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Zoraptor

US attacks on Syria

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Probably better to have a separate topic rather than clog up the Politics thread. I'll even edit in some links later.

 

Attack was on Shayrat military base which is in Homs governate, southwesteast proof read you numpty of the city. 59 tomahawk missiles launched from ships in the med were used. Russians were apparently informed an hour before (which fits with them issuing a warning not to do it), but had no input on the decision. Lots of rumours floating around (Bannon has resigned in protest etc) at this point, and no confirmed reports of damage.

 

Doubt very much more will come of it though, at least at this stage. Maybe the Pyotr Veliky will go to Latakia again and Assad will get some free pantsirs. Definitely no UN resolution will be passed now.

 

Beeb.

Al Jazeera.

RT.

 

Plus the best general map of the situation overall. Wikipedia based, so grain of salt, but it's more reliable than any other.

Edited by Zoraptor
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giphy.gif

 

Full Acceleration!

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Trump just blew through twice the budget of Mass Effect: Andromeda.

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The ending of the words is ALMSIVI.

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I guess all parties(Iran, Russia, U.S, Turkey...) are done doing buisness there and are slowly starting to wrap it up and leave Syria to its own fate. It's pretty sad. :(

 

It will probably be the exact reverse, which is even sadder. If everyone withdrew support the war would have been over by now, one way or the other. As it is Iran and Russia will up support to prevent any repetition and as a FU to Saudi/ Israel in Iran's case; US et alia will up support for Al Qaeda and friends as well as the Kurds. You can probably expect something like Shia militia from Iraq entering Syria (in larger numbers/ attacking up the Euphrates instead of helping around Mosul) in response, which will make things even more volatile.

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If things starts getting too hot at home, nothing like a cozy little war elsewhere to give people something else to talk about. Palmyra isn't Circus Maximus, but the mental image of a staged bloodsport game is hard to shake.

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“He who joyfully marches to music in rank and file has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would surely suffice.” - Albert Einstein

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Unfortunate that it had to be done by Trump as if feeds into his strongman image but better this than nothing.

Assad was testing red lines for quite a while now and showed no signs of stopping.

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Claims are that only 40% (23) of the tomahawks reached the airbase, and from the (lack of) damage to Shayrat that's pretty credible. There's literally no apparent damage to the runway (!) and many of the armoured hangars are intact as well. Exactly why so few arrived is a bit of an open question since Russia said they launched no counter missiles, so some sort of ECM seems likely (GPS spoofing, maybe). There's some limited drone footage of the base post strikes, though it's potato quality.

 

Unsurprisingly there's a lot of talk of Syria getting S3/400 SAM systems now, and the air coordination agreement between the Russians and US is suspended.

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Claims are that only 40% (23) of the tomahawks reached the airbase, and from the (lack of) damage to Shayrat that's pretty credible. There's literally no apparent damage to the runway (!) and many of the armoured hangars are intact as well. Exactly why so few arrived is a bit of an open question since Russia said they launched no counter missiles, so some sort of ECM seems likely (GPS spoofing, maybe). There's some limited drone footage of the base post strikes, though it's potato quality.

 

Unsurprisingly there's a lot of talk of Syria getting S3/400 SAM systems now, and the air coordination agreement between the Russians and US is suspended.

 

That is what the Russians are claiming: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfsZyV9eVcs From the pictures seen so far no way 49 cruise missiles hit that place. 

 

EDIT - supposedly large scale offensive by ISIS and Al-Nusra was launched right after these strikes. 

Edited by Hildegard

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Claims are that only 40% (23) of the tomahawks reached the airbase, and from the (lack of) damage to Shayrat that's pretty credible. There's literally no apparent damage to the runway (!) and many of the armoured hangars are intact as well. Exactly why so few arrived is a bit of an open question since Russia said they launched no counter missiles, so some sort of ECM seems likely (GPS spoofing, maybe). There's some limited drone footage of the base post strikes, though it's potato quality.

 

Unsurprisingly there's a lot of talk of Syria getting S3/400 SAM systems now, and the air coordination agreement between the Russians and US is suspended.

I wonder if this was the same situation as Clinton did in the '90's. He wanted to be seen as doing "something" but didn't want to do anything too bad so the fired missiles at camps knows to be empty.


"I care nothing for a man's religion whose dog and cat are not the better for it"

Abraham Lincoln

 

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Well, my take on this is "here we go again". Wading into yet another foreign entanglement that is not our problem. The situation in Syria is an absolute tragic mess and one the US had a hand in creating. But intervening in a mess created by intervention will not fix it.

 

I wish I could go back in time to 2003, right before the start of the Iraq invasion and tell GWB there are far worse things than dictators who behave predictably.


"I care nothing for a man's religion whose dog and cat are not the better for it"

Abraham Lincoln

 

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Trump finally got to the end of House of Cards I guess.


Remember: Argue the point, not the person. Remain polite and constructive. Friendly forums have friendly debate. There's no shame in being wrong. If you don't have something to add, don't post for the sake of it. And don't be afraid to post thoughts you are uncertain about, that's what discussion is for.
---
Pet threads, everyone has them. I love imagining Gods, Monsters, Factions and Weapons.

