Will all be quiet on the Western Front?

[Rosbjerg]

As Europe is experiencing all time low birth rates[1], a financial crisis resulting in major government spending cuts[2], an increasingly older population approaching pension age [3] and growing xenophobia [4], which is scaring away qualified immigrants. One has to wonder what will happen to Europe in the next decades and centuries? (In essence this is a western problems as the US is also experiencing some of these problems.)

 

At the same time China is growing, educating and out developing us all, year by year.. An article here in Denmark followed high school teachers and leaders as they travelled to China to experience the difference - they were shocked, to say the least. The Chinese students were not robots, but intelligent, extremely devoted and ambitious beyond what most of us could ever dream of. 1 teacher were instruction 1200 students, no-one had cell-phones or other distraction. They are churning out nearly 500.000 engineers every year.

 

While we can't even seem to agree on how to adress the climate, the Chinese are building entire green cities. Of course this is not out of a sense of altruism, Chinas project is China.. but it still raises questions on adaptability and how societies address and confront problems.

 

Are we, our sense of liberty and democracy, becoming obsolete?

 

 

 

1. birth rates world wide

2. Widespread spending cuts

3. European age crisis

4. France deports Roma gypsies, Danish immigrant laws criticised as inhumane.

[Morgoth]

Nobody can really predict how's it going in the next 5-10 years, let alone decades. But as the Chinese say, we're definitely ahead of "interesting" times.

[Humodour]

I don't know about the 'Western front' but Australia is just dandy. In fact we're probably better now than before the GFC started.

 

Quit hyping up China I say. They're one player among many including ALL the Western countries, then Indonesia, Brazil/South America in general, Russia, India... ESPECIALLY India - India tips the balance unequivocally. And you do realise that Europe is the world's single biggest economy? The EU is larger than America in both population and GDP! That's not something that fades quickly (especially with significant portions of Eastern Europe with lots of growth capacity left), and birth rates don't fall forever - it's an equillibrium system.

 

And frankly, **** that Chinese attitude to work and study. What's the point of studying and working your life away if you rarely get to enjoy or experience it? How can liberty possibly become obselete?

[Atreides]

An opinion on the Chinese real estate bubble http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...hinas-real.html

 

I wonder how well the government-linked companies and financial institutions manage their risk. Not just economic risk, but overall business risk (think poor financial underwriting and understanding of the financial contracts they were getting into that lead to the subprime crunch).

[Rosbjerg]

Quit hyping up China I say. They're one player among many including ALL the Western countries, then Indonesia, Brazil/South America in general, Russia, India... ESPECIALLY India - India tips the balance unequivocally.

 

True, but China, India and Brazil are the only ones I think are going to make a big difference (as it seems right now). But I would not prefer India as a superpower over China - Brazil would be interesting though. Russia also seems to be heading into some kind of authoritarian dictatorship.. that might be good for business though?

 

And you do realise that Europe is the world's single biggest economy? The EU is larger than America in both population and GDP! That's not something that fades quickly (especially with significant portions of Eastern Europe with lots of growth capacity left), and birth rates don't fall forever - it's an equillibrium system.

 

I do, but we are facing some rather serious problems it seems.. The European economy is very interlocked and as Germany and France experiences problems then it hurts all the surrounding countries and economies - which then affects Germany and France again.. that, coupled with the ageing problem, could pose a serious threat to the general flexibility of our economic systems. It's true that the birth rates might re bounce and that the Eastern countries have a lot of growth potential - but my worry is not that we will cease to exist, but rather that our way of life is simply unsustainable in the long run. It seems that the major focus on freedom and liberty is causing people to be increasingly selfish and short-sighted.

 

And frankly, **** that Chinese attitude to work and study. What's the point of studying and working your life away if you rarely get to enjoy or experience it? How can liberty possibly become obselete?

 

For us? I don't it ever will and we can't imagine a life without freedom - but the average Chinese and Indian doesn't think like us.

[Moose]

In my mind the only thing likely to destroy the west is a synchronised nuclear strike launched from orbit by some nutty communist, followed by a full scale invasion.

[Humodour]

Quit hyping up China I say. They're one player among many including ALL the Western countries, then Indonesia, Brazil/South America in general, Russia, India... ESPECIALLY India - India tips the balance unequivocally.

 

True, but China, India and Brazil are the only ones I think are going to make a big difference (as it seems right now). But I would not prefer India as a superpower over China - Brazil would be interesting though. Russia also seems to be heading into some kind of authoritarian dictatorship.. that might be good for business though?

 

Russia will be part of a system of important counter-balances to China, dictatorship or not. As will all those countries I mentioned. You're focusing on the power of any one country to make a difference on its own when we're living in an increasingly connected, global, and multi-lateral world. Just look at the coordinated Asia-Pacific response this year to China's recent aggressive moves in the South China Sea and Asia more generally - you had countries spanning the whole gamut working together in concert to slap China down - America, Vietnam, Australia, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand... from memory.

 

Even China has a strong role to play in this new multilateral order, but my entire argument is that it will find it increasingly difficult to do anything unilaterally which harms another state, whether directly or indirectly.

 

Why do you distrust India, btw? The picture of India in Australia and America is rather rosy (and I would say with good reason).

