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Politics... US election edition


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And nothing in the 200 years has shown much change to that...

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"Cuius testiculos habeas, habeas cardia et cerebellum."

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2 hours ago, Guard Dog said:

 

1 hour ago, KaineParker said:

Vermin Supreme is the only LP candidate worth anything. 

They're clearly picking The Riddler, you can tell from the video thumbnail. Which is a plot twist on everyone else constantly picking Oswald Cobblepots at least.

Either that or a very confused Gray.

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I finally got a chance to watch the entire SNL. First off, soooooo excited to watch Maya Rudolph for the next 4 years. Also, as satire, SNL played a part in the last 4 years, but you could almost sense that weight was heavy on them. I have said before it is a hit and miss show depending on hosts and all, but you could tell there was a lot of work put in during the last 4 years trying to keep it more satirical than simply silly and fun. This Chappel episode was a bit of a great release of that stress. Fun to watch.

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fantastic day in az for biden, although is curious so few ballots were counted. the largest batch o' votes came from pinal county, which is extreme red and had the most outstanding ballots uncounted in obvious red counties. ~13k o' the 20k votes counted today came from pinal. maricopa, by comparison, which had 24k votes ready for tabulation midday yesterday, only released 7k, and those broke 55/44 biden/trump.

trump gained 1658 on biden's lead today, cutting the overall margin to 16952.

were an overestimation on curable ballots. is closer to 6k instead o' 12k. 

coming into today, trump needed 56-57% kinda numbers to pull ahead. now trump needs 59-60%. again, that is a simplification 'cause is the spread which actual matters, but am offering just for those looking at announced ballot dumps and wondering what it means. regardless, if trend o' today continues, which is not a good assumption to make, then biden wins by better than 10k.

oh, and btw, az only has recount if margin is .1 or less. 

however, situation looked much different last night. one day changed things a fair bit, and at this snail pace o' counting, we could be waiting for tuesday (not counting the curable ballots) before we get everything counted. heck, a few more hours this eve could change the situation.

late monday might be when we genuine know 'bout az.

isn't necessary, but am hopeful home states o' john mccain and john lewis flip. also, the (frivolous) lawsuits from the trump campaign becomes effective moot if is such overwhelming ec numbers with which to contend. 

oh, and hospitalizations and death count from covid is rising dramatic... story didn't end nov 3 as trump predicted. we saw tapper at cnn lament the crowds in nyc, dc, atlanta and elsewhere. were not media silence on the issue as many claim. however, am hopeful biden makes a forceful announcement in the next day regarding the continuing dangers o' covid-19 and the importance o' social distancing.

https://www.hiawathaworldonline.com/news/national/biden-aide-responds-to-crowds-celebrating-despite-virus/video_c4391e1a-28d3-51d1-8b68-e4643edd2cad.html

at least the campaign is saying the right things, but this message needs to be communicated w/o equivocation. sure, the celebrations is mostly over, but the messaging needs be consistent if people are gonna take serious.

HA! Good Fun!

ps in the last couple minutes, biden's lead in az increased to 16985. +33 for biden. unfortunate, am having no idea how many votes were involved. could be 33 or 33000.

pps

it turns out there is a more practical reason the President is fighting the election results

60% of all money donated is going first to the trump election campaign account for debt retirement.

"Other Trump fundraising pitches in recent days ask for help to “protect the integrity of this election” but lead to a donation page for Mr. Trump’s “Make America Great Again” committee. The fine print on those solicitations says 60% of a contribution helps the campaign retire debt and 40% goes to the Republican National Committee."

yet another trump scam and his supporters is only too happy to enable the soon to be former President.

HA! Good Fun!

Edited by Gromnir
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"If there be time to expose through discussion the falsehood and fallacies, to avert the evil by the processes of education, the remedy to be applied is more speech, not enforced silence."Justice Louis Brandeis, Concurring, Whitney v. California, 274 U.S. 357 (1927)

"Im indifferent to almost any murder as long as it doesn't affect me or mine."--Gfted1 (September 30, 2019)

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For an opinion piece talking about some Trump legislation...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/31/opinion/republicans-biden-taxes.html

The Trump administration has a dirty little secret: It’s not just planning to increase taxes on most Americans. The increase has already been signed, sealed and delivered, buried in the pages of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

President Trump and his congressional allies hoodwinked us. The law they passed initially lowered taxes for most Americans, but it built in automatic, stepped tax increases every two years that begin in 2021 and that by 2027 would affect nearly everyone but people at the top of the economic hierarchy. All taxpayer income groups with incomes of $75,000 and under — that’s about 65 percent of taxpayers — will face a higher tax rate in 2027 than in 2019.

