Jump to content

Politics 20/20 now with extra hindsight!


Gorth

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, the_dog_days said:

I think Biden loses both Michigan and Pennsylvania.

It'd be a heck of a thing to lose his home state

"Art and song are creations but so are weapons and lies"

"Our worst enemies are inventions of the mind. Pleasure. Fear. When we see them for what they are, we become unstoppable."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Popped in to say I still think Biden wins, but the polls were definitely off no matter what.  Biden's home state is Delaware, allegedly.  <.<  He's talked about Scranton because he wants to win the state, but he lived there a short time in his youth.  That's not a partisan thing.  Literally, his home state is considered Delaware.  It's hard to explain to people who aren't from the US.  In reality, anyone who's been in federal elected office for as long as Biden really should consider DC his home.  If Trump had won AZ, the Dems would be screaming at the sky right now.  As it is, they are sweating bullets and biting their nails.  This is *not* how they thought it would end up.  I think there's a good chance Trump can pull this out, but I think the edge still goes to Biden.  If I'm wrong, I will come here and let folks take shots at me.  If I'm right, I'll regret it.  I get Grom's response to me about gloating.  I honestly don't wish anyone any ill will.

I literally take care of sick folks for a living, and white people are not only not the majority, they aren't even a plurality of my patients.  Hispanic is the largest group and then, confounding statistics, Black is slightly second that this point.  I've held their hands, stroked their heads, fought with their doctors to get more care, and had them call me on my own time for things ranging from getting a hospital bed to directions to the clinic.  People can think I'm a heartless white racist if they want (although the feds certainly don't mind counting me as Hispanic when it suits their needs), but I'm not.  I hate these times.  I'm just trying to make it through as best I can.  It's 2130 in California.  I doubt the election will be called before tomorrow and probably not even then. When this is all over, let's continue our debate.  We can turn up the heat and even insult each other.  Fair enough, but let's hold back from trying to draw real blood.

If it had been a Biden blowout, I couldn't have said all this because it would have sounded like I was trying to get out of a bashing.  I'll take the bashing.  I will read every insult.  It will take me some time, but I will.  I might even throw some your way if Trump wins.  All fair.  After that, let's act as people of goodwill.  lol  I have a feeling I'll be mocked over this, but I don't mind that either.

"Not for the sake of much time..."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hard to say. Early results are heavily for in-person voting, which was primarily the pro-covid party. Mail-in ballots will push things the other way. Maybe we'll know by Thursday?

"It has just been discovered that research causes cancer in rats."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Trump 'wins' on the night, Biden win after counting finishes for me. Which may be an interesting aftermath, to say the least.

More or less agreeing with Zoraptor here: from where the analytics and I are sitting, the race has appeared to tilt towards Biden. I don't know how everything will work out with Trumps' plans to stay in the White House no matter the results, but with Biden's Arizona victory (although perhaps a tad bit presumptive by Fox in calling it so early), Biden only needs to get the rest of what he is heavily expected to get in order to win. He does not need PA, GA, or NC, although those three would certainly be nice and there are strong indications that he could win in each of those. I am a lot more apprehensive about getting at least 50-50 control of the Senate.

Edited by Bartimaeus

Put fascists and sociopaths on your ignore list.

Quote

Never believe that anti-Semites are completely unaware of the absurdity of their replies. They know that their remarks are frivolous, open to challenge. But they are amusing themselves, for it is their adversary who is obliged to use words responsibly, since he believes in words. They even like to play with discourse for, by giving ridiculous reasons, they discredit the seriousness of their interlocutors. They delight in acting in bad faith, since they seek not to persuade by sound argument but to intimidate and disconcert. If you press them too closely, they will abruptly fall silent, loftily indicating by some phrase that the time for argument is past.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If Trump wins Pennsylvania and Michigan, and it's trending in that direction, he's got this. There will be some frothing at the mouth pink-haired women and effeminate guys if that happens.

breen_tuna.gif.f209371d450243737d37ca9251849aff.gif

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes, if he does win Michigan, then Biden would need to win in Georgia to make up for it (note: the New York Times, which has had Georgia as one of its special ultra-analyzed states looking at votes cast vs. expected votes on a precinct by precinct level, currently has Georgia in a dead heat with Biden having a very small 0.3 lead as of 85% of counting - much too close to call). But it is not currently expected that Trump will win Michigan - the day-of votes do favor Trump, but it is expected that the mail-in votes will push it back to Biden (and the same is true with Pennsylvania, albeit closer).

(e): 0.4 expected lead for Biden with 91% counted in Georgia. It's going to be close.