 

And frankly, **** that Chinese attitude to work and study. What's the point of studying and working your life away if you rarely get to enjoy or experience it? How can liberty possibly become obselete?

 

For us? I don't it ever will and we can't imagine a life without freedom - but the average Chinese and Indian doesn't think like us.

 

China, maybe - let's wait and see, but my optimism leads me to disagree.

 

I definitely disagree about India - they're the biggest democracy in the world and they're very proud of their democratic tradition. You could probably say they're a few decades behind the West on some civil rights issues but they're also free to debate those issues and change them (and are doing so). They have a vibrant free press, a massively multicultural society, and the Indians I know (which is actually a rather large number since they're one of the big migrant populations of Australia) are just as hedonistic (which I would use a measure of how much a society adores its freedom) as Australians.

 

Another factor in India's favour is the growing empowerment of women - a key indicator of future economic and social prosperity in any society.

[Humodour]

I just realised I am focusing on the global/China part of your original question, Rosbjerg. I guess that's because I'm more informed about global issues than European ones. I would love to hear more about how Europe (and Japan and China) are tackling the aging population problem because it is one Australia will soon face.

 

As to the state of heightened xenophobia currently embracing Europe - well I think you can attribute that almost completely to the current financial conditions. It was predicted at the start of the crash, and it should subside once economies start to recover, no?

[Rosbjerg]

Why do you distrust India, btw? The picture of India in Australia and America is rather rosy (and I would say with good reason).

 

I don't distrust them per say - but they are a huge county which is facing some rather serious internal problems - the Naxalbari "civil war" is especially worrisome. But my concerns come from travelling in India and speaking to people in the country, from Goa, to Kanakumari, Delphi and Calcutta. They view the world in such a distinct and different manner - it's not worse or better than the west, it's just different.. What I meant with "not India over China" is that I don't think India is stable enough to have true global power yet. When they are however, they are more than worthy to take on the mantle of "world police".

 

Russia will be part of a system of important counter-balances to China, dictatorship or not. As will all those countries I mentioned. You're focusing on the power of any one country to make a difference on its own when we're living in an increasingly connected, global, and multi-lateral world. Just look at the coordinated Asia-Pacific response this year to China's recent aggressive moves in the South China Sea and Asia more generally - you had countries spanning the whole gamut working together in concert to slap China down - America, Vietnam, Australia, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand... from memory.

 

True.. I just look at China and see an extremely ambitious, powerful and growing nation - much like Europe in the 15th century and America in the 19th. As a nation transcends from regional power to world superpower some strange things happen in the mentality of the population, I worry what will happen in China. History shows that it isn't enlightenment and nobility that gets front seats.

 

just realised I am focusing on the global/China part of your original question, Rosbjerg. I guess that's because I'm more informed about global issues than European ones. I would love to hear more about how Europe (and Japan and China) are tackling the aging population problem because it is one Australia will soon face.

 

The short version - too little.. Italy for instance is giving tax cuts (or money incentives, I can't remember) to parents - but at the same time a lot of people fresh out of their education, have to work a year for free. That coupled with an apparent cultural focus on youth and beauty means that a great many of Italy's young men and women are focusing on their careers instead of making families. In Germany there seems to be a trend of women becoming either housewives or full time workers. This is perhaps because child care is too expensive or unavailable. Effectively though it means that a lot of money is wasted on education (as highly educated women stay home) and a lot of babies aren't born when some women understandably chose to wait too long. Also, from what I'm told, German men aren't that supportive either, in the sense that they let the women handle the babysitting - but I don't know if that's true.

 

In Scandinavia we have childcare and some very thorough Maternity leave laws - ensuring the mother and father can have a maximum of 114 weeks (+4 in case of illness) off with pay - although that's extremely rare, it's usually 3 months for the dad and 6 months for the mom. Then the government also pays up to 30.000 kr (6.000$) in what we call a "child cheque", on average it's about 1200$ per child, per month. You get extra pay, extra vacation, extra extra when you get kids here - and we still experience a decline in birthrates.. so the problem is complex and apparently throwing money at it doesn't help.

 

As to the state of heightened xenophobia currently embracing Europe - well I think you can attribute that almost completely to the current financial conditions. It was predicted at the start of the crash, and it should subside once economies start to recover, no?

 

I wish, the problem was there even at height of the economic boom. Now it's just worse.

 

The problems has partially arisen from the fact that a lot of immigrants in the early 70-80's actually did come here for the free cheque, which they could send home. This kindled a growing distrust towards immigrants who "only came here for the money", which further escalated the problem as serious immigrants began drawing to Canada, Australia and America instead .. probably because they actually appreciated them.

[Walsingham]

I am beginning to get a heightened sense of alarm concerning all these developments. India and Brazil are making headway but are unlikely to be real powerhouses to match tehir potential thanks to the internal issues they have surrounding wealth distribution, education etc.

 

Equally I feel Krez may be giving Russia and China too much credit for good sense. Autocracies, and large countries in general seem to me to have a habit of astonishingly bad decisions. Perhaps because their leaders are chosen by means of an internal game that works for higher stakes than the international one. Lose that internal game and you die.

 

I can't begin to see a healthy outcome from all this. I can follow all too easily how governments tried to drive economic booms by pumping money in. But it seems they mostly did it the moron's way by simply hiring civil servants.