 100% of the infected. So yes, "building herd immunity" is not a very good strategy, unless doing nothing is a strategy. It will happen or not depending on how long immunity lasts, regardless of what we do.
As for a vaccine being ready for deployment in autumn, there's simply no basis for that, sorry. You can perhaps speed things up and cut down the time needed from several years to just one year, but on top of completing a development process with 90%+ attrition rates, you need to set up the logistical chains for manufacture and distribution of millions of doses. An ineffective (if not defective or dangerous) vaccine can be even worse than no vaccine because it would be difficult to maintain NPIs while also declaring that the vaccine works. The flu vaccine, for reference, is only 40-60% effective. That may not be enough to achieve herd immunity against SARS-CoV2.
Whether there are treatments that can help is irrelevant to the amount of people who die in a scenario where you are not at 100% capacity, because in that scenario everyone who needs treatment will get it, and if they die anyway it will not be because they couldn't get treatment. Those deaths are non-preventable: they didn't die because they couldn't be treated -- they died because people get sick and die at the best of times. If they died because they couldn't get treatment, that is a preventable death whether they died of corona or from drinking fish tank cleaning fluid.
The problem is when you assume that we'll have a miracle or vaccine really soon. It's not strictly impossible, but it's also not very likely, and making policy based on that strikes me as foolhardy.
And by the way, it won't kill 100% of people in risk groups, miracle or not. Closer to 20%, at worst.
Possibility for autumn vaccine is based on information hAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine that developed Oxford's researcher works on monkey and Indian medical company started to produce 40 million units of it and they estimate that million units will be ready in September in case that vaccine works. Of course as said vaccine has not yet properly tested on humans it may still fail, but even it fails to offer immunity it may offer mitigation for disease.
Also vaccines developed by Finnish researchers goes human trials in midsummer and four Finnish medical companies have plans to produce millions of shots of it towards beginning of next year. But they are behind Oxford's researchers and they have even less to show that it would work and it is safe.
Herd immunity doesn't necessary appear when disease spreads naturally, because percentage of population who have immunity never rose high enough to cause virus to cause its own extinction, like for example herd immunity against measles without vaccines doesn't seem to happen in population, even though it spreads fast and easily and people who had it develop lifetime immunity against it. This is said to be because ~95% population needs to be immune to measles in order there to be herd immunity against it and this doesn't happen because lowering spread speed and population turnover rate, which leads periodical measles epidemics in areas where populations aren't vaccinated. And there is possibility that corona is similar as influence and SARS, meaning antibodies against disease don't last long enough that populations could form herd immunity.
Even if you can ensure that hospitals don't work in their 100%, it doesn't mean that larger concurrent patient number doesn't cause preventable deaths, because larger number simultaneous patients cause higher risk that doctors, nurses and other hospital staff (and even other patients) get infected, which increase risk of them dying compared to scenarios where number of simultaneous patients is lower. Also total number infections in population is not same when you change speed of infection spread, even when you take in account possible second, third and fourth ... etc. waves. Lower spread also makes it easier to prevent disease ever reached elderly care homes and other places with high concentration of people belonging risk groups. In Finland, death rate was 37% (11/30) in among residents of elderly care home where disease spread unnoticed to almost all the residents.
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Lockdowns have expiration date, at least they should have as they are meant to be temporal way to control the situation in areas where spread of disease is out of the control or ensuring control during time when countries and areas prepare methods of control that are better aimed (or at least areas under lockdown should do such preparations), but lockdowns are just extreme method of control, but not only way and not best way to control disease in long run.
Also the Swedish strategy doesn't aim to stop or prevent disease in future, but to make future waves smaller and easier to control, so that they will cause less disruption in people's lives, but estimation models don't predict any clear long term benefits compared to strategies used by other countries I don't see it anyway good approach especially in current global environment where its benefits for economy are minimal.
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Is it spreading deaths if you just let people over 80 to die instead giving them care in order to keep ICU beds free?
Even if you believe that there is no way to prevent exposure to the virus over time then trying to build herd immunity is useless and we should just hope that for some miracle disease doesn't kill all the people in the risk groups.
