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Agiel

"Robits takin' 'er jerbs."

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We've talked about the "drone doctrine" and runaway AI controlled guns going on killing sprees being the precursors of Skynet, but what do "robits" mean for the economy?

 

https://medium.com/basic-income/self-driving-trucks-are-going-to-hit-us-like-a-human-driven-truck-b8507d9c5961

 

In a society that sees greater and greater mechanisation and automation, where does that leave the working population of that society in 30 years (if that) time? For every industrial revolution the world has undergone (and the lack of capitalisation of "industrial revolution" is intentional, as is the use of the plural), we've managed to see at least a new set of jobs around the new industries created that replace the jobs that were rendered obsolete on an almost 1:1 basis, and that manages to keep most of the general population employed. But in a notional future, how many people can be employed with the advent of autonomous production lines and 3D printers?

 

Anecdote: I worked my way through college in retail and became acquainted with people who have had to do that for a living (plus 1 or 2 other jobs on top of that), frequently they were one catastrophe away from ruin. And after graduating from college I took up a position as a product photographer and photo retoucher for a fashion company that was very much production-oriented before finally getting promoted to a content artist. I was extremely grateful for that job since while I was able to be gainfully employed so soon after graduating (or at least get a position that had opportunities for growth, or gain experience as proof that I could be relied upon), I couldn't have said the same for about at least a fair portion of my graduating class. In the notional HAL-9000-oriented workforce of the future, what jobs for us squishy meatbags are left now that the only jobs on the market are CEOs, maintainers of HAL-9000, and his marketing team? I could definitely see that job I took up after college being done by a program in 20 years time (and there was already a great deal of automation being done with it, thanks to "Actions" in Photoshop) if it doesn't get shipped overseas before that, so some poor bastard who graduates from college will probably be SOL. Conservatively that can mean 25% unemployment; can our society function as it has with 1/4 of the working-age population idling about?

Edited by Agiel
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"Turned wrong way round, the relentless unforeseen was what we schoolchildren studied as 'History,' harmless history, where everything unexpected in its own time is chronicled on the page as inevitable. The terror of the unforeseen is what the science of history hides, turning a disaster into an epic.”

 

-Philip Roth, The Plot Against America

 

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"Always write angry letters to your enemies. Never mail them."

 

-James Fallows

 

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The area between the balls and the butt is a hotbed of terrorist activity.

Devastatorsig.jpg

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A ton of people unemployed through no fault of their own. Imagine, being born succinctly irrelevant. Gardeners and housekeepers might even become extinct ... every image of the future is incredibly spic-n-span ... as if by robots. Que lástima. Doesn't matter, I'll be even grumpier and gripping a cane or probably deceased by the time walking robots can fly to my iHome pod, fix a leak in the sea-air vaporator, and trim the lemon trees. Imagine that, the future, you're buried in the ground, unmoving, while six feet overhead the sand garden gets raked by robots because it never rains and there's no grass left on earth.   

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All Stop. On Screen.

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It seems like the future is going quite like Frank Herbert envisioned.

 

//edit: granted that a basic guaranteed income is introduced as soon as everything is automated. Otherwise we can kiss this modern society goodbye.

Edited by Meshugger
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"Some men see things as they are and say why?"
"I dream things that never were and say why not?"
- George Bernard Shaw

"Hope in reality is the worst of all evils because it prolongs the torments of man."
- Friedrich Nietzsche

 

"The amount of energy necessary to refute bull**** is an order of magnitude bigger than to produce it."

- Some guy 

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I for one am all ready for the Butlerian Jihad.

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Never attribute to malice that which can adequately be explained by incompetence.

 

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It seems like the future is going quite like Frank Herbert envisioned.

 

//edit: granted that a basic guaranteed income is introduced as soon as everything is automated. Otherwise we can kiss this modern society goodbye.

Basic income would be essential to keep society going as is, but that's short term. We'll have to completely reorganize our economy if we want to make it long term.


The area between the balls and the butt is a hotbed of terrorist activity.

Devastatorsig.jpg

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Interestingly, a new political part is gaining grounds here rapidly (just formed this year and already looking to take 2-8% of the votes in the election in 2 weeks) - Ominously called "The Alternative", which seems to wanna take the first step towards a post material society. A "Citizen's Pay", heavy focus on social entrepreneurship, a gradual shift away from industrial jobs, a redefinition of the industrial and economical growth paradigm.. Instead making society focus on the growth of happiness, renewability and ecological harmony. Open source democracy with Political Workshops open for every citizen to attend and completely open books as to how they get funding etc etc.