For most, in fact, it’s a delayed tax increase dressed up as a tax cut. How many times have you heard Trump and his allies mention that? They surmised — correctly, so far — that if they waited to add the tax increases until after the 2020 election, few of the people most affected were likely to remember who was responsible.

Looking at the analyses of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office and the Joint Committee on Taxation at the time the December 2017 tax bill was enacted, we see very clearly how different income groups are affected by the Trump tax plan. And it’s disturbing.

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"Cuius testiculos habeas, habeas cardia et cerebellum."

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https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/07/politics/transition-biden-coronavirus-task-force/index.html

I am very glad Biden is immediately implementing certain policies and views he articulated in the campaign and this new Corona task team is the right approach

The USA needs to urgently address the virus spread throughout the country and this should be  the primary focus of the new Biden administration around resource and policy allocation 

The longer the USA is not able to function and conduct its global business properly the longer the world will take to recover from the virus lockdown and virus health impact

Well done Biden :thumbsup:

 

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"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

 

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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14 hours ago, Gromnir said:

fantastic day in az for biden, although is curious so few ballots were counted.

I realize that this is only maricopa county, but may help answer some of your questions, assuming that the situation is consistent across the state

https://twitter.com/MaricopaVote

Also: https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html#

Edited by Achilles
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"Art and song are creations but so are weapons and lies"

"Our worst enemies are inventions of the mind. Pleasure. Fear. When we see them for what they are, we become unstoppable."

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45 minutes ago, Achilles said:

I realize that this is only maricopa county, but may help answer some of your questions, assuming that the situation is consistent across the state

https://twitter.com/MaricopaVote

Also: https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html#

the maricopa twitter is tending to post after everybody else on the planet found out news elsewhere, and is often... unenlightening. however the table which shows how nyt is posting results is useful.

for az specific, if people are genuine curious, we recommend the following:

https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html

is a detailed breakdown o' votes remaining. having followed since the election, am able to conclude with some degree o' certainty that the numbers is at least slight overestimated. nevertheless, the current votes remaining to be counted is 76997, and that includes those 6202 ballots requiring curing. 

also, this guy, affiliated with abc 15 in az, is posting results from the az counties in real-time. the self-proclaimed "data guru" is providing numbers same or slight before nyt is posting and with detailed breakdowns.

HA! Good Fun!

 

 

"If there be time to expose through discussion the falsehood and fallacies, to avert the evil by the processes of education, the remedy to be applied is more speech, not enforced silence."Justice Louis Brandeis, Concurring, Whitney v. California, 274 U.S. 357 (1927)

"Im indifferent to almost any murder as long as it doesn't affect me or mine."--Gfted1 (September 30, 2019)

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This will be a year that built various groups of zealots, from BLM, Antifa etc, to Trump fanatics. 

Another example of people looking at patterns and confirming their bias? 

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/it-defies-logic-scientist-finds-telltale-signs-election-fraud-after-analyzing-mail-ballot

 

I wonder if dems and reps will each split into additional two factions, of woke communists with AOC, Warren and Bernie leads, and Trumps nationalists, 'Murika first

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I got some great news. It turns out the Tampa Bay rays really won the World Series after all. All I had to do is refuse to accept that the Dodgers actually won. Clearly there were some irregularities in game six. So anyway now the Rays are the champs. I can’t wait to order my T-shirt on Amazon. Any day now right?

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Get off my lawn!

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3 minutes ago, Guard Dog said:

I got some great news. It turns out the Tampa Bay rays really won the World Series after all. All I had to do is refuse to accept that the Dodgers actually won. Clearly there were some irregularities in game six. So anyway now the Rays are the champs. I can’t wait to order my T-shirt on Amazon. Any day now right?

I wonder how you feel about Mark Esper getting fired? Seems like he basically refused to use the military against civilians, so I'd think he'd be your type of guy. 

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So how many of you folks noticed Trumps campaign manager use this:

 

Only for Biden's Digital Director to respond with:

 

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"Cuius testiculos habeas, habeas cardia et cerebellum."

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17 minutes ago, Hurlshot said:

I wonder how you feel about Mark Esper getting fired? Seems like he basically refused to use the military against civilians, so I'd think he'd be your type of guy. 