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Wow, the sheer amount of cynicism in this thread :p You know, I kind of appreciate that America is willing to counterattack the bad guys. It makes me think that if Kim Jong Un starts launching missiles at Japan, the US will do something about it.

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Wow, the sheer amount of cynicism in this thread :p You know, I kind of appreciate that America is willing to counterattack the bad guys. It makes me think that if Kim Jong Un starts launching missiles at Japan, the US will do something about it.

That is a whole different situation. We have a joint defense agreement with Japan. Any attack on Japan is an attack on the US. Ditto with RoK & Taiwan. But this Syria mess, there is nothing but bad guys. Attacking one empowers others. Choosing a side it what brought about this whole awful mess. The only thing to do now is just get out of the way until one side wipes the other out. Humanitarian aid for the refugees no doubt, but for God's sake don't wade into another quagmire that ends up replacing one hostile actor with another.

 

You think we'd have figure this out by now.

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"I care nothing for a man's religion whose dog and cat are not the better for it"

Abraham Lincoln

 

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For the uninitiated:

The reason Russia supports the Assad regime is because it allows them to stations their aircraft carriers in the Mediterranean, this fits their policy of projecting power towards Europe. The annexation of the Crimean peninsula gave Russia harbours in the black sea for resupply. Taking half of the Ukraine was to make Nato move their Anti-Ballistic Missile Shield, which had been a sticking point for Russia for two decades in international diplomacy. (Their point of view: those missiles are aimed at us, NATO point of view: No it's for Iran, "Buhlieve us") Nato did move their missile shield in response, one of the reasons Obama visited Poland during his second term.

Russia has taken the North of Georgia in 2008, during a campaign you may have missed because it just so happened to coincide exactly with the Bejing Olympics.

And Chechnya which bordered Georgia before that.

 

The current wave of Populist sentiment in Europe has been fostered by Russian espionage money, and it's bearing fruit, Britain has exited the EU, Trump is easier to deal with than Hillary, nationalists are winning votes. Europe could collapse if pushed.

 

Then there is Turkey, lovely Turkey, which controls the Bosporus, access for any fleet between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea is dependent on it.

Remember recently that guy from Syria who recently assassinated the Russian ambassador? Guess what the Ambassador was doing there? That's right, securing Turkey as an ally. That assassination only benefited the relationship Russia was going to have with Turkey. Recep Erdoğan's current rise as dictator of Turkey, is facilitated by a strong Russian influence. Recently there were protests in Germany and the Netherlands, that "mysteriously" turned into Riots when new protesters joined in from elsewhere.

These were protests, starting peaceful, against Turkey sending politicians to campaign for the Constitutional change Erdogan is pushing through.

More resentment in Europe towards Turkey fosters racism and nationalism in Europe. Nationalism is isolationism which helps with any divide and conquer agenda. Meanwhile Europe has an agreement for Turkey to deal with the Refugees from Syria, which means many get stuck, are sent back, or have to try more dangerous routes to escape war. Russia is weaning Turkey off of Europe in order to secure great ability for his fleet to project power. If Russia can deploy in all waters around Europe, and divert the US's attention either inwards or towards another rival, then it could proceed to conquer Europe.

 

Putin has constantly pushed an agenda of confrontation: I'm going to take this small thing, are you going to stop me?

no.

I'm going to take this small thing, are you going to stop me?

no.

Well, I'm going to do this thing, are you going to stop me?

yes, I'll make a resolution in the UN

Veto.

It was pretty good! why would you V-

Veto. Oh, and by the way, about our relationship...

I made some new friends.

 

Trumps decision to strike will escalate the conflict. His decision to not send in troops, and warn Russia, means that Russia will get to keep it's local resources, which is all that Russia currently requires. And I'm confident Russia was kind enough to tell Assad that maybe he should reposition his aircraft while he could.

Russia doesn't want the conflict there to end while Turkey hasn't been secured yet. Remember Georgia borders Turkey. If Russia gets Turkey and Georgia then it's got total control of the Black Sea.

 

Russia has been making plays for Europe. It's the KGB's old Grand Plan 2.0 FSB Edition.

 

I encourage anyone who is interested in what is really going on in the world to watch "Putin, Russia and the West" an EXCELLENT 4 part documentary featuring interviews with Putin's inner circle like Lavrov and Medvedev, Obama, Colin Powell, **** Cheney, Hillary Clinton, Mikheil Saakashvili, Condaleezza Rice, Nicolas Sarkozy and many other prominent figures.

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2iscmt

 

I believe this documentary is now more relevant than ever.

Geopolitics can't be understood in context-less 24hr newscycle newsbits.

 

And I promise you, it will blow you ff'in mind.

 

Edit: Getting proper video.

Edited by JFSOCC
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Remember: Argue the point, not the person. Remain polite and constructive. Friendly forums have friendly debate. There's no shame in being wrong. If you don't have something to add, don't post for the sake of it. And don't be afraid to post thoughts you are uncertain about, that's what discussion is for.
---
Pet threads, everyone has them. I love imagining Gods, Monsters, Factions and Weapons.

