Totally not Gorgon
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Posts posted by Totally not Gorgon
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3 hours ago, Totally not Gorgon said:
months or years. Millions of willing resistance fighters. Millions of displaced refugees with nothing but hatred for Russia. The Ukrainians are simply done being told what to do. That's the main miscalculation.
So far the Russian invasion has achieved nothing much that will be of value on the negotiation table. Best case scenario, Russia started this slaughter for the win of some s
Minsk 2 mentions Donbas autonomous regions that would somehow also have representation in Ukrainian central government and have veto power over, say, NATO membership for Ukraine. Yeah, that was never going to fly.
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17 minutes ago, ComradeYellow said:
Search engines are your friend, living in bubbles where rich white people set the narrative is not your friend.
Russian Russian victory conditions:
Ukraine never becomes part of Nato and remains a neutral buffer state
Donbass region is fully recognized as an independent albeit most certainly a pro-Russian gvt
Stop neo Nazi's and other anti-Russian groups from attacking Donbass region, which brings us to
Completely deNazify all armed forces in Ukraine, especially the notorious Azov battalion (Ukrainian Nazi's think they are the true Slavs and Russian are inferior and Asiatic, Western liberals are actually doing a wonderful job perpetuating these early-to-mid 20th century stereotypes of Russians
.........
If all conditions are met, it's a Russian victory, if only some than it's a stalemate or a semi stalemate, if none than it's a Ukrainian victory, a neo Nazi victory, and a Western liberal victory.
I don't see the need to invade Ukraine to get most of those fulfilled. Russian armies present in the breakaway republics would more than likely have been sufficient to prevent attacks, and to finally negotiate and end to the fighting. What's more, Russia could have done this years past. Russia didn't, because it needed to build antipathy against Ukraine in preparation for an invasion, and because the war was serving them so well in destabilizing Ukraine and slowing down membership of both NATO and the EU, neither of which would have allowed Ukraine to join while it was fighting a civil war.
The West rather foolishly let Russia know by its actions that the opportunity to invade Ukraine was running out, and so Putin took our advice to do it while he could. It's pretty clear that Russia meant to overwhelm the whole of Ukraine, and claim the big prize, rather than the consolation prize of the Donbas, but couldn't do it because of the sad state of its armed forces.
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On 3/22/2022 at 7:36 PM, ComradeYellow said:
https://www.newsweek.com/putins-bombers-could-devastate-ukraine-hes-holding-back-heres-why-1690494
What's actually going on with the special operation in Ukraine. This whole time the U.S. has been projecting its air obliterator strategy it uses on brown countries but the facts show that the Russians are being very careful with their attacks.
Probably a bit to early to reveal truth bombs like this on Newsweek so I'm afraid the authors career might be in jeopardy.
@Mamoulian War is of course very wrong in Russians as a whole turning on Putin, as he maintains a 70% support which has been the mean consistency throughout his tenure. Maryana Naumova chimes in here in response to Arnold's crap response to the operation:
I don't understand what the victory condition is for Russia, I mean they could take Kyev and remove the government. And then what ?. Another Ukrainian revolution in either months or years. Millions of willing resistance fighters. Millions of displaced refugees with nothing but hatred for Russia. The Ukrainians are simply done being told what to do. That's the main miscalculation.
So far the Russian invasion has achieved nothing much that will be of value on the negotiation table. Best case scenario, Russia started this slaughter for the win of some small amount of territory and probably permanently terrible relations with Ukraine and the west. There is just no way it was worth it.
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Putin is doing a deep cleansing. You don't want to be any of those *toxins* leaving the body
He'll feel better once he has wrapped it up with a coffee enema.
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I'm jumping in at steam deck 2
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MYTH: The natural immunity I get from being sick with COVID-19 is better than the immunity I get from COVID-19 vaccination.
