Four questions, my dear righties... ;)

[Gorth]

On the money that firing someone like Mattis could along with such silly things as significantly curtailing (or god forbid, cancelling) F-35 production would hand to Trump's enemies the blade with which to cut his throat with (politically, of course).

Makes you wonder if F-35 cancellation is Putins price for returning those nude pictures to Trump...

[Agiel]

Richard Aboulafia actually dedicates the last half of an article on Trump and aerospace he wrote for Forbes on that:

 

 

 

But the world’s biggest military aircraft program, Lockheed Martin’s tri-service F-35 Joint Strike Fighter is probably Putin’s biggest target.  The F-35 is far from a superweapon. It’s late, way over budget, and stubbornly expensive.  It’s not the best fighter ever built; that honor goes to the F-22, which was killed primarily because of the Iraq War, and its enormous diversion of resources.  The F-35 survives as the most advanced plane left.

 

But the F-35 represents two things that Putin doesn’t have: an aerospace industry that produces amazing systems and technologies, and a global network of allies and partners that help build and purchase aircraft. Anything from the U.S. government that casts doubt about the F-35 program helps make Putin’s day, week, and year.

 

First, the F-35 contains a remarkable collection of onboard systems and sensors that make it a noteworthy combat aircraft.  From the electronically scanned radar and other targeting systems to the electronic warfare suite to the electro-optical Distributed Aperture System, to the jet’s sensor fusion capabilities, these components represent the height of the Western world’s aerospace technology.  They also make the F-35 the most effective Western fighter in production today.

 

By comparison, Russia’s latest fighter, Sukhoi’s T-50, is basically a collection of systems used on the existing Su-30 series, wrapped in a new airframe.  While new equipment is under development for the T-50, the roadmap for these systems is far from clear.  Worse, in terms of radars, engines, and other key technologies, Russia’s aerospace industrial base can only dream of the F-35’s capabilities.

 

As an aside, if the F-35 were to die, it would gravely damage all the companies behind these systems.  That means harm to almost every single Western aerospace company, which is surely in Putin’s interest too.

 

Second, the F-35 is being built with, and purchased by, almost every allied country in the world.  Yes, Canada is vacillating; but the UK, Italy, Australia, Netherlands, Norway, Israel, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, and Denmark have either taken delivery of their first F-35s, or will do so soon.  Many others, particularly in the Mideast, would love to buy F-35s but are not yet permitted to do so.

 

The F-35 partners also all build parts and systems for the plane, and have contributed to its development. Putin also knows that these countries are, for the most part, opposed to his interests and ambitions, and part of an aerospace alliance that wants almost nothing to with his nation’s aerospace industry. Putin also knows that killing or crippling the F-35 would reinforce the message that alliances no longer mean anything to the U.S., whether formal defense alliances or military industrial alliances.

 

This global network of partners and customers is something Putin can only dream of for Russia’s industry. Belarus and Assad’s Syria aren’t exactly lining up to buy or co-develop the latest Russian weapons.  Of Russia’s two important weapons clients, China is increasingly going its own way with indigenous programs, and India is looking to the West for imported aircraft (perhaps even F-35s within a few years).  Nobody in the world is going to help Russia bridge the technology gap between Russian systems and the F-35’s capabilities.  For these reasons, damaging the F-35 program is at the top of Putin’s wish list.

 

Given the economic and strategic stakes involved, Putin can be expected to use all his leverage to try to erode the massive lead of the U.S. aircraft industry. Will Putin get what he wants for Christmas, with the F-35 and other U.S. aircraft industry programs and interests? I guess we’ll see.

 

Thankfully Trump can't hurt the F-35 program without losing his populist cred (F-35 employs close to 150000 people in design, manufacturing, subcontracting, and supply-chain across 45 states). A line I've been trying was "It's a shame that probabilities cannot be expressed using negative numbers, since that would adequately describe the chances of Trump replacing the F-35 with F/A-18s."

Edited January 15, 2017 by Agiel