Balthamael

Figured that this thread might benefit from some actual math, so I took it upon myself. First watch when I pull some data out of my ass. The article mentions that the old lady won her first jackpot in 1993. So, let's assume that she has bought a ticket every week for 15 years. Probably not far from truth. That makes 780 tickets in total. Then we need to know what is the probability that a single ticket wins. Likely she has participated different kinds of lotteries and that probability will not always be the same. We, however, simplify the problem and assume that it is. The article mentions a number 1/1.8E25, which I assumed is the probability of four consecutive successes. From that, by taking the fourth root, we get p = 4,8549177 E-7 number of tickets = k = 780 When p and k are known, we can use the binomial theorem to calculate the desired number. Without further ado: Probability of at least three successes(it must be three, not four. Do you see why?) = P(X>=3) = 2.68 E-11, or 1 out of 37 billion. Make of that what you will. If anyone wants to check the math, be my guest. It's 2 am and I should be sleeping, so can't guarantee that it is right. Also, if someone has some better data, by all means use it.

I can tell you right now that nothing that has the probability of 1 out of 18 septillion happened. The reporter likely mistakenly factored the probabilities of four wins, and thus got a ridiculously low number. What that calculation tells you is the probability to win four times with four particular tickets. However this woman has probably been buying tickets every weeks for several years, and won four times over that time. The probability of that is considerably higher, though still not at all likely. But when you consider how many events happen every day in the world, you have to expect that something very, very unlikely happens every now and then. Somewhere there probably is someone who has been hit by lightning four times cursing this woman. Could be a scam as well, though I have hard time imagining how that could be done, given that the authorities conducted full investigation.

30C in Oulu as well. I just am not used to this kind of temperatures. It actually rained a while ago, and that didn't lower the temperature any. I don't know how that is even possible.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glg79r9KnQQ It was, actually. The tv-replay made it look like Heitinga just tapped Iniesta's shoulder, and Iniesta fell down. However, if you look at the broad angle replay, Heitinga has his hand on Iniesta's shoulder for good 1-1.5 seconds. The zoomed in replay begins when the contact is already about to end. Now, the angle is too broad for me to tell for sure that Heitinga is holding Iniesta, but given what I saw I am inclined to accept the referee's interpretation.

Not the best final I have ever seen (nor the biggest understatement I have ever made, though it comes close), but I am glad Spain won in the end. I've been supporting them for as long as I can remember. Don't ask why, the reasons would be hypocritical anyways. I guess I am just drawn to perennial underachievers. Not sure what I am going to do now that they no longer deserve that title. At any rate, this team didn't always show it, but they certainly had amazing amount of individual skill in their ranks. And I think they deserve this. Forlan won the Golden Ball for best player of the tournament. Personally I might have given it to Casillas, but I can't really disagree with that decision either. Forlan was the heart and soul of Uruguay's offence, and pretty much single-handedly (no Suarez jokes, please) carried the team to semi-finals.

Agree that this match isn't very good entertainment. Finals often are that way. Anyway, you be the referee, how bad an offense this is?

And Germany wins it in the end 2-3. Interesting game, good attacking football, like third place playoffs often are. Makes up for the probable defensive borefest tomorrow. And that ****ing octopus still hasn't been wrong.

Yeah, but that sort of illustrates an important point about Paul's success that people may be missing. He first gained international fame prior to the Germany - England match, having made three correct predictions before that point already. It is conceivable that there were numerous would-be animal oracles in the beginning, and we never heard about the failed ones. Paul was lucky enough to be correct sufficient amount of times to become an international star, and from that point on he has correctly predicted three times. If he chooses randomly, he had 1/8 chance to manage the feat through sheer luck. Hardly amazing odds, hardly something you would expect never to see. If he is biased in favour of Germany as I suspect (I don't know how or why that would be, but he does seem to pick Germany more often than one would expect), his odds are even greater because Germany often is the favourite to win any given game. Of course Paul had some measure of success as an oracle already in 2008, so if he had received substantial local interest then already, his feat in this World Cup does become more impressive by virtue of him not being exactly a nobody when making those first three predictions. In non-octopus related news, according to Bild Klose, Lahm and Neuer are not in Germany's lineup tonight, being replaced by Cacau, Aogo and Butt. Unfortunate for Klose if true, he is 32 and I doubt he'll get another chance to score those two goals to get past Ronaldo in the all time goal-scoring list.