 

I hope it gains grounds, it would be cool if Scandinavia could spearhead the way into a 21st century economy.

 

 

Edit: of course at the same time we have 20% voting for a party which actively seeks to deport an entire immigrant family if one of the kids is convicted of a crime - even if he's 3rd generation Danish. So yeah...

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Fortune favors the bald.

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Interestingly, a new political part is gaining grounds here rapidly (just formed this year and already looking to take 2-8% of the votes in the election in 2 weeks) - Ominously called "The Alternative", which seems to wanna take the first step towards a post material society. A "Citizen's Pay", heavy focus on social entrepreneurship, a gradual shift away from industrial jobs, a redefinition of the industrial and economical growth paradigm.. Instead making society focus on the growth of happiness, renewability and ecological harmony. Open source democracy with Political Workshops open for every citizen to attend and completely open books as to how they get funding etc etc.

 

I hope it gains grounds, it would be cool if Scandinavia could spearhead the way into a 21st century economy.

 

 

Edit: of course at the same time we have 20% voting for a party which actively seeks to deport an entire immigrant family if one of the kids is convicted of a crime - even if he's 3rd generation Danish. So yeah...

 

You make it sound like both beliefs are mutually exclusive :p


"Some men see things as they are and say why?"
"I dream things that never were and say why not?"
- George Bernard Shaw

"Hope in reality is the worst of all evils because it prolongs the torments of man."
- Friedrich Nietzsche

 

"The amount of energy necessary to refute bull**** is an order of magnitude bigger than to produce it."

- Some guy 

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Interestingly, a new political part is gaining grounds here rapidly (just formed this year and already looking to take 2-8% of the votes in the election in 2 weeks) - Ominously called "The Alternative", which seems to wanna take the first step towards a post material society. A "Citizen's Pay", heavy focus on social entrepreneurship, a gradual shift away from industrial jobs, a redefinition of the industrial and economical growth paradigm.. Instead making society focus on the growth of happiness, renewability and ecological harmony. Open source democracy with Political Workshops open for every citizen to attend and completely open books as to how they get funding etc etc.

 

I hope it gains grounds, it would be cool if Scandinavia could spearhead the way into a 21st century economy.

 

 

Edit: of course at the same time we have 20% voting for a party which actively seeks to deport an entire immigrant family if one of the kids is convicted of a crime - even if he's 3rd generation Danish. So yeah...

 

You make it sound like both beliefs are mutually exclusive :p

 

 

Well, I can see them being mutually exclusive. The latter is the result of a competitive, self-centred outlook that makes the former rather difficult to achieve.


Never attribute to malice that which can adequately be explained by incompetence.

 

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Interestingly, a new political part is gaining grounds here rapidly (just formed this year and already looking to take 2-8% of the votes in the election in 2 weeks) - Ominously called "The Alternative", which seems to wanna take the first step towards a post material society. A "Citizen's Pay", heavy focus on social entrepreneurship, a gradual shift away from industrial jobs, a redefinition of the industrial and economical growth paradigm.. Instead making society focus on the growth of happiness, renewability and ecological harmony. Open source democracy with Political Workshops open for every citizen to attend and completely open books as to how they get funding etc etc.

 

I hope it gains grounds, it would be cool if Scandinavia could spearhead the way into a 21st century economy.

 

 

Edit: of course at the same time we have 20% voting for a party which actively seeks to deport an entire immigrant family if one of the kids is convicted of a crime - even if he's 3rd generation Danish. So yeah...

 

You make it sound like both beliefs are mutually exclusive :p

 

 

Well, I can see them being mutually exclusive. The latter is the result of a competitive, self-centred outlook that makes the former rather difficult to achieve.

 

 

But isn't it a self-centered and competitive outlook that created the automation industry to begin with?


"Some men see things as they are and say why?"
"I dream things that never were and say why not?"
- George Bernard Shaw

"Hope in reality is the worst of all evils because it prolongs the torments of man."
- Friedrich Nietzsche

 

"The amount of energy necessary to refute bull**** is an order of magnitude bigger than to produce it."