Ok, but isn't this a non sequitur. We are talking Vaccine + natural immunity. Not vaccine OR natural immunity
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You aren't making a lot of sense. Your reference to "Excessive lockdown language" is simply the variable I use to store the equation "lets not bother with lockdowns that don't work"
And indeed you don't seem to be advocating Omicron lockdowns anyway. You aggressively assign disproportionate meaning to adverbs. That said, a lot of people have felt lockdowns to be excessive, now, I don't particularly care about "feelings", but we do need to take stock and consider when and how we are allowed to interfere in people's lives for the greater good. The answer is not "never," and it's not "always" either.
So when does it become "excessive". Well arguably somewhere within the confines of having another choice to accept higher transmission and having emergency capacity bend, but not break, under the strain.
This is the difference between the early days of people dying for lack of ventilators, and now.
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54 minutes ago, Gromnir said:
is not so much math as rationalization. again, omicron, the least lethal major variant thus far, killed hundreds of thousands of americans in a relative brief period o' time, 'cause no matter how you wanna describe omicron lethality, covid today has the capacity to kill the infirm and healthy. recognizing the heightened transmissibility o' variants such as omicron, the math means those clowns who purposefully became infected with omicron also spread the virus to multiple other people, who also spread the virus to multiple other people, and so on, resulting in the unnecessary and predictable deaths of those who do not benefit from ideal vaccine protection or are unable to take the vaccine. so, the math tells you is smarty to chose to become infected by a highly transmissible and potential lethal disease to acquire some indeterminate and unreliable additional boost to your future resistance to variants is worth the risk to self and multiple other people? gonna embrace selfish and ineffectual instead o' proven mitigation efforts which when utilized quick and near universal has proven extreme effective, unlike widespread "natural immunity" which has never worked (again, watch the video we offered)?
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two years and counting.
HA! Good Fun!
Another thing to consider here, is that saving lives with extreme measures, which after two years I think you could call lockdowns, can be done more efficiently. If we force people to exercise or quit smoking we are pretty much guaranteed to save more lives. You seem to have zeroed in on 'voluntary infection', and what it is, is simply not choosing lockdown. The rest will take care of itself owing to the increased transmission of Omicron.
We are putting immunity in the bank from a standpoint of not knowing when or if there is going to be a better time to do so. It's not free, this is increased risk for people with existing conditions, but that is the nature of these calculations, that was always the case.
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6 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:
The ETA for an omicron specific vaccine was March, though it had been pushed out a 'couple of weeks' from that, apparently.
The issue with natural omicron immunity is that we already know it doesn't even protect fully against other omicron strains- if you've had BA.1 you can still get BA.2, and much like delta was BA.2 is also worse than BA.1 That's also immunity gained after being sick, not really comparable to immunity gained after a bit of a sore arm after a trip to a clinic.
It seems likely that we will run into the same supply problems from last time though, doesn't it.
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Well ideally they jab you in the arm with the vaccine and you come back a week later for a shot of virus in the other arm, and then you isolate.
But, this is the strategy pursued by many European countries. They pushed the third vaccine shot in the middle of winter, the usual high point for infection, and then didn't lockdown, like they had all the other years. hospitalizations and infections were very high. And, at least where I'm at the wave is bottoming out. So we are coming out of winter with high immunity.
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And of course, all other things being equal. the exposure leads to increased immunity, and therefore also increased protection for your surroundings.
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the math looks like this :
you know you are going to be exposed, you can't expect to avoid Omicron by isolating.
If you are exposed while your vaccine protection is the strongest. 1-3 months after your 3rd shot, you have mitigated the chance of severe covid by as much as you are able.
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Doesn't it stand to reason that what you get if you are exposed to Omicron ,is Omicron antibodies and Omicron immunity. Given that we don't know when or even if there is going to be another vaccine, Omicron antibodies might be a good thing to have come next winter, as opposed to three vaccinations worth of not particularly good protection.
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16 hours ago, Gromnir said:
is also far more people today than in 1918. more human fuel to exhaust also changes the timeline.
