Jump to content

The All Things Political Thread (The World and US Reunited)


Amentep

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, ComradeYellow said:

I think most people would agree at this point that any U.S. president is just a tool for the various securit/intelligence agencies and $U.S. interests$, regardless if it's Blue or Red.

If by most people you mean China, then I suppose you're right.

  • Like 1

"It has just been discovered that research causes cancer in rats."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@Malcador

There is no really a need to go that deep into some conspiracies, but it's not hard to imagine that the whole "court" around Biden is actually pulling a lot of strings. Effectively though, whatever he will announce or sign is the action. Just not sure how much of it is his own initiative, as I bet dollars against pebbles, that none of it is, based on how he is communicating and who is discussing policies with foreign leaders. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For those interested in more of monetary/economic policies, some more pessimistic scenarios to consider. A bit too pessimistic and overly dramatic for my taste, but not improbable, so worth considering. 

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cornered-powell-cant-raise-rates-economy-remains-life-support

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ecbs-financial-suttee

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

zerohedge, written by a psychotic nihilistic delusion, and your number one source of choice for creme-de-la-Kreml bots 👌

  • Like 1

Civilization, in fact, grows more and more maudlin and hysterical; especially under democracy it tends to degenerate into a mere combat of crazes; the whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, most of them imaginary. - H.L. Mencken

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Azdeus said:

zerohedge, written by a psychotic nihilistic delusion, and your number one source of choice for creme-de-la-Kreml bots 👌

Read this then. 

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN2BB0BV

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usd-bonds-yields-explainer-idUSKBN2BB230

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets-themes-idUSKBN2BB1CI

 

I'm not saying to treat something as an ultimate omnipotence, but the perspective is worth considering, or at least reading it with a critical mindset and challanging your own thesis on some aspects of the markets. 

 

 

NOTE: I wonder if in retrospective you would look back and see on what you thought possible before GFC and of the warnings by "doomsayers".  Same as on such warnings on the danger of the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak, etc. 

Edited by Darkpriest
Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

There is no really a need to go that deep into some conspiracies, but it's not hard to imagine that the whole "court" around Biden is actually pulling a lot of strings. Effectively though, whatever he will announce or sign is the action. Just not sure how much of it is his own initiative, as I bet dollars against pebbles, that none of it is, based on how he is communicating and who is discussing policies with foreign leaders. 

Dunno, his foreign policy strikes me as pretty close to what you'd expect if there was another/ 3rd term Obama/ Biden/ Kerry administration, with a few exceptions. There's lots of virtue signalling to show how different he is from Trump, not much actual action and mostly a rhetorical return to status quo ante, and we got some pretty obvious stupidities like the- somewhat- ludicrous statement that MbS would not be sanctioned for Khashoggi because "the US does not sanction foreign leaders". Which is news to a lot of foreign leaders, and precisely the sort of thing that Obama got himself into trouble with (eg his 'red line' in Syria, which turned out to be a kind of hazy squiggle). Stopping support for genocide in Yemen isn't exactly the bravest move in the world, and is far more of a return to Obama's policy rather than a punishment.

The big difference is probably Iran, where Biden has actually maintained Trump's policy over Obama's, while saying he isn't. Despite the US abrogating the treaty completely unilaterally and having admitted Iran was following it Biden wants Iran to return to full compliance before the US does, and renegotiate it too. That's absolutely 100% what Trump's policy was, to all practical purposes- Iran must continue to keep following the treaty we broke, while we ignore it and add multiple new conditions as and when we want. Pretty stupid approach if he actually wants the deal reinstated in any form, as Iran has elections in a few months that the reformists will lose spectacularly having had their cornerstone achievement crapped all over by the US like a coeliac eating a wheat vindaloo. Good luck getting anything at all out of a conservative government, but then that may well be the idea, so hands can be thrown up and claims can be made that Iran rejected the deal the US reneged on.

Should also be said, for all the treaties Trump reneged on only a very few- one?- have been reinstated by Biden like Paris. JCPOA, INR, Open Skies etc have all gone bye bye permanently, by all indications.

Edited by Zoraptor
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, rjshae said:

If by most people you mean China, then I suppose you're right.

