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The US Election 2016, Part VIII


Pidesco

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Been super busy. Don't have time to read stuff. Won't have time to read stuff for awhile yet. (I'm sure some here celebrate this).

 

Just wanted to pop and say hi to Leferd and that I haven't forgotten our wager. I fully intend to pay up or live it up. ;)

 

Welcome back Vals, I have missed your irrational views on topics  :teehee:

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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I dig Justice Thomas as well.  I just can't resist poking fun at WoD's sources every once in awhile.   :p

in all fairness, Gromnir don't dig J. Thomas.  wod's third linked article attempts to imagine a flaw as a strength-- no Justice on the Court so often writes solo opinions, and he is one o' the Justices least likely to be called 'pon to write a majority opinion. why? answer is simple: he ain't a good writer.  he ain't a brilliant scholar. write legal opinions is an exercise in argument... is persuasive writing.  the fact that Thomas so often writes solo opinions don't mean he is wrong, but it does tend to indicate that he failed to persuade any o' the other Justices. fifty years from now only a handful o' legal scholars and historians will recall Thomas' contributions to the Court... and a few constitutional law attorneys.  high school kids will never be exposed to a Thomas opinion that resulted in a cultural sea change.  even university students, 'less they is poli-sci majors or somesuch, will likely only be exposed to Thomas in connection with the anita hill situation.  and that is too bad.  while Thomas's writings is pedestrian at best, he clear has had influence on his fellow Justices.  dc v. heller and citizens united v. federal election commission won't be discussed fully w/o recognition o' Thomas' impact, but he didn't actual author either opinion.  even so, build a museum o' African-american history and one need recognize the historical relevance o' events and people not only now but in the future.  50 years from now Clarence Thomas is gonna be little more than a footnote worthy personage for historians. is too bad, but is also reality.

 

as we noted earlier, the politician's criticism o' Clarence Thomas is largely unfounded-- as with all the current Justices, Thomas is primarily driven by his legal philosophy.  casual observers likes to divide Justices based on liberal v. conservative, and that just don't work in most cases. sanctimonious liberal politician wanna criticize J. Thomas 'cause he is a black man who opposes affirmative action? *shakes head* is J. Thomas' integrity that prevents him from comprising his beliefs.  as a judge, we should be applauding those men and women who show such character on the bench. would you respect a catholic judge who treated catholic plaintiffs and catholic issues as if they were special or unique?  Gromnir wouldn't.  

 

J. Thomas is an admirable judge, but ain't a particular significant Justice.  is kinda ironic that such a recognition cannot be voiced w/o offending.  would be dangerous to careers to admit such. nevertheless, would be amusing to see how folks react if the Smithsonian actual were honest and observed that Clarence Thomas just ain't relevant enough to get more than footnote kinda coverage in a museum of african-american history.  

 

HA! Good Fun!

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enten-forecastupdate-1007.png?quality=90

 

CuCalioVYAAYF77.jpg

 

 

CuKWbg9XYAAi3UW.jpg

 

One month away. Polls show voters getting less undecided --and more used to the idea of voting Trump or Clinton vs. Johnson or Stein.

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Interesting post, see the quotes below. I would say this is true based on certain events and views people have ?

 

 

"Nevertheless, the results they present are eye-popping. On a wide range of issues, bureaucrats believe that Americans are ignorant. For instance, over half of them say that the public knows little to nothing about government crime programs, child care programs or environmental programs. 

 

Predictably, the bureaucrats also think that the government should not take what the public says too seriously. Mostly, they believe that officials like them should use their best judgment instead of following public opinion.

 

A lot of this elitism is probably justifiable. When only 36 percent of adults can name the three branches of government, you wouldn’t want to hand over control of FDA to, say, your next-door neighbor. In the sample of bureaucrats that Bachner and Ginsberg looked at, the majority had master’s degrees or more. It should be a comfort knowing that there exists a specialized class of people who have dedicated their lives to understanding the intricacies of, say, tax credits for the poor or the diplomatic intrigues of the Caucasus.

Bachner and Ginsberg don’t dispute that many voters are ignorant. In their view, however, D.C. insiders are needlessly disdainful of the regular Americans they are supposed to be helping and that this breeds distrust on both sides. Perhaps that’s one reason, they say, that American faith in government is at a 50-year low.

