It does look like Obama is heading for a victory right now. He has been consistently polling ahead of Romney in every swing state, except for North Carolina. Even if the margins have been fairly slim, the fact that those slim margins have been in Obama's favor in nearly every swing state for a long time now, means it is most likely not a fluke. Also, Michigan was one of the major swing states until only a little less than a week ago, when it moved up to safe Obama. This means that come November 4th, Obama only needs to maintain all of his solid states, and win just a few of the swing states, whereas Romney has to somehow win almost every swing state in order to become president, which is highly unlikely. Of course we still have not gotten to the debates, which begin next month, but Obama has more charisma on camera, which will likely help him there.
Someone mentioned Obama ignoring the recent flare up between Japan and China, and I would say that it is partially true, but not completely fair. The US is obligated to protect Japan if its territory is military attacked by another country, which is not what has happened here (at least not yet). The US is not obligated to mediate disputes like this, although our military obligations mean that is probably in our interests that things proceed peacefully. Anyway, there is a lot of patriotic fervor over the issue on both sides, and so it would easy for anything he says to be taken and used by people who are being overly emotional, so it is actually a good idea to keep play this low key, and not make any bombastic statements in favor of Japan, as it could actually backfire in a big way. As for foreign policy, Obama has actually had a much different foreign policy than Bush, with his ending of our presence in Iraq, he has just been moving very slowly. Our national debt levels however, have increased very fast under his administration, which is a topic that he will need to address.