"excessive lockdowns" is kinda loading it eh? reasonable mitigation efforts may indeed include lockdowns. and china is a bad example w/o comparing to places such as new zealand which had a much different experience with omicron, which am suspecting you is already aware. the chinese vaccine is poor v. omicron and the oldest portion o' at least the hong kong population, where omicron has been particular deadly, is having poor vaccination rates, but is intellectual dishonest to take omicron insular. compare entire pandemic makes more sense, no? overall trend for those who utilized lockdowns judicious and were embracing vaccines and mitigation efforts reveals vast different body counts overall.
the thing is, lockdowns today is gonna be different than the past couple years. yeah, if transmissibility is extreme high and lethality is disproportionate low, then in a place such as the US where is functional impossible to get real widespread lockdowns anyways, such efforts is gonna be o' limited efficacy, which is why vaccines and n95s in indoor environments become more important. unfortunate, if you can't get vaccine rates much 'bove 2/3 o' the population and if southerners has declared they is over covid, then mitigation efforts kinda fail before they get started.
am genuine wondering how many people have to die for a few individuals to change their mind 'bout covid.
HA! Good Fun!
Lockdowns don't matter that much if mortality is very low. The only point of lockdowns is to spread out hospitalizations, they can't succeed in avoiding transmission long term. Not with Omicron anyway. So. If you have low mortality and even with very high hospitalization,. you should be swapping temporary vaccine induced immunity for much longer lasting natural immunity. You get new antibodies even without getting sick, although not as many, from just being exposed to the virus. This only goes if you have very high vaccine rates and preferably a third shot as well for the majority of the population. It's super important to have *some* antibodies as opposed to none. Which is why the largely ineffective vaccine is still an enormous life saver.
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Also an argument for not doing excessive lockdowns. The Chinese clearly miscalculated with Omicron. the vaccine wasn't good enough to solve the covid problem on its own, but, it can/could have been used to bolster natural immunity.
Vaccine protection from serious hospitalization, the factor that governs death rates the most, goes down by a whopping 10% in a couple of months, so really, in that timeframe, you should be deliberately exposing yourself to the virus.
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The main difference would be that Covid infected billions, not millions. Which should do something drastic to the time axis. That is, Covid should, hopefully move to a less dangerous much but more transmissive form much sooner. That's usually the winning strategy for the virus.
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Were riiiight on the cusp of financial recovery and then there's another 'thing'. Fuking russia, or another strain, or some bloody thing.
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I memorized the entire script when I was 17.
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17 hours ago, pmp10 said:
I wouldn't put too much credence to it.
There are a lot of demonizing rumors about Russian forces going around right now.
'Not one step back' brigades, mobile crematoria, finishing off own wounded, mining corpses and so on.
Usually spread by the same people who said Putin fired multiple subordinates (presumably Darth Vader style), yet we still see them showing up in official news footage.I haven't heard anything like that, but then I don't get news from twitter.
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I haven't head anything like that, but then I don't get news from twitter.
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Messing around in Cyberpunk. I thought, now that I have an RTX card i would switch it on and be amazed.
It looks the same, slightly better lighting, maybe. That's about it.
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Neil Breen eating tuna out of a can while driving.
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I mean after the supply situation has been alleviated and the market has finally stabilized, and we will sit at probably old MSRP + 30 %, something like that. As opposed to 200%.
not going down after that.
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I thought it was going to be torture watching my RTX 3070 ti depreciate in value every day until it bottomed out around summer. Actually the price hasn't moved at all. Probably inflation ?
30 series will lose 50-75 % of its value come q3 of course, with RTX 4000. But, that's a loss I would have taken anyway buying a stop gap card. I'm willing to bet I can still recover a decent chunk selling it used. GPUs are not going down in price, the market is still going to be thirsty, even with everything intel and AMD are doing.
Ukraine Conflict - Das Himmelfahrtskommando
in Way Off-Topic
Posted
I quoted the wrong thing.
ehh. Nevermind,