- Some guy 

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Share on other sites

 

 

 

Interestingly, a new political part is gaining grounds here rapidly (just formed this year and already looking to take 2-8% of the votes in the election in 2 weeks) - Ominously called "The Alternative", which seems to wanna take the first step towards a post material society. A "Citizen's Pay", heavy focus on social entrepreneurship, a gradual shift away from industrial jobs, a redefinition of the industrial and economical growth paradigm.. Instead making society focus on the growth of happiness, renewability and ecological harmony. Open source democracy with Political Workshops open for every citizen to attend and completely open books as to how they get funding etc etc.

 

I hope it gains grounds, it would be cool if Scandinavia could spearhead the way into a 21st century economy.

 

 

Edit: of course at the same time we have 20% voting for a party which actively seeks to deport an entire immigrant family if one of the kids is convicted of a crime - even if he's 3rd generation Danish. So yeah...

 

You make it sound like both beliefs are mutually exclusive :p

 

 

Well, I can see them being mutually exclusive. The latter is the result of a competitive, self-centred outlook that makes the former rather difficult to achieve.

 

 

But isn't it a self-centered and competitive outlook that created the automation industry to begin with?

 

 

Well, the competitive, self-centred view doesn't lead to the sort of society Rosbjerg is describing, but to the question: what to do with all the redundant people. Wait for them to starve? Have them shot? 


Never attribute to malice that which can adequately be explained by incompetence.

 

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Interestingly, a new political part is gaining grounds here rapidly (just formed this year and already looking to take 2-8% of the votes in the election in 2 weeks) - Ominously called "The Alternative", which seems to wanna take the first step towards a post material society. A "Citizen's Pay", heavy focus on social entrepreneurship, a gradual shift away from industrial jobs, a redefinition of the industrial and economical growth paradigm.. Instead making society focus on the growth of happiness, renewability and ecological harmony. Open source democracy with Political Workshops open for every citizen to attend and completely open books as to how they get funding etc etc.

 

I hope it gains grounds, it would be cool if Scandinavia could spearhead the way into a 21st century economy.

 

 

Edit: of course at the same time we have 20% voting for a party which actively seeks to deport an entire immigrant family if one of the kids is convicted of a crime - even if he's 3rd generation Danish. So yeah...

 

You make it sound like both beliefs are mutually exclusive :p

 

 

Well, I can see them being mutually exclusive. The latter is the result of a competitive, self-centred outlook that makes the former rather difficult to achieve.

 

 

But isn't it a self-centered and competitive outlook that created the automation industry to begin with?

 

 

Well, the competitive, self-centred view doesn't lead to the sort of society Rosbjerg is describing, but to the question: what to do with all the redundant people. Wait for them to starve? Have them shot? 

 

 

No idea, i am pondering on the same thing.


"Some men see things as they are and say why?"
"I dream things that never were and say why not?"
- George Bernard Shaw

"Hope in reality is the worst of all evils because it prolongs the torments of man."
- Friedrich Nietzsche

 

"The amount of energy necessary to refute bull**** is an order of magnitude bigger than to produce it."

- Some guy 

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Racism, egotism etc is a result of a scarcity mindset. A fear of limited resources and "not getting what I'm entitled to" and people taking more than they are worth - and so leaving you without, while those "less deserving" have more.

 

In a post materiel society that kind of mindset would have a much harder time manifesting, as everyone would in all practicality have access to virtually unlimited resources. Selfesteem issues however would be rampant, as Facebook has demonstrated.. Everyone would focus on how much better everyone else is at utilizing said unlimited resources. New technology, new issues..

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Fortune favors the bald.

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Fortunately, it's going to be some time before a robot can or will want to take my job. Unfortunately, that's because it is entirely surplus to requirements and I do something almost totally useless.


This particularly rapid, unintelligible patter isn't generally heard, and if it is, it doesn't matter.

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Obviously it is a long way off but I often ponder on this myself, many individuals I have known throughout my life have self identified via their occpations, indeed have almost lost identity when displaced from their chosen vocation. I think this self identification may be something that is not so easily shed, and in an age of plenty may inspire disillusion and maybe even anarchy. Much though I look forward to retirement, indeed I am semi retired allready, I still invest much of myself into my job and would not wish to be without it. Though to be honest I can't realistically see how my field can be downsized any more, it is cut to the bone allready.

 

I suppose at such a time as our lives become free of labour, the entertainments and diversions we choose to consume and take part in may well become far more important and well regarded than they are now, to the point where they define us in a similar manner to our previous careers.

