Wrath of Dagon

What you guys seem to fail to understand is that a probability infinitesimally close to 0 is functionally equivalent to 0. Think of the rounding error in the 100th place. The odds say it was impossible for her to win, yet she won. Hence the conundrum. Saying "BY CHANCE" explains nothing.

What about that claim? I was first in my college probabilty class. It's obviously the dope that's interfering with any logical thinking on your part.

I'm saying that something happening once in a trillion trillion years (or more closely trillion trillion trillion trillion years in this case) is functionally equivalent to never happening.

I didn't commit any logical fallacy. I said something that's extremely unlikely to happen will not happen. Some sequence of cards being drawn isn't unlikely, it has a probability of one. A particular sequence of cards that's predicted ahead of time will never happen, nothing said here changes that.

What earlier claims? I wasn't trying to support my earlier claims, I already explained those. I was answering other posts, which happen to be irrelevant to the subject at hand.

My point is you can not predict what sequence has been drawn, because the odds of any particular sequence are extremely low. Edit: In other words, the probability of some sequence being drawn is one, so of course some sequence being drawn will occur. However, the probability of any particular sequence being drawn is infinitessimally small, so drawing 100 Aces or any other sequence you'd care to predict ahead of time will never (or in a trillion trillion years) occur.

No one's ever drew 100 Aces though.

OK, everything you say is true, but what does it prove exactly?

Your analogy is wrong. This isn't about drawing any sequence of cards, it's about drawing a pre-determined sequence of cards.

I just calculated it, assuming the computer can do it 1 billion times per second, it would take 9.6e+47 years (47 0's), so I was a bit low with my thousand year estimate.

Yes, I already said it's not septillion for those reasons. It's still in the trillions though. It's pretty hard to believe we have randomly witnessed an event that only occurs once in thousands of universe lifetimes. If people would rather believe that than a supernatural explanation, it's up to them of course. I'll say that an undetected scam is the far likelier of the alternatives, but I don't believe that explanation in spite of the statistical evidence for it. Edit: If I wanted to do it I would write a program that deals cards like Calax described many times every minute and see how long it takes for the same combination to come up - but that's really irrelevant. The fact is that just because, as I have said, the chances are low it doesn't mean that something can not happen. It will likely not happen, you could say with almost full certainty it would not happen, but that does not mean that it could not happen. Yes, but your program may have to run for over a thousand years, that's a huge number we're talking about.

Try it then, it will never happen, I'm quite confident.

The probability of getting that order again would be around 2^50, so yeah, it would never happen no matter how many times you try. Edit: Actually it's 50 factorial, still pretty huge. Actually much bigger.

Sorry, double post.

That it's a scam. But if you're dead set on not believing that, it even makes more sense to just accept that she was incredibly lucky. You have not presented us with something that actually violates our current understanding of statistics. Yes it does. Something that only has 1 in trillions chance of happening shouldn't happen in the natural world. And I already accounted for the sample size, otherwise it would be septillions like the article says. OK, I'm willing to pursue the line of inquiry into why current statistics are inadequate, although I'm pretty sure they're on solid mathematical foundation. No big loss. Edit: Must have, the octopus' chances were only 1 in 256 though, so she did a bit better.

What makes more sense?

Luck: favorable results given unfavorable odds. Extreme luck: Favorable results given extremely unfavorable odds. It happens. It does not happen often, but mathematics dictates it *must* happen at some point if the sample size is large enough. Regardless, it most likely is a scam. Oh, and that article was idiotic: Anyone who passed high-school statistics can tell you that the only way to win a negative EV game in the long run is to not play. Yes, it should happen once in thousands of the lifetimes of the universe, how does that make you feel better?

What in the hell is extreme luck? Is luck some kind of measurable property? Edit: @kirottu 3 of those were scratch off tickets, so she wouldn't even know the numbers. She'd just get the next one from the machine, completely random.

OK, that wasn't entirely serious, but atheists don't believe in anything supernatural, right?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100714/ap_on_..._lottery_winner I don't think the odds are in septillions like the article says, but they've got to be at least in the trillions. The way I see it, there are only two possible explanations. Either this is the most elaborate scam ever, or there has to be a supernatural explanation. Take that atheists!

How about not make me stand up and lose invisibility when I'm coming out of cover? How about cover that actually works more than 50% of the time?

Remember how Activision wouldn't release Brutal Legend and wouldn't let EA release it either? I'd say all the bridges were burned a long time ago.

http://kotaku.com/5586641/tim-schafer-call...s-a-total-prick

Never heard of the guy before you posted it. Ask the french instead. He also clarified that his relations were not with children, unlike Polanski. Yes, his excuse was ever so believable. Of course no one knows what a "young boy" means, or what really goes on in Bangkok brothels.

This time it will be completely original. You spend ten years gathering the most psychotic and dangerous allies from all over Thedas. You also build up your castle, Normandy. Finally, it all culminates in a gigantic battle against your arch-enemy, the Assemblers.