Didn’t know it happened until 10 minutes ago. Have to read up on the details. The United States government has never been shy about turning the military on civilians

Get off my lawn!

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2 hours ago, Darkpriest said:

"data scientist who wishes to remain anonymous"

lmao, think I'll rather listen to the various data scientists and analysts who do put their names behind their work, who called everything that would happen (Georgia and Wisconsin going down to the wire but with a slight Biden advantage, Pennsylvania and especially Michigan ultimately not being particularly close, Arizona being called too early, etc.) on the night of the election, aka before any of the things they expected had even the appearance of happening. There's a reason I was reasonably confident Biden would win (and where he would win) while everyone else was assuming and bemoaning Trump's victory.

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Well I have to say I am quite pleased to see the back of side of Trump on his way out the door. Whenever he gets around to walking (or is dragged) through it. That does not make me love Joe Biden in any way. He is simply a slightly less defective  replacement of a faulty cog. 

But I will say if both of the Senate seats going to a runoff in Georgia are retained by the Republicans I will sleep a lot better at night. Unified government is not a thing a wise person should wish for. At least not in this country.
 

 

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Get off my lawn!

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9 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Is it true that AZ got delisted as Biden's win and is still contested? 

Fox called it on the night of the election, and I think the AP shortly after, and I don't believe either has rescinded it, but nobody else (such as ABC or the New York Times) have called it. At this point, it looks like he'll hold it, but it was close and when they called it really just made no sense based on the number of ballots left, where they came from, and their method. Lot of mail-in ballots - and unlike other states who are experimenting with mass mail-in-ballots for the first time, Arizona has had a history of using mail-in-ballots as a primary voting method for a while, which means it was less likely to be affected by Trump's constant screaming and whinging about mail-in-ballots being a fraudulent method of voting. Thus why they were much closer in terms of party affiliation versus other states - and on that note, a number of states kept track of which parties' members were requesting and returning mail-in-ballots and making those numbers public, so it was known in advance which party mail-in-ballots would likely favor on a state-by-state basis.

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47 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Is it true that AZ got delisted as Biden's win and is still contested? 

No. And even if it were, it wouldn't change the outcome of the election.

"Art and song are creations but so are weapons and lies"

"Our worst enemies are inventions of the mind. Pleasure. Fear. When we see them for what they are, we become unstoppable."

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Achilles is right. If Trump ended up getting Arizona it wont help him. He'd need to overturn Arizona, AND Pennsylvania, OR Michigan and still get North Carolina AND Georgia. And he's not going to win Georgia.

That is why the court challenges are moot. He'd have to win almost all of them and even then that won't get him to the promised land because he's far enough behind it's unlikely there are enough "illegal" votes to toss. 

Was there voter fraud? Almost certainly. Was Joe Biden the beneficiary of it? Again almost certainly. But it is near impossible to prove in court that it altered the outcome because it just did not. The candidates down ballot likely have more cause for complaint than Trump in those cases.   

Get off my lawn!

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11 minutes ago, Achilles said:

No. And even if it were, it wouldn't change the outcome of the election.

trump is attempting to delegitimize votes in multiple states, which would force state legislatures and perhaps even Congress to decide who is the next President. each state won for biden makes it more difficult for trump to undermine the system.

is gonna be new trump lawsuits filed daily from now until december 8, or perhaps even later. 

...

there is a case in georgia, which would affect 53 ballots.

there is a case in pennsylvania, which would affect 600 ballots.

there is a case in az which would affect election day voting in maricopa.

there is a new case in michigan which would affect all o' wayne county or more than 800k votes.

most trump campaign cases have been dismissed and the remaining options do not appear to be particular strong. however, one judge in say arizona or michigan could conceivably create enough uncertainty and delay so as to provide republican legislatures in those states an excuse to step in and invalidate the election. so what happens if he convinces judges in arizona, michigan and pennsylvania to delay just long enough...

have people been watching trump these past four years? 

"he can't do that."

"it's unconstitutional."

"that would be illegal and no republican would support him if he went that far."

am gonna once again remind @Guard Dog how he accused various news outlets o' fear mongering when they warned o' the possibility trump might contest the election. well?

if you think biden winning +270 ec votes by such margins as to make recounts a non-issue is enough to settle the issue, you have not been paying attention for the past four years.

messala is beaten, but he is gone use every last option, legal and otherwise, to remain President... and when it becomes obvious the Presidency is out of reach, he is gonna set fire to everything.

