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Whats the Chance we reach all the stretchsgoals ?


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TL;DR: is seems likely, but we'll have to wait a while to be sure.

 

LordCrash posted a comment on this question at the Fig site. He seems quite positive, mainly because of an interview with Feargus over at Gamebanshee. Basically, the Paypal-funding for PoE I collected around $ 1,000,000; so $ 600K for PoE II seems reasonable, I guess. However, do bear in mind that the Fig-campaign for PoE II attracted less 'normal' backers than the KS for PoE I. Still, some of those 'missing' KS-backers might stil back PoE II via the PayPal portal, I guess.

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The problem with this is that Obsidian had a whole pre-production period planning period as extra funds are collected to include and budget for the actual production schedule for Project Eternity. Development was three years+.

 

Deadfire is already in full production with a target release date for March 2018. They can't keep the slacker backer window open for too long without snowballing the development cycle. 

Edited by Leferd
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We've been having a little discussion about that over in the fig comment section. Basically, 4.5 million stretch goal is all but sure, 4.75 very likely, 5 million is a distinct possibility but I'm not extremely optimistic about it.

 

We'll have about 1 or 2 months to collect enough money to get to 5 million. This already is speculation, I don't think that there has any official word on when they're going to draw the line for the pledges to count towards stretch goals. they will have to do that rather soon though to finalize the game content for the last stretch of development.

 

There's an interview where Feargus says that the overall after campaign funds for PoE1 amounted to 1.3-1.5 million. That sounds very good but you have to factor in that the amount has been collected over a long time, over the entire development period in fact. However, as I've been told, the full reward options were only available for about 3 months so it seems likely that the bulk of the money was collected during that early time. Even without that I would expect most of the money to come in during the days right after the campaign when it's fresh on people's minds and still in the media. Later it probably slows down to a trickle.

 

PoE2 attracted fewer backers overall. Without investments we would have made only a little more than half of what the kickstarter campaign brought in. So if we extrapolate from that, we could expect an about of somewhere around 700k over the same period of time as funding was open after the first campaign. Getting to 5 million in time seems possible but not very likely. There's also an argument that there may be proportionally more backers going to be slacker backers this time because they might have not wanted to back on fig (for... reasons). I'm skeptical that this will make much of an impact but it's posible.

 

Anyway, this is all pure speculation and as such not extremely helpful. I do like to speculate about these things though. We won't know anything for sure until they tell us some figures. We know that they made about 13k during the first few hours when paypal was open. That's not bad...

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You want to know the actual chance? Hire a statistician. Even if it looks good, that doesn't mean it will happen.

​Promote the game, spread the word about slacker backing, spread the word that we could still reach stretch goals. Hope for the best.

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There are some things which can work in our favor this time around:

  • As mentioned by mumbogumshoe, people who didn't want to back on Fig may be persuaded to use the Backer Portal instead
  • PoE 1 met all its goals during the campaign, while PoE 2 still has some outstanding ones (Ydwin waifu!), which should result in more motivation (esp. if Obsidian gives us some fancy money tracker to obsess about)
  • Times of Numa-numa are about to go live, and they may bring some extra attention to the genre (similarly, PoE 1 is on a 60% Steam sale now)
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Its not like theyre going to wait till the last dollar is collected then say. Hey... now lets do this stretch goal.

 

Like us; they estimate.

 

4.5 is already in. Theyre starting it NOW. Same with 4.75. The moment theres anything of space in their workload they put it in.

 

Ofc theyre gonna collect 350k. Fig had basic gains of 100.000 a day.

 

So even at 1/3 they reach that in 10 days.

 

So if we get a month...

 

Leaves 20 days for 250k... (considering only a month)

 

You think if its longer then a month and they got 190.000 of those 250k they gonna say: hey lets wait till 60 then do work then publish. They work WHILE the goals come.

 

Im betting you the next guy-who-posts' virginity that theyre already writing miss Ydwin as we speak.

 

 

Writers write. They LOVE what they do. If if not yet greenlit theres a writer taking a break on the can with his laptop on his knees doing the groundwork XD

Edited by Leeuwenhart
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I think that 1/3 of the daily gains on fig during the campaign is a very optimistic estimation. 1/10 sounds more likely, maybe less. After all, there are no fig funds anymore which made up more than half of the money. And no campaign hype, no new stretch goals no interviews and articles in the media about it. We got about 31k in the last two days (slacker backers on fig, not including paypal), which is pretty good but much less than we got even on the slowest days of the campaign and it's only just over and still fresh in people's minds. I'll be very surprised if we make anywhere near that much a day a week from now. Would be happy if I'm wrong, of course.

