Sure, Sawyer hasn't explicitly said they won't bend and twist simple mathematical calculations into an unintuitive mess, but I guess there's the possibility. He hasn't confirmed that 1 point of damage (per weapon description) translates into 5 points of damage (on the target) either, but we'll have to live with the dread of not knowing.
So you don't actually know, then... Seemed like an awful lot of words to say "I don't really know for sure." Your complimentary belittlement is always appreciated, though. Helps keep me grounded, ^_^
Not that I possess reasoning skills, as you well know, but it just seems like maybe there could be a non 1:1 translation between attack/defense values and points on the 1-100 to-hit scale.
Level is a big factor in your total defenses, but the character's class determines the starting point of each defense stat (which can be further modified by attributes, spells, abilities, talents, and equipment). For example, fighters start with the highest Deflection score and they maintain that advantage as they level up. If a fighter really wants to focus on holding a line in melee over doing damage, he or she can equip a shield and gain an even larger Deflection bonus. Unless you're higher level than the fighter, it's very unlikely that your Deflection-based attacks will come close to his or her Deflection defense, meaning you'll wind up missing a lot more than 5% of the time -- and it will probably be impossible to crit them. If you want to hurt fighters, use attacks that target Reflexes or Psyche, which are their weakest base defenses.
It seems as though, either the Fighter's gonna get a crap-ton more points of starting difference than has been hinted at thus far, OR points actually don't translate 1:1. I mean, just because you're up against a Fighter, and you're not higher level than he is, you'll probably "wind up missing a lot more than 5% of the time"? Doesn't sound like a 3% shift to me.
Of course, it could be. It simply seems as though it might not be as you've assumed, is all.
Yours in Inferiority,