There is already vaccines that works for animals and their human test have started or are starting soon. So there will be vaccines in autumn given that they may not give immunization for humans, just mitigate disease and increase number of those who have minor version of it. And of course there is change that those vaccines have side effects that prevent their usage in humans. And of course it will also take time to produce enough vaccine to vaccinate everybody or even those who belong in risk groups.
On theoretical level people counted dying from the virus aren't always same, because that would mean that 100% population gets sick and there is no methods to mitigate or prevent its effects on those who are hospitalized by the disease. Corona doesn't seem to have spreading power to actually infect 100% of the population even if there isn't any preventative methods used and we have medicine and treatments that increase change that people hospitalized by the disease will survive it. So number of people dying from the disease depends multitude of factors which have more or less effect on how many people disease kills, but in any case number of deaths is not written in stone
Edit: Herd immunity principal
Common definition
Herd immunity (also called herd effect, community immunity, population immunity, or social immunity) is a form of indirect protection from infectious disease that occurs when a large percentage of a population has become immune to an infection, whether through previous infections or vaccination, thereby providing a measure of protection for individuals who are not immune
But of course like with any term people have habit to use it in different context and give it different meanings
https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/52/7/911/299077
The term “herd immunity” is widely used but carries a variety of meanings [1–7]. Some authors use it to describe the proportion immune among individuals in a population. Others use it with reference to a particular threshold proportion of immune individuals that should lead to a decline in incidence of infection. Still others use it to refer to a pattern of immunity that should protect a population from invasion of a new infection. A common implication of the term is that the risk of infection among susceptible individuals in a population is reduced by the presence and proximity of immune individuals (this is sometimes referred to as “indirect protection” or a “herd effect”). We provide brief historical, epidemiologic, theoretical, and pragmatic public health perspectives on this concept.
[sources 1-7]
1. http://physwww.mcmaster.ca/~higgsp/756/Fox_1971.pdf
2. https://www.nature.com/articles/318323a0 (paywall)
3. https://academic.oup.com/epirev/article-abstract/15/2/265/440430?redirectedFrom=fulltext
4. https://academic.oup.com/cid/article-abstract/9/5/866/479603
5. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/A:1007626510002
These were clearly from same school of though as 213374U
QuoteThe term herd immunity has been used by various authors to conform to different definitions. Earlier this situation had been identified but not corrected. We propose that it should have precise meaning for which purpose a new definition is offered: “the proportion of subjects with immunity in a given population”.
6. https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/197/5/643/836719
7. https://www.cabdirect.org/cabdirect/abstract/20103167361
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18 minutes ago, 213374U said:
The reasoning is that the same amount of people die in either scenario -- the only really preventable deaths are those resulting from overwhelmed healthcare, and that justifies measures aimed at "flattening the curve".
Herd immunity isn't meant to protect a specific segment of the population. It's simply the only way out of the pandemic situation, absent a vaccine regarding which there are no guarantees. There's virtually no chance that we'll have a vaccine ready for deployment before 2021, and even that is extremely optimistic.
edit: problem is we don't really know how immunity works so "herd immunity" may not be a watertight strategy either.
Herd immunity is meant to protect those who aren't immune, by having enough people to be immune for the disease that will form blockade around those people who for some reason or another can't build immunity for the disease but if all the people who need protection of herd immunity are dead, then there really isn't herd immunity just people who didn't die when disease went through the population. This with presumption that immunity last long enough to prevent second new waves of the infection.
Also I am not sure if it should be actually called flattening the curve if you achieve preventing overhelmed healthcare system by not giving intensive care for people over certain age.
Coronavirus: Triple Edition
in Way Off-Topic
Posted
Here government spent close to billion euros to build several mask factories from scratch that will produce about 300 million masks in years, but even with money those factories took several months to be build and get manufacturing robots from China. But currently Finland is in my understanding Europe's largest chirurgical mask producer. Although that may come with quite big price tag in future as one part of deal to get those factories was that all the mask used by our hospitals will be ordered from those factories.