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Claims are that only 40% (23) of the tomahawks reached the airbase, and from the (lack of) damage to Shayrat that's pretty credible. There's literally no apparent damage to the runway (!) and many of the armoured hangars are intact as well. Exactly why so few arrived is a bit of an open question since Russia said they launched no counter missiles, so some sort of ECM seems likely (GPS spoofing, maybe). There's some limited drone footage of the base post strikes, though it's potato quality.

 

Unsurprisingly there's a lot of talk of Syria getting S3/400 SAM systems now, and the air coordination agreement between the Russians and US is suspended.

Well that is a bit embarrassing.

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Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra

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Wow, the sheer amount of cynicism in this thread :p You know, I kind of appreciate that America is willing to counterattack the bad guys. It makes me think that if Kim Jong Un starts launching missiles at Japan, the US will do something about it.

 

The difference here is that Japan is a civilized country and not literally al-Qaeda. Presumably, if Japan is attacked, we will have better evidence than "witness statements" from frothing-at-the-mouth terrorists and their propaganda mouthpieces.

 

This is looking increasingly like the usual worthless media bobbleheads are pushing for another Iraq War. The difference here is that the US will be entering a war where Iran and Russia already have significant forces, and where other actors like China, North Korea and Lebanese Christian and Shia militias can also be found.

 

Also, showing pictures of dead children in the UN when talking about a conflict where 500000 people will soon have died. WTF? Showing pictures of individual victims at this point is just myopic demagoguery and completely and utterly dishonest. This was exactly what everyone who was against Hillary feared would happen if she was elected - it appears in the US it takes more than elections to change the actual politics of the country.

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"Well, overkill is my middle name. And my last name. And all of my other names as well!"

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Assad launched the attack just days after we said we wouldn't try to remove him. You'd think he'd be happy but instead he commits what's seen as a deliberate provocation. So probably the thinking was if we don't respond, we're going to look weak and that's too dangerous for our other policies.


"Moral indignation is a standard strategy for endowing the idiot with dignity." Marshall McLuhan

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Claims are that only 40% (23) of the tomahawks reached the airbase, and from the (lack of) damage to Shayrat that's pretty credible. There's literally no apparent damage to the runway (!) and many of the armoured hangars are intact as well. Exactly why so few arrived is a bit of an open question since Russia said they launched no counter missiles, so some sort of ECM seems likely (GPS spoofing, maybe). There's some limited drone footage of the base post strikes, though it's potato quality.

 

Unsurprisingly there's a lot of talk of Syria getting S3/400 SAM systems now, and the air coordination agreement between the Russians and US is suspended.

 

You realise that even if one accepts the claim that only 23 targets were hit, common targeting procedure is to double (or even triple or quadruple, depending on target priority) up on munitions against one target for redundancy's sake (in the event defenders are attempting to intercept the missiles, or in case of weapon failure)? Or that many cruise missiles, particularly when used against hardened targets, detonate post-penetration so showing the exterior of a hangar after the strike may be misleading?

 

 

GBU-39 in this case, but same idea.

 

https://youtu.be/VplddV722wo?t=1m

 

And, you know, Russian MoD? They also said at first a Su-25 shot down an 777 flying at 33,000 ft with an AA-8 Aphid with a 3kg warhead.

Edited by Agiel
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Assad launched the attack just days after we said we wouldn't try to remove him. You'd think he'd be happy but instead he commits what's seen as a deliberate provocation. So probably the thinking was if we don't respond, we're going to look weak and that's too dangerous for our other policies.

 

The conflict has been going on for more than half a decade. Assad has been going through some very dark moments, where his opponents were very powerful. He has through all of this had a huge CW stash, which he relinquished in 2014. Yet CW has never been used consistently and on an serious scale in this entire conflict (by any actor). There are only a few isolated incidents: list here. Remember in 2013 when the exact same actors predictably beat the drums of war based on very dodgy evidence?

 

Why would Assad make this tiny CW attack now - attacking a sparsely populated suburb - when he has all but won? Literally the only thing which can turn this war around for al-Nusra is if they can lobby NATO countries into attacking Assad directly. Assad has nothing to gain but everything to lose by using CW.

 

I can't believe people buy "evidence" presented by al-Nusra (who have previously smuggled CW components from Turkey - why, if not to use them?) completely without questioning it.

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"Well, overkill is my middle name. And my last name. And all of my other names as well!"

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I'm just going by what our government said. Russians in their comments also seemed to admit that it was Assad. It's also reported the weapon was delivered by a SU-22, which had to be Assad. May be it's all a giant conspiracy, but I doubt it.


"Moral indignation is a standard strategy for endowing the idiot with dignity." Marshall McLuhan

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I'm just going by what our government said. Russians in their comments also seemed to admit that it was Assad. It's also reported the weapon was delivered by a SU-22, which had to be Assad. May be it's all a giant conspiracy, but I doubt it.

Yeah, what the US government says must be true without a doubt. 

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