Edited by mumbogumshoe
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I'm betting that they're already factoring Ydwin into the production. They can't afford to wait and see whether or not the stretch goal will be met. The fact that they've even announced the stretch goal sets an expectation. It'd be like promising my kid a bike as a reward for doing their chores for 6 months and then when they missed 3 days, not delivering. Ok, that was a terrible analogy, but you get what I mean. 

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I'm betting that they're already factoring Ydwin into the production. They can't afford to wait and see whether or not the stretch goal will be met. The fact that they've even announced the stretch goal sets an expectation. It'd be like promising my kid a bike as a reward for doing their chores for 6 months and then when they missed 3 days, not delivering. Ok, that was a terrible analogy, but you get what I mean. 

 

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I'm betting that they're already factoring Ydwin into the production. They can't afford to wait and see whether or not the stretch goal will be met. The fact that they've even announced the stretch goal sets an expectation. It'd be like promising my kid a bike as a reward for doing their chores for 6 months and then when they missed 3 days, not delivering. Ok, that was a terrible analogy, but you get what I mean. 

May I list your comment on "Wishful thinking" examples on Wikipedia?

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TL;DR: is seems likely, but we'll have to wait a while to be sure.

 

LordCrash posted a comment on this question at the Fig site. He seems quite positive, mainly because of an interview with Feargus over at Gamebanshee. Basically, the Paypal-funding for PoE I collected around $ 1,000,000; so $ 600K for PoE II seems reasonable, I guess. However, do bear in mind that the Fig-campaign for PoE II attracted less 'normal' backers than the KS for PoE I. Still, some of those 'missing' KS-backers might stil back PoE II via the PayPal portal, I guess.

Something to keep in mind is that with Kickstarter you could give just a dollar so it's likely when the mega dungeon was announced at least some of the backers were $1 donations to inflate the amount of levels. While something similar could have happened with Fig, the minimum of $5 probably hamstrung a lot of that and I'd wager a higher % of Fig backers are not alts of existing backers.

 

Still that leaves us with about 1.84 mil less from backers when compared to Project Eternity, with investors floating a lot more of Deadfire. I suppose some were wary of Fig and some wanted Paypal anyways, but it's going to be hard to say how many end up using paypal or slackback in time to meet any stretch goals.

"To be fair, if I was married to Milla Jovovich, I would also be happy just making movies that show off her butt." - Hurlsnot

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What's ths chance of getting my krakens and where's the numbers for paypal or slackerbacker?

"To be fair, if I was married to Milla Jovovich, I would also be happy just making movies that show off her butt." - Hurlsnot

"You need to be careful, lest I write another ten page essay on mythology and how it relates to Sailor Moon." - majestic

"I won't say what just in case KaineParker is reading" - Bartimaeus

"Oh no! Is there super secret ending as well? I don’t care." - Wormerine

"Get some poor minorities, that keeps WASPs away easy." - Malcador

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Slacker backers pledged $38k through Fig thus far (ref. Fig comments.) That doesn't include PayPal pledges through the backer portal.

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"Time is not your enemy. Forever is."

— Fall-From-Grace, Planescape: Torment

"It's the questions we can't answer that teach us the most. They teach us how to think. If you give a man an answer, all he gains is a little fact. But give him a question, and he'll look for his own answers."

— Kvothe, The Wise Man's Fears

My Deadfire mods: Brilliant Mod | Faster Deadfire | Deadfire Unnerfed | Helwalker Rekke | Permanent Per-Rest Bonuses | PoE Items for Deadfire | No Recyled Icons | Soul Charged Nautilus

 

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^ keep in mind that the ability to "slacker back" on Fig is a new feature that debuted with Deadfire. Chances are most people have no idea it's possible. They might gain some momentum as Fig and Obsidian start advertising it.

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"Time is not your enemy. Forever is."

— Fall-From-Grace, Planescape: Torment

"It's the questions we can't answer that teach us the most. They teach us how to think. If you give a man an answer, all he gains is a little fact. But give him a question, and he'll look for his own answers."

— Kvothe, The Wise Man's Fears

My Deadfire mods: Brilliant Mod | Faster Deadfire | Deadfire Unnerfed | Helwalker Rekke | Permanent Per-Rest Bonuses | PoE Items for Deadfire | No Recyled Icons | Soul Charged Nautilus

 

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