I have just restarted the game after making my ideal POE1 import save. This time around, when I leave Port Maje (after buying supplies after leaving Villario's Rest), I never encounter Captain Furrante's ship.
I sailed all the way to Neketaka without encountering them at all. I even sailed directly to Fort Deadlight, still no encounter. The first illustrated-dialogue sequence triggers (with Berath and all the other gods asking what Eothas is up to), but no Serafen.
Thanks for your help!