Will Project Eternity raise 10M?

[WorstUsernameEver]

Very unlikely. Very very very unlikely. Now, going over DF/Wasteland 2's totals? Sure, that can happen. Not a given, but I'm not seeing that as an impossibility either.

[Chaos Theory]

Is there any possibility that kickstarter funds could be used to raise further development funds? If we raise 3-4 million in donations purely for a concept, couldn't you go to a bank and take out a loan based on "Hey, there's clearly a market for this. Give us a couple of million and we'll pay back with interest."? Could do the same thing with some investors. I'm not talking about going to a publisher or relinquishing any amount of creative control. It'd be a purely financial thing.

 

Why get a loan when you can go to the public, have them pay for your production, then pocket whatever profits it makes? Sounds like a pretty good deal to me if I were a gaming company.

 

However, you have to be careful not to be too successful, either. I know it sounds funny, but it's a fine line. At some point fans will say, "hey, you're going to make a mint on this anyway, why should I contribute?" It really is only extreme niche projects like this where I believe Kickstarter can, and obviously does, excel.

 

Now, if you had a form of Kickstarter where your kicked-in funds were actually invested-- meaning, you get a cut of the profits (or at the very least your money back if it does well), then we're talking. I see that as the next step. Why invest in a company via the usual, rigged financial system when you can invest in a specific game? Let the mega companies finance games like Call of Duty 58, while the little guy takes on neat projects like this that may or may not succeed. Because even financial failure for the investor can be a win, provided it's a good game.

Edited September 16, 2012 by Chaos Theory

[Foefaller]

I'm sure if they made 10m, heads would explode.

 

Half of that, 5m, seems like the upper limit of what's possible.

[Tigranes]

(Responding to Chaos Theory:) For something like Project Eternity that's highly unlikely - for the Ouya console or other kinds of proposals, perhaps.

 

For example, let's say that Eternity gets 50,000 backers, which is quite likely. That's 50,000 customers who won't pay a cent for your game. Now consider that at full price in the first few weeks of launch, Obsidian's titles sold as many as millions (New Vegas), a few hundred thousand (NWN2), or even below 500k (Alpha Protocol). All those were multiplatforms titles, and Xbox/PS3 has higher sales than PC, so you have to cut those figures by 1/3 at least. Project Eternity may sell quite well, but it most likely wouldn't sell millions upon millions. In short, you're not even close to looking at Obsidian walking away with buckets of gold.

 

There is a potential for them to make a profit, of course, because they're taking the sales money, not the publisher (who normally takes 100% minus pre-agreed royalties, if even that). But that's incredibly important for this Kickstarter model to work, because without a publisher, the developers aren't getting any money at all while the game is out on the market. They'd have to rush to start yet another Kickstarter to get enough money to survive, if they didn't have this profit.

 

Also consider that, in Double Fine's case, we've already seen how Amazon & Kickstarter take 5% each, then it cost them something like 10-20% of their earnings (~3million) to make and send out all the rewards, recoup the costs of the Kickstarter campaign, etc. My figures are from memory and fuzzy, but basically the point is, they need all the money they can get if this is going to work.

[Shadowless]

I see this being about as sucessful as WL2, maybe a little bit more so due to obsidian's "rpg gods" but not more than 4 million.

[Mamoulian War]

My bet at this moment would be between 2.5 and 3.5 mio, hoping to reach more than 5

[Pop]

These campaigns generally garner about 2-3x their initial starting goal, so yeah, $3 million would probably be a good target. Wasteland 2 had what, 60k backers by the time it was finished? At $40 average that brings us another $1 m, roughly, and there's the potential for thousands more.

[Chaos Theory]

(Responding to Chaos Theory:) For something like Project Eternity that's highly unlikely - for the Ouya console or other kinds of proposals, perhaps.

 

For example, let's say that Eternity gets 50,000 backers, which is quite likely. That's 50,000 customers who won't pay a cent for your game. Now consider that at full price in the first few weeks of launch, Obsidian's titles sold as many as millions (New Vegas), a few hundred thousand (NWN2), or even below 500k (Alpha Protocol). All those were multiplatforms titles, and Xbox/PS3 has higher sales than PC, so you have to cut those figures by 1/3 at least. Project Eternity may sell quite well, but it most likely wouldn't sell millions upon millions. In short, you're not even close to looking at Obsidian walking away with buckets of gold.

 

There is a potential for them to make a profit, of course, because they're taking the sales money, not the publisher (who normally takes 100% minus pre-agreed royalties, if even that). But that's incredibly important for this Kickstarter model to work, because without a publisher, the developers aren't getting any money at all while the game is out on the market. They'd have to rush to start yet another Kickstarter to get enough money to survive, if they didn't have this profit.

 

Also consider that, in Double Fine's case, we've already seen how Amazon & Kickstarter take 5% each, then it cost them something like 10-20% of their earnings (~3million) to make and send out all the rewards, recoup the costs of the Kickstarter campaign, etc. My figures are from memory and fuzzy, but basically the point is, they need all the money they can get if this is going to work.

 

Absolutely agree with you, this is a special case and Kickstarter is vastly appropriate. And I'm in at goldfinger level even, because I believe in what you guys are doing that strongly. I just see an interesting future when it comes to gaming-- and not just niche gaming, in relation to something like Kickstarter. At some point, someone is going to try and say, "hey, I know you love this series and we've made millions on it in the past, but we want you to front us "x" number of dollars to get started, or we aren't going to make another."

 

If there's a way to make more money with less risk, someone, somewhere will try it.

 

But if there would be a way for the game enthusiast to have a shot at getting those fronted funds returned (not a profit), based on the financial success of that game-- then it becomes a really neat partnership, I think. Gaming companies could then afford to take some risks instead of just milking the same formula, knowing that they have millions from KS-like funds in case of low sales. The gamers/investors will get their game, regardless, so they'd be happy as they had already invested knowing full well they may never see a return outside of the game itself.

 

But if that game turned out to have some financial success as well, getting some or all of their initial investment would make them ecstatic, and the company would now have a new intellectual property to grow. It's a win-win.

Edited September 16, 2012 by Chaos Theory

[JayDGee]

I'm guessing 2.5 at least. If press and hype go the right way 4.

[Rink]

It would be interesting to see how much money other projects raised in such a short time to compare. I think it is possible to reach 4-5 M. especially if many other gamer medias spread the news. And I think this is also needed for producing a good RPG (with hopefully many hours of innovative gameplay).

[Karranthain]

I'd say that 5-6 millions are entierly within the real of possibilty. They just need to figure out more enticing stretch goals and present them properly. They need to keep the momentum going.

[Voror]

I could see this reaching Wasteland 2's numbers and hopefully beyond past $3 Million. My max expectation would be $4 though.

 

I think it will help if they do regular updates outlining more information about the game. I know I always liked hearing updates from the people behind the game in videos like during some of the other campaigns. Certain goals might also help beyond what has been offered. I remember WL2 getting a push when it was announced Chris would be helping out a bit if we reached a certain number. Not really sure what they could do like that, though I saw a topic about George Ziets coming onboard as a possible goal to shoot for.

 

Reaching all the current goals at least would be enough for me right now.

[Arkeus]

I can see anything between 3 and 6 millions, most likely above 4 millions.

[DarthAdamRG]

I think there needs to be more reason to get pledges to a higher amount, classes races and a house are cool, companions too, mac and linux i dont really care about as I dont use one, but i still hope it gets between 2-5 mil, that for me is realistic and id like to see it.