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Probability calculator and Death Zone location


Question

The calculator that displays the probability of the roll succeeding doesn't take into account the effect of the Death Zone (specifically that it makes all 1s and 2s into 0s). For example if the check is a 5 and you have d4+4, it will say 100% when it's actually only 50%.

 

It's clearly just a case of no-one really having considered (or *cough* tested) this case, not really a bug as such. And of course I can make my own estimates without it like everyone always used to do anyway, it's not critical. But...

* It's annoying seeing the wrong value there.

* It's going to stuff someone up at some point.

* Whereas I now have a pretty good sense of the odds for typical rolls, I'd actually be quite interested to know what they are for certain rolls in the death zone. It's the one place where it might have been telling me something I don't already know. So it's a shame no-one's thought to implement it.

Edited by Irgy
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A similar problem exists with combat checks involving weapons that alter some die results, like the Fanged Falchion where a 4 rolled on a d4 counts as a 6 - there your probability to succeed should be higher (in some edge cases at least).

 

For example imagine Lini using a Fanged Falchion, an animal companion and a blessing of Gorum to roll 6d4 (disregarding any constant bonuses) - without the "die promotion" taken into account, she'd hit a 15 with roughly even odds (57.08% chance of success), but when factored in, the odds rise to a 76.64% chance of success against the same difficulty.

Edited by Thyraxus
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