Time to speculate.
- Microsoft is in dire need of good Xbox exclusives. Best case scenario would of course be a well established IP, not something completely new.
- Todd Howard showed up at the Microsoft E3 press conference and Fallout 76 had an Xbox exclusive early access, so there is definitely a partnership of some kind going on.
- The Fallout: New Vegas footage in the "special announcement" video is suspiciously in sync with people talking about what games Obsidian wants to make and what a Obsidian game is.
- Kotor also shows up alot, and although that in itself is not surprising given that it is a much beloved and classic Obsidian game, remember that Microsoft is partnered with Disney - and they own Star Wars as everybody knows.
- Given the nature of consoles and gamepads, the preferred exclusives would surely not be top down rpgs, but rather third person or first person games.
- I dare to say that Obsidian is a bigger name on pcs than on consoles, so having the announcement "Random new game from Obsidian exclusively for your XBOX!" would not draw nearly as much of a crowd than "Sequels from huge IPs that everybody is waiting for for years coming exclusively for your XBOX!".
So... conclusion in my humble opinion: The chances for a new KOTOR and Fallout: New Vegas are better than ever - if not very good all around. If I was Microsoft, I would have set my eyes on those to games as the Obsidian flagship games for future exclusives.
Since I love these games, I would certainly look forward to this, but it also saddens me that from how I see this new situation, Pillars of Eternity in its current form is most likely shelved.