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Just how big a success will Deadfire be in your opinion ?

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Ive got a feeling that deadfire will be game changer for RPGs in the modern era. I have big expectations for it and I am almost certain they will be met.

 

I'm expecting almost baldurs gate 2 kind of success to be honest.

 

Pillars of eternity 1 has sold somewhere between 1.5 mil to 2 mil copies.

 

Deadfire should do around 2.5 mil to 3 mil i think.

 

How big do you guys think it will be in terms of a success and how do you think it will define and compare to other modern RPGs in this era?

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I'm playing through PoE + Expansions right now and I love it. Hopefully Deadfire is successful enough to warrant a 3rd game down the line. Looking at how well Divinity OS2 is doing right now, there's definitely a demand for isometric RPGs with in-depth storytelling.

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It's going to be a flop of course. Haven't you seen all the people complaining about POE1 being trash and unwanted and that it sold badly so POE2 shouldn't exist?

 

 

 

^that line would be sarcasm if I actually didn't see those claims online in the last few weeks.

 

 

 

I personally expect sales around POE1, but maybe more frontloaded because people knows more about the IP and gaming websites talk more about it than when POE1 released. DOS2 is also doing very well right now and POE2 might release soon enough to "ride" its positive wave (or get trashed to oblivion because modern gamers seems more interested about finding The One Game to Rule Them All than actually playing games).

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Azarhal, Chanter and Keeper of Truth of the Obsidian Order of Eternity.


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I'm expecting that PoE2 will do at least as well as PoE, especially if they clean up some of the elements that were panned in PoE.

 

The console edition of PoE seem to be getting well received. It wouldn't surprise me to see that double the total from just the PC sales.

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What is "success"? Money? Then they've already landed 4.4M from the Fig campaign. Is "success" measures in "sales"? In that case they are underperforming with only ~33k backers, compared to 70k+ from PoE1 as of Feb 2017 (Pillars of Eternity 2 is the biggest crowdfunding success since 2015.). IMO, the number of units moving out the door will be significantly lower than PoE1 but maybe they made more loot off all the Fig "investors" + normal sales.


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What is "success"? Money? Then they've already landed 4.4M from the Fig campaign. Is "success" measures in "sales"? In that case they are underperforming with only ~33k backers, compared to 70k+ from PoE1 as of Feb 2017 (Pillars of Eternity 2 is the biggest crowdfunding success since 2015.). IMO, the number of units moving out the door will be significantly lower than PoE1 but maybe they made more loot off all the Fig "investors" + normal sales.

I know a lot of people who didn't want to back on FIG because it wasn't Kickstarter, they waited for Paypal (or for sales).

Edited by morhilane

Azarhal, Chanter and Keeper of Truth of the Obsidian Order of Eternity.


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I hope it will be what Baldur's Gate 2 was for Baldur's Gate. Not only a big jump in popularity but a better game in general.

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Hate the living, love the dead.

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Wasn't 70k+ PoE number of backers a bit innacurate as people made multiple small donations to unlock backer related rewards? I remember reading that somewhere, though I didn't follow PoE campaign closely enough to know if there is any truth to that. 

 

Original PoE got quite a lot of attention due to being high profile kickstarter and turning out solid. I wonder how many of them will retrun for the sequel, though. I felt PoE was a bit in Firaxis' XCOM situation and was forgiven a few mishaps by reviewers. Deadfire will not have the same advantage but hopefully it will be good enough to win people over anyway. I for one, know few people who didn't back a game but will certainly buy it, if they hear that its better than the original.

 

Whatever, its Obsidian's worry:-). I can't wait to get my hands on it. 


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Ive got a feeling that deadfire will be game changer for RPGs in the modern era. I have big expectations for it and I am almost certain they will be met.

 

I've had this feeling many times. Not once have it been validated in the end. You live you learn and so on but Deadfire so far seems to be shaping up to a good game atleast and I'm looking foward to it.

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Deadfire won‘t backfire. Its release will be a massive hit and create such an enormous ruckus amongst people that planet earth will hop out of its elliptic orbit and plot a direct collision course with saturn. That, in turn, will prompt hollywood to produce their ultimative disaster TV series featuring Lebombardo di Shrimpio and Kim Carcrashian.

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There's a big enough fanbase for this kind of game that it will be a success, but I doubt it will be a huge success.  It's too niche.

 

People always have complaints like "The combat is to slow", "I hate pausing all the time", "There's so much dialog to read".  I guess they prefer simpler more mind numbing games.  