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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enten-forecastupdate-1007.png?quality=90

 

CuCalioVYAAYF77.jpg

 

 

CuKWbg9XYAAi3UW.jpg

 

One month away. Polls show voters getting less undecided --and more used to the idea of voting Trump or Clinton vs. Johnson or Stein.

 Holy Smoke is Clinton that far ahead, 78% vs 22 % ?

 

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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That's the chance of winning according to 538's model for analyzing polls. But yes, Clinton is currently leading in most swing states according to polling so the chance of her losing the election right now is fairly low.

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 Holy Smoke is Clinton that far ahead, 78% vs 22 % ?

 

 

 

For heavens sake NO.  As Pidesco mentioned, that's just the probability of either of them winning.  The actual vote spread (according to 538) is more like 48.5% v. 43.3%.  The gap started widening on Sept 26 and hasn't narrowed since them. 

 

Clinton has flipped Ohio, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina and Nevada back into her column.  Trump stands no chance of winning if that holds unless turnout numbers for the Dems go into the toilet.   

Edited by kgambit
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The poll results for likely voters are heavily influenced by the turn-out model used, these models involve a lot of guesswork, see Brexit polling, etc. But my feeling is the 538 probabilities are pretty accurate at this moment and there's not much time left.

"Moral indignation is a standard strategy for endowing the idiot with dignity." Marshall McLuhan

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 Holy Smoke is Clinton that far ahead, 78% vs 22 % ?

 

 

 

For heavens sake NO.  As Pidesco mentioned, that's just the probability of either of them winning.  The actual vote spread (according to 538) is more like 48.5% v. 43.3%.  The gap started widening on Sept 26 and hasn't narrowed since them. 

 

Clinton has flipped Ohio, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina and Nevada back into her column.  Trump stands no chance of winning if that holds unless turnout numbers for the Dems go into the toilet.   

 

 

it just needs to end now so we can go back to the normal reality in the USA

 

 

There will be a new and much more palatable GOP candidate after Trump...you know I just realized something I never thought I would need to admit, I miss the old GOP institutions and the guys who Trump side stepped. I would take any of them now over Trump even Carson?

 

My advice to all our Republican friends is dont stress about this election, its okay to not vote....you still make  a statement. Or just do what GD and others did and vote 3rd party ? 

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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 Holy Smoke is Clinton that far ahead, 78% vs 22 % ?

 

 

 

For heavens sake NO.  As Pidesco mentioned, that's just the probability of either of them winning.  The actual vote spread (according to 538) is more like 48.5% v. 43.3%.  The gap started widening on Sept 26 and hasn't narrowed since them. 

 

Clinton has flipped Ohio, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina and Nevada back into her column.  Trump stands no chance of winning if that holds unless turnout numbers for the Dems go into the toilet.   

 

 

it just needs to end now so we can go back to the normal reality in the USA

 

 

There will be a new and much more palatable GOP candidate after Trump...you know I just realized something I never thought I would need to admit, I miss the old GOP institutions and the guys who Trump side stepped. I would take any of them now over Trump even Carson?

 

My advice to all our Republican friends is dont stress about this election, its okay to not vote....you still make  a statement. Or just do what GD and others did and vote 3rd party ? 

 

 

Hahaha

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 Holy Smoke is Clinton that far ahead, 78% vs 22 % ?

 

 

 

For heavens sake NO.  As Pidesco mentioned, that's just the probability of either of them winning.  The actual vote spread (according to 538) is more like 48.5% v. 43.3%.  The gap started widening on Sept 26 and hasn't narrowed since them. 

 

Clinton has flipped Ohio, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina and Nevada back into her column.  Trump stands no chance of winning if that holds unless turnout numbers for the Dems go into the toilet.   

 

 

it just needs to end now so we can go back to the normal reality in the USA

 

 

There will be a new and much more palatable GOP candidate after Trump...you know I just realized something I never thought I would need to admit, I miss the old GOP institutions and the guys who Trump side stepped. I would take any of them now over Trump even Carson?

 

My advice to all our Republican friends is dont stress about this election, its okay to not vote....you still make  a statement. Or just do what GD and others did and vote 3rd party ? 

 

 

Hahaha

 

What?  Dont you realize people can  be conflicted ...remember, and no offense to you guys in the EU, but most people in the USA actually like the USA

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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If Trump loses, next presidential election unless Republicans sell out on every conservative principle they won't have any chance. Well, unless Hilzilla messes up on an apocalyptic level.

