My money's on this one. Very well put, BTW.
I will say, however, that I don't believe that it started out this way. I believe that TSLRP began with the best of intentions; there wouldn't have been a beta to steal otherwise. But something happened along the way to cause it to degenerate into the very scenario that you describe, IMO. This whole sadistic, semi-annual cycle of hyping the mod and disappointing people has repeated itself far too many times over the past four years for me to draw any other logical conclusion. Continuing to give T-G the benefit of the doubt involves accepting too many coincidences to be realistic.