"If there be time to expose through discussion the falsehood and fallacies, to avert the evil by the processes of education, the remedy to be applied is more speech, not enforced silence."Justice Louis Brandeis, Concurring, Whitney v. California, 274 U.S. 357 (1927)

"Im indifferent to almost any murder as long as it doesn't affect me or mine."--Gfted1 (September 30, 2019)

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8 minutes ago, Guard Dog said:

Achilles is right. If Trump ended up getting Arizona it wont help him. He'd need to overturn Arizona, AND Pennsylvania, OR Michigan and still get North Carolina AND Georgia. And he's not going to win Georgia.

That is why the court challenges are moot. He'd have to win almost all of them and even then that won't get him to the promised land because he's far enough behind it's unlikely there are enough "illegal" votes to toss. 

Was there voter fraud? Almost certainly. Was Joe Biden the beneficiary of it? Again almost certainly. But it is near impossible to prove in court that it altered the outcome because it just did not. The candidates down ballot likely have more cause for complaint than Trump in those cases.   

Yes and no, look at the differnces. 

Use the prior averages, extrapolate by the factor of the total increase and factor in higher drive to see their own candidate winning as a potential ratio increase of such cases. 

Then compare it to the totals of differences. 

In Georgia, you have ca 11k difference? So it's enough if 6k vvotes were misplaced and given to a wrong candidate. 

PA is what? 50k difderence? 25k misplaced and it turns the tide

 

Wisconsin is around 20k., So ca 10-11k misplaced. 

 

Considering the scale, I would not dismiss that from the realms of possibilities. 

Is it likely? That I would not be able to say, but I can certainly say that it is not impossible

 

I wonder on another thing though, what would happen, if Trump would actually win after the recounts? 

Is this even something acceptable to people, who now stand so sternly behind Biden's win, even though the election is highly contested and the process requires to have all the lawsuits and disputes investigated and resolved?

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10 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Yes and no, look at the differnces. 

Use the prior averages, extrapolate by the factor of the total increase and factor in higher drive to see their own candidate winning as a potential ratio increase of such cases. 

Then compare it to the totals of differences. 

In Georgia, you have ca 11k difference? So it's enough if 6k vvotes were misplaced and given to a wrong candidate. 

PA is what? 50k difderence? 25k misplaced and it turns the tide

 

Wisconsin is around 20k., So ca 10-11k misplaced. 

 

Considering the scale, I would not dismiss that from the realms of possibilities. 

Is it likely? That I would not be able to say, but I can certainly say that it is not impossible

 

I wonder on another thing though, what would happen, if Trump would actually win after the recounts? 

Is this even something acceptable to people, who now stand so sternly behind Biden's win, even though the election is highly contested and the process requires to have all the lawsuits and disputes investigated and resolved?

The fact that so many discrepancies were caught and reported by the ballot processing centers themselves AS A RESULT OF THEIR AUDITING PROCESS makes the above...silly

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"Art and song are creations but so are weapons and lies"

"Our worst enemies are inventions of the mind. Pleasure. Fear. When we see them for what they are, we become unstoppable."

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Number of votes that move from one party to another in recount have been max ~300 votes in past and there is no indication that this time would be different.

But same thing would happen as would had if Clinton had won after recount, winner of election would change.

But change for that happening when there needs to be multiple  over 10k vote changes is smaller than winning 10 times in row in lottery, because counting systems that states use are very reliable and changes happen usually only in ballots that have been counted by hand for some reason or another.

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1 minute ago, Achilles said:

The fact that so many discrepancies were caught and reported by the ballot processing centers themselves AS A RESULT OF THEIR AUDITING PROCESS makes the above...silly

Why? Do you claim it is impossible? 

Or is it just the potential outcome you'd not be willing to accept? 

Again, you deal in an environment of heavy 'partisian' division, and people, who are heavily invested emotionally into something, can go great lengths to see the outcome the desire. 

There is certainly a cognitive bias on each of the sides. 

One side really strongly believes that there was fraud and the election got stolen, and will exaggerate any irregurality to fit into that view. 

The other side really likes the outcome and thus believes everything is fine and will dismiss any and all information of irreguralities as insignificant or an attempt to surpress legitimate votes. 

Looking at the process, none of the extremes is likely, so now it's a matter of probabilities when it comes to the potential scale and its influence on the final outcome. 

Problem is, that most of the people on a one side of the fence will not be willing to accept the outcome that does not favor their vote. It applies to both sides. 

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