 

I suppose that some northern English coal mining and steel working towns have allready experienced massive spates of unemployment thanks to the changing world, and have spawned a new class, lifestyle and modern forms of ghettos, if this is the route the changing world goes then I truly fear for it.


Quite an experience to live in misery isn't it? That's what it is to be married with children.

I've seen things you people can't even imagine. Pearly Kings glittering on the Elephant and Castle, Morris Men dancing 'til the last light of midsummer. I watched Druid fires burning in the ruins of Stonehenge, and Yorkshiremen gurning for prizes. All these things will be lost in time, like alopecia on a skinhead. Time for tiffin.

 

Tea for the teapot!

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We've talked about the "drone doctrine" and runaway AI controlled guns going on killing sprees being the precursors of Skynet, but what do "robits" mean for the economy?

 

https://medium.com/basic-income/self-driving-trucks-are-going-to-hit-us-like-a-human-driven-truck-b8507d9c5961

 

In a society that sees greater and greater mechanisation and automation, where does that leave the working population of that society in 30 years (if that) time? For every industrial revolution the world has undergone (and the lack of capitalisation of "industrial revolution" is intentional, as is the use of the plural), we've managed to see at least a new set of jobs around the new industries created that replace the jobs that were rendered obsolete on an almost 1:1 basis, and that manages to keep most of the general population employed. But in a notional future, how many people can be employed with the advent of autonomous production lines and 3D printers?

 

Yep. I posted something similar a while ago, where a London School of Economics professor dirty hippie discussed a facet of this. I'm still skeptical that we will see a comprehensive reorganization of the economy to accomodate for increased automatization and disappearance of human manual labor. Ideally, work hours would be reduced in average or altogether eliminated without an actual loss of purchasing power, which would supposedly increase demand for the kind of services that non-sentient machines cannot provide. In practice, we have a reduction or altogether elimination of work hours with a corresponding reduction in purchasing power (minijobs and unemployment), and an increase in the ratio of non-jobs dedicated to the non-economy to actual productive jobs. For example, machines are really good at counting, and despite high-speed trading accounting for roughly half of all equity transactions, the financial sector keeps on growing.

 

You wonder whether it's possible for a society to function with a 25% unemployment rate. The answer is a very emphatic yes. Spain currently is close to that figure (~23%) and what this means is simply the destruction of the traditional middle class that works for a living — we currently have an underclass that live off of a conditional government subsidy that is equivalent to roughly two thirds of minimum wage, and an upper class that has has grown by 27% since the 2008 crisis began. I'm not even getting into what this means for social stability, ecological sustainability, freedom and justice, and some other stuff nobody seems to give a toss about.

 

As far as I know, no credible effort is being made to correct any of these problems. As Rosbjerg pointed out, some "new" political movements are popping up that at least talk about these issues, but they propose the same old solutions with a strong statist slant that haven't worked as advertised in the past and are doubtful to work in the present where nation-states are very much depowered in the context of global economics.

 

Of course, anyone who talks about global economic imbalances and financial meltdown is likely to be branded a crank, despite the fact that we're still recovering from the last crash, and urgent suggestions are immediately made to cease pondering these things and to think about ponies and pretty flowers instead. Good luck.

Edited by 213374U
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- When he is best, he is a little worse than a man, and when he is worst, he is little better than a beast.

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I'm seeing more and more people questioning the status quo though - even my very very liberal (that's right wing here) family has started to question a debt based economical system, the growth paradigm and whether or not 'economic experts' have their best interest in mind .. Now they are pretty well off and well educated of course, so its not much of a leap for them, but that actually fills me with some hope. Just 5 years ago - animal welfare beyond a merciful death, social and economical renewability and these issues were basically a laughing stock in my hometown, definitely not so any more.

 

The very liberal newspapers here are also questioning whether or not we should call The Alternatives plans "utopia" or if there might actually be some merits to them. Baby steps, but still...


Fortune favors the bald.

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For every industrial revolution the world has undergone (and the lack of capitalisation of "industrial revolution" is intentional, as is the use of the plural), we've managed to see at least a new set of jobs around the new industries created that replace the jobs that were rendered obsolete on an almost 1:1 basis, and that manages to keep most of the general population employed.

It's not really that simple.

The idea of what a 'job' is has changed massively since industrial revolution.

Initially working hours have seen a massive increase since industrial employment was less seasonal than farm work.

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