"Moral indignation is a standard strategy for endowing the idiot with dignity." Marshall McLuhan

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http://www.npr.org/2016/10/07/496996886/matt-drudge-suggests-government-may-be-lying-about-hurricane-matthew

 

This is Stalinism...after they somehow got tbe Weather Control superweapon from the Allied tech tree.

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http://www.npr.org/2016/10/07/496996886/matt-drudge-suggests-government-may-be-lying-about-hurricane-matthew

This is Stalinism...after they somehow got tbe Weather Control superweapon from the Allied tech tree.

Wait until Hurricane Joseph.

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TBH I wouldn't trust the polls. So far I'm getting calls almost every day asking who I will vote for and it's the same people. Even I tell them multiple times (what sometimes I'm stoned when they call and forget who they are lol) they keep calling. So u get enough people like me who REAlLY invested, one person could be quite a percentage depending on how many times they asked them lol

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http://www.npr.org/2016/10/07/496996886/matt-drudge-suggests-government-may-be-lying-about-hurricane-matthew

 

This is Stalinism...after they somehow got tbe Weather Control superweapon from the Allied tech tree.

They lie about everything else, so why not?

"Moral indignation is a standard strategy for endowing the idiot with dignity." Marshall McLuhan

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TBH I wouldn't trust the polls. So far I'm getting calls almost every day asking who I will vote for and it's the same people. Even I tell them multiple times (what sometimes I'm stoned when they call and forget who they are lol) they keep calling. So u get enough people like me who REAlLY invested, one person could be quite a percentage depending on how many times they asked them lol

 

I wouldn't either, especially ones claiming the larger public are retards. What metrics are they using? Who are they polling? How rigorous is their approach? Besides, who needs to be a genius to choose between Hillary or Trump? 

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538's (or to be more precise, Nate Silver) model factors individual pollster quality, methodology, and track record into the equation when they make their forecasts. The better quality the pollster, the more weight it has. They also weigh individual state polls more than general election polls.

 

If you want to peer review their process, it's right here: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

Silver's very good at what he does, and has an impressive body of work across multiple disciplines (baseball, elections, burritos).

Edited by Leferd

"Things are funny...are comedic, because they mix the real with the absurd." - Buzz Aldrin.

"P-O-T-A-T-O-E" - Dan Quayle

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If Trump loses, next presidential election unless Republicans sell out on every conservative principle they won't have any chance. Well, unless Hilzilla messes up on an apocalyptic level.

 

 

TBH I wouldn't trust the polls. So far I'm getting calls almost every day asking who I will vote for and it's the same people. Even I tell them multiple times (what sometimes I'm stoned when they call and forget who they are lol) they keep calling. So u get enough people like me who REAlLY invested, one person could be quite a percentage depending on how many times they asked them lol

Guys dont worry about the polls, rather use an objective source of information like me 

 

 

You must at least prepare yourself for a Hilary victory, if the Hilary presidency is as bad as you guys think I wont EVER  comment on US politics on this forum again 

 

I have prepared myself for a Trump victory.....its not ideal but its not the end of the world 

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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http://www.npr.org/2016/10/07/496996886/matt-drudge-suggests-government-may-be-lying-about-hurricane-matthew

 

This is Stalinism...after they somehow got tbe Weather Control superweapon from the Allied tech tree.

They lie about everything else, so why not?

 

 

Hah, good one.

 

Wait...unless your being serious.  

 

Please don't be serious.

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You don't think I'm serious that the current government lies about everything?

 

You must at least prepare yourself for a Hilary victory, if the Hilary presidency is as bad as you guys think I wont EVER  comment on US politics on this forum again

Yes, but what does "bad" mean to you? You'd probably enjoy living in a totalitarian system.

 

Edit: Probably Hilzilla's term would look something like this: https://fee.org/articles/how-roman-central-planners-destroyed-their-economy/

 

But hey, they lasted for 1000 years!

 

Edit2: Then there's this: http://nypost.com/2016/10/06/fbi-agents-are-ready-to-revolt-over-the-cozy-clinton-probe/ Yeay for gangster government!

Edited by Wrath of Dagon

"Moral indignation is a standard strategy for endowing the idiot with dignity." Marshall McLuhan

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"it just needs to end now so we can go back to the normal reality in the USA"

 

So.. you like it when the US cops murder innocent unarmed black men? Typical white Afrikan. L0L

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