 

PoE 2 isn't exactly going to be faster paced, if anything it'll be slower since they're trying to slow down combat to give you better tactical control.  Pausing might not be an issue for people playing lower difficulties if AI is improved enough though and it looks like it might be.  Dialog will always be a big thing in CRPGs.  

 

In other words, the people who didn't like it before are probably still not going to like it.  I am just thankful enough people out there do love this sort of game that PoE 2 will be a reality.

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The heyday of isometric RPG's is gone, people. BG2 will *never happen again*. We're lucky that they came back at all--we're lucky that these games even exist. Don't expect any isomeric RPG to be the biggest RPG success of the year. These are niche games, now. Look for a successful niche game, nothing more.

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If deadfire doesn't considerably out sell pillars 1 I am sure that obsidian would consider it a failure.

 

That's how I would gauge its success also. Deadfire needs to outsell pillars 1 to prove that there is significant demand in the market for these games to justify making more like them.

 

I must also say that making tryranny and torment tides didn't help there cause. Trash games like that trying to cash in of the back of pillars only damaged crpgs moving forward. There production is already fragile and didn't need bad advertising like those games gave.

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This big.

 

Yup, I also came to this thread to stretch my arms as far as possible and say, "this big!"

 

Seriously though, I do think it will be a success. The common man will probably not know about it, but it will be the toast of the RPG community. 

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Don't expect any isomeric RPG to be the biggest RPG success of the year.

 

Divinity Original Sin 2, which does count as an isometric RPG, is definitely one of the most popular and highest games this year, and it's a PC exclusive.  It definitely has a chance of being RPG GOTY for many sites and I'm sure it will sell close to a million copies long before the console versions hits.

 

CRPGs are definitely a niche genre at the moment, but Larian was smart enough to modernize the genre by giving it modern graphics, full voicing, and even things like coop multiplayer.

Edited by Bill Gates' Son
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This big.

 

I think you're being a little generous, I only think it's be this big.

 

More seriously, I suspect it will be about as successful as Pillars was, or a little more. Most people who bought Pillars will buy Deadfire, if not at release then somewhere down the line on sale, plus a few more. We'll probably see a small peak in sales of Pillars too, with people new to the franchise picking it up as well as Deadfire. I doubt it will sell significantly more copies than Pillars, but it doesn't really need to as Pillars was more successful than Obsidian had anticipated.

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Don't expect any isomeric RPG to be the biggest RPG success of the year.

 

Divinity Original Sin 2, which does count as an isometric RPG, is definitely one of the most popular and highest games this year, and it's a PC exclusive.  It definitely has a chance of being RPG GOTY for many sites and I'm sure it will sell close to a million copies long before the console versions hits.

Great. That's really impressive for an isometric RPG. Witcher 3 sold 4 million copies in *two weeks*. That's not counting 1.5 million pre-orders. That's the difference between a niche success and a mainstream hit. Do you think Pillars 2 is going to sell 4 million copies in it's first two weeks? Because I doubt it. I seriously, seriously doubt it.

 

Isometric RPG's are niche. Period. They sell 2.5 million copies total and they did quite well for themselves. D:OS2 is a really successful isometric RPG, one of the best of the year and it's getting hyped as one of the best ever, and if it hits 3 million units total I'll be surprised.

 

These are not mainstream games. Don't expect them to sell like they are.

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Don't expect any isomeric RPG to be the biggest RPG success of the year.

 

Divinity Original Sin 2, which does count as an isometric RPG, is definitely one of the most popular and highest games this year, and it's a PC exclusive.  It definitely has a chance of being RPG GOTY for many sites and I'm sure it will sell close to a million copies long before the console versions hits.

Great. That's really impressive for an isometric RPG. Witcher 3 sold 4 million copies in *two weeks*. That's not counting 1.5 million pre-orders. That's the difference between a niche success and a mainstream hit. Do you think Pillars 2 is going to sell 4 million copies in it's first two weeks? Because I doubt it. I seriously, seriously doubt it.

 

 

W3 was released on 3 different platforms.  DOS2 was released on one.  DOS2 also has one of the highest peaked player counts on steam (close to 100,000 people playing it at the same time).  No, I seriously think DOS2 is going to sale a lot of copies, especially when it comes on consoles.  It won't do Witcher 3's or Skyrim's numbers, but I think it will do low tier AAA numbers.

 

As for PoE2, I don't think it will do as well.  No controller support, no full voice acting, and a niche graphical style are going to hold it back from going mainstream.  But I gues it will do well enough for a niche game.

Edited by Bill Gates' Son
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This big.

 

Yup, I also came to this thread to stretch my arms as far as possible and say, "this big!"

 

Like from here to there.

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