Ok Alex Jones.

Some good news though:

Image

Greens doing well in Germany.  I think if/when I decide to bail the U.S. Germany is a solid choice.

Edited by ComradeYellow

“If we are to have another contest in the near future of our national existence, I predict that the dividing line will not be Mason and Dixon's but between patriotism and intelligence on the one side, and superstition, ambition and ignorance on the other.” 

-Ulysses S. Grant

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 3/21/2021 at 1:07 PM, Gorth said:

Sydney... the city that is never happy. First they whinge about bushfires devastating the suburbs and now that they get a fix for that, they whinge about the fix. Ungrateful louts, all of them 😁

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-56473115

More Sydney areas ordered to evacuate over major flooding risk

What can I say? When it rains it pours?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-56476998

About 18,000 Australians have been evacuated from flooding across New South Wales (NSW) as heavy rain continues to batter the east coast.

Days of torrential downpours have caused rivers and dams to overflow around Sydney - the state capital - and in south-east Queensland.

 

 

wait... south-east Queensland, that's me 😖

  • Gasp! 1

“He who joyfully marches to music in rank and file has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would surely suffice.” - Albert Einstein

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Gorth said:

wait... south-east Queensland, that's me 😖

Stay safe!

  • Like 1

Civilization, in fact, grows more and more maudlin and hysterical; especially under democracy it tends to degenerate into a mere combat of crazes; the whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, most of them imaginary. - H.L. Mencken

Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, Azdeus said:

Stay safe!

Thanks mate. I'm not living in low lying areas, so not really at risk. if the hill I live on floods, we have a different kind of (global) problem :)

“He who joyfully marches to music in rank and file has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would surely suffice.” - Albert Einstein

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Gorth said:

Thanks mate. I'm not living in low lying areas, so not really at risk. if the hill I live on floods, we have a different kind of (global) problem :)

Well, I'm thinking you might end up on an island all of a sudden =D

Civilization, in fact, grows more and more maudlin and hysterical; especially under democracy it tends to degenerate into a mere combat of crazes; the whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, most of them imaginary. - H.L. Mencken

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Gorth said:

Thanks mate. I'm not living in low lying areas, so not really at risk. if the hill I live on floods, we have a different kind of (global) problem :)

Yeah, hope you will not be downgraded from a continent to an archipelago 😉

On more serious note, hope you have some stash of emergency food and other nesesities in case return to normal would be a bit more bumpy or costly. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Yeah, hope you will not be downgraded from a continent to an archipelago 😉

On more serious note, hope you have some stash of emergency food and other nesesities in case return to normal would be a bit more bumpy or costly. 

 

Does 4 six-packs of toilet paper count? 🤔

  • Haha 1

“He who joyfully marches to music in rank and file has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would surely suffice.” - Albert Einstein

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Reading DP's links... mostly factual as far as they go. Bond yield rising in an of itself is not the concern. Although it IS curious because US fiscal policy and the actions of the Fed should make everyone nervous when Bonds become volatile.  The reason being inflation. When the Fed is promising to hold inflation at 2.2% it's a pretty safe bet you're already there and likely past it despite what you read in the papers. Which is why the Reuters article suggests the rise in yields is from investors shorting debt. Probably true but not for the reason they suggest IMO only. The thing to watch is Repo Market activity. That is where the first indications of trouble start. The Repo Market is a short term borrowing exchange between banks. The lending firm will "buy" securities from a bank or fund with the agreement the borrower will "buy" them back after the term of the loan at a higher price. It's like collateralized loan with the difference in price being the interest. The terms are short, obviously. 24-48 hours usually. Well, right now the hot item being "borrowed" are 10 year treasuries. The borrowers are are buying them from the Fed and using them as collateral in the repo market. The way treasuries work is as their prices drop their rates climb. The rates are climbing because there are suddenly a lot more on them in play.

That is the WHY behind the yields. WHY is the 10 year suddenly so popular? Dunno for sure. Purely my own opinion here but I think banks are waiting to see what the Fed is going to do. See if they will intervene. The outcome of this is an increase in real interest rates, something the Fed does not want (but IMO only should be allowed to happen). Another problem is if Bond yields get hot overall stock prices go down. Something else the Fed does not want.  Anyone who says they know what's happening and exactly what it means is just wrong though.