I don't really agree that Germany chose a wrong strategy. Most of the game the Spanish midfield simply kept the ball and refused to give it away. Not much you can do about that, other than bid your time and hope for counter attacks. Anyway, ever reliable Paul has picked Germany for the bronze medal game and Spain for the final. Hopefully, if he is right about Saturday, Germans will forgive him.

I once made a facebook account for some reason. It has literally no other information about me except my name and an email address. I still get about one friending request a week from people I have never heard of. I have no idea why, or how.

Holland - Spain is the dream final to me. I've always liked the both teams. Whatever happens on Sunday, I am fine with it. Now, here is hoping Germany thrashes Uruguay on Saturday, and Klose scores the two goals he is short of immortality.

32C in winter? That's nuts.

Don't remember who did the Argentina - Korea match for our television, but he was awesome. The guy was a worse fanboy than Maradona. *Messi gives a cross into the box, which the Korean centre backs easily clean off* "And once again Messi gives a beautiful pass precisely into the right spot, precisely correct height. One can only admire his touch."

Is the Dutch commentator by any chance Jack van Gelder, by the way? I don't know anything about him other than that he is the voice on this video. The guy sounds dangerously unstable and totally awesome. The goal was amazing, though.

If Germany really loses now, that octopus is as good as sushi.

Okay, having rewatched I admit that Cardoso is affecting the play sufficiently to have it ruled offside. Even so, the penalty Cardoso missed on the second half should have been reissued since Spanish players had rushed the box. I don't know how often that rule is actually enforced, but since the referee enforced it later on Spain's penalty it should have been enforced here as well.

I am not seeing where he is accusing the referee of partiality, more like being blind which is par the course for this tournament. As for the demand of apology, I am not sure how the reporter managed to miss the obvious sarcasm. Given that Paraguay really was robbed in the match I think it is entirely understandable that the manager would vent a little.

I think in more ways than one it is more correct to say Iker Casillas saved Spain. Whatever Villa did, Casillas was the hero of last night.

There is a very real possibility that Germany will walk over everyone now. After today's display they are massive favourite to win it all.

In the last minute of a basketball game, you often see the losing team deliberately fouling and conceding free throws, because that'll keep the other team from running down the clock. This is an accepted strategy, I have never heard anyone complaining about it. I don't understand how that is any less underhanded than what Suarez did. Deliberately taking a red card and conceding a penalty helped his team in the situation, so he did it. Too bad Ghana couldn't finish it, but they have no one to blame but themselves.

Really didn't expect Brazil to lose the plot like that. But I am glad. If only Spain would manage not to choke tomorrow, this could be the first World Cup in my lifetime when there is no team in the semi-finals that I actively hate. Cause for celebration in itself. But that's for tomorrow. Right now...Go Ghana!

Really looked like offside to me, but after a lot of careful pausing of the video player, I think I can confirm Villa was onside. This is where Xavi touches the ball. He is on level with the defender furthest from the camera.

Proper replays suspiciously missing from that Villa's goal, but I don't care. Any goal that sends Portugal home is a good goal, as far as I am concerned.

If in need of scissors, my first choice would be to go into a store a buy a pair. The time it will take to convince people to lend me a pair is surely worth more than the two euros or whatever scissors are going to cost. Nevertheless, stated reason for denying the loan is patently absurd and I have to side with the dressmaker on those grounds.

There is a Swiss hockey player named Adrian Wichser. 'Wichser' = 'wanker' in German.