  • Like 1

"What can't be changed must be endured"

Robert Jordan

Link to comment
Share on other sites

National holiday eyed to commemorate emancipation

Nice idea. But.... I'm going to have to be a bit of a history snob here. The Emancipation Proclamation only freed the slaves in states that were rebelling. I get that Juneteenth is a big deal. But slavery was both legal AND practiced in Delaware, West Virginia (nice going Senator Willey /sarcasm), and (not legal but not stopped yet) Maryland when the sun set on June 19th 1865. They were all Union states and the EP was not binding on them. Slavery ended with the ratification of the 13th Amendment on December 6th. Delaware held on until the very end and West Virginia prosecuted slavery cases for years after.

Hey I am 100% for a holiday to commemorate. I just think it's inaccurate to say it ended on Junteenth. It didn't.

"What can't be changed must be endured"

Robert Jordan

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Guard Dog said:

National holiday eyed to commemorate emancipation

Nice idea. But.... I'm going to have to be a bit of a history snob here. The Emancipation Proclamation only freed the slaves in states that were rebelling. I get that Juneteenth is a big deal. But slavery was both legal AND practiced in Delaware, West Virginia (nice going Senator Willey /sarcasm), and (not legal but not stopped yet) Maryland when the sun set on June 19th 1865. They were all Union states and the EP was not binding on them. Slavery ended with the ratification of the 13th Amendment on December 6th. Delaware held on until the very end and West Virginia prosecuted slavery cases for years after.

Hey I am 100% for a holiday to commemorate. I just think it's inaccurate to say it ended on Junteenth. It didn't.

Well, think of it like celebrating July 4 1776 when all things were realized once the war was won.

Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Guard Dog said:

Reading DP's links... mostly factual as far as they go. Bond yield rising in an of itself is not the concern. Although it IS curious because US fiscal policy and the actions of the Fed should make everyone nervous when Bonds become volatile.  The reason being inflation. When the Fed is promising to hold inflation at 2.2% it's a pretty safe bet you're already there and likely past it despite what you read in the papers. Which is why the Reuters article suggests the rise in yields is from investors shorting debt. Probably true but not for the reason they suggest IMO only. The thing to watch is Repo Market activity. That is where the first indications of trouble start. The Repo Market is a short term borrowing exchange between banks. The lending firm will "buy" securities from a bank or fund with the agreement the borrower will "buy" them back after the term of the loan at a higher price. It's like collateralized loan with the difference in price being the interest. The terms are short, obviously. 24-48 hours usually. Well, right now the hot item being "borrowed" are 10 year treasuries. The borrowers are are buying them from the Fed and using them as collateral in the repo market. The way treasuries work is as their prices drop their rates climb. The rates are climbing because there are suddenly a lot more on them in play.

That is the WHY behind the yields. WHY is the 10 year suddenly so popular? Dunno for sure. Purely my own opinion here but I think banks are waiting to see what the Fed is going to do. See if they will intervene. The outcome of this is an increase in real interest rates, something the Fed does not want (but IMO only should be allowed to happen). Another problem is if Bond yields get hot overall stock prices go down. Something else the Fed does not want.  Anyone who says they know what's happening and exactly what it means is just wrong though.

This is another piece by another source and a bit different perspective, but it does highlight the dillemma of rates and perpetual, growing debt

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-has-forced-investors-take-excess-risk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

This is another piece by another source and a bit different perspective, but it does highlight the dillemma of rates and perpetual, growing debt

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-has-forced-investors-take-excess-risk

Deficit spending and uncontrollable debt will be our undoing. Not today, maybe not for a little while. But the day will come when the dollar is not the world reserve currency and debt will no longer be able to be monetized without consequences. We will not survive the stupidity of our political leaders nor the indolence of our voters.

 

"What can't be changed must be endured"

Robert Jordan

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Gorth locked this topic

More stuff here...

:closed:

“He who joyfully marches to music in rank and file has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would surely suffice.” - Albert Einstein

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...