Edited by Bartimaeus

Put fascists and sociopaths on your ignore list.

Quote

Never believe that anti-Semites are completely unaware of the absurdity of their replies. They know that their remarks are frivolous, open to challenge. But they are amusing themselves, for it is their adversary who is obliged to use words responsibly, since he believes in words. They even like to play with discourse for, by giving ridiculous reasons, they discredit the seriousness of their interlocutors. They delight in acting in bad faith, since they seek not to persuade by sound argument but to intimidate and disconcert. If you press them too closely, they will abruptly fall silent, loftily indicating by some phrase that the time for argument is past.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It looks like Trump is taking both North Carolina and Georgia, narrowly. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are all leaning Trump, but all of those have a bunch of mail-in votes to count, which supposedly lean Biden. I think Trump's lead in PA is too big for the mail-ins to overcome, MI will be super close, and WI will probably go to Biden. So, I guess it comes down to MI. Whoever takes the state with the ****tiest roads in America will win the election.

One thing is for sure, just like in 2016, the polls were WAY off.

Edited by Keyrock

breen_tuna.gif.f209371d450243737d37ca9251849aff.gif

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I would agree that it looks like NC is likely going to Trump (outside of a deluge of late Democrat-favoring mail-in ballots a la the Arizona senate race 2 year ago), but strongly disagree on Georgia: the top analytics guys are still (albeit very narrowly) favoring Biden there, and it's going to be really close either way it ends: very likely within 0.5 points.

Edited by Bartimaeus

Put fascists and sociopaths on your ignore list.

Quote

Never believe that anti-Semites are completely unaware of the absurdity of their replies. They know that their remarks are frivolous, open to challenge. But they are amusing themselves, for it is their adversary who is obliged to use words responsibly, since he believes in words. They even like to play with discourse for, by giving ridiculous reasons, they discredit the seriousness of their interlocutors. They delight in acting in bad faith, since they seek not to persuade by sound argument but to intimidate and disconcert. If you press them too closely, they will abruptly fall silent, loftily indicating by some phrase that the time for argument is past.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Listening to Trump speechifying again, with his ridiculous statements, I just don't understand the charisma thing.  I mean, Biden has almost no charisma as well but at least his voice, words, and speech patterns don't make me want to stab knitting needles into my ears.

Bah I'm going to bed.  Here's hoping that in the end of this close race, Biden will win - Trump for 4 more years might not be the end of the world, but Biden would at least keep my eardrums safe.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
“Things are as they are. Looking out into the universe at night, we make no comparisons between right and wrong stars, nor between well and badly arranged constellations.” – Alan Watts
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, LadyCrimson said:

Listening to Trump speechifying again, with his ridiculous statements, I just don't understand the charisma thing.  I mean, Biden has almost no charisma as well but at least his voice, words, and speech patterns don't make me want to stab knitting needles into my ears.

Bah I'm going to bed.  Here's hoping that in the end of this close race, Biden will win - Trump for 4 more years might not be the end of the world, but Biden would at least keep my eardrums safe.

it might be like rumbling drunk friend agreeing with each other

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, Biden is easy on your eardrums.  <.<  Partisan much?  Anyhow, it's ten to midnight and I think it's going to be tough this week.  All our hopes hinge on President Trump, a truly terrible candidate.  Hoong, as ridiculous as I find him, is correct, wtihout Covid Donald Trump wins.  More importantly, without his tweets, interviews, and statements, Trump also wins.  If he manages to win, however, to uuuhhii's point, there will be  reckoning.  Even if he doesn't, Dems should be scared.  I know  I know.  Dan is a fool.  What does he mean? The demographics are not kind.  The best you can see at this point is Trump loses by a much narrower margin than predicted by the media.  Either way, we've managed to crack the demographic.  Make fun of me, but this is a real problem for democrats in the future.

"Not for the sake of much time..."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'll say this about the Democratic Party. That's 2 presidential elections in a row they screwed Bernie as he was on the cusp of getting the nomination. I think he would have won the presidency both times. So, if (big IF) the Democrats lose again, when they go blaming everybody else, you and I and they will all know who's really to blame.

  • Thanks 1

breen_tuna.gif.f209371d450243737d37ca9251849aff.gif

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, LadyCrimson said:

Listening to Trump speechifying again, with his ridiculous statements, I just don't understand the charisma thing.  I mean, Biden has almost no charisma as well but at least his voice, words, and speech patterns don't make me want to stab knitting needles into my ears.

Bah I'm going to bed.  Here's hoping that in the end of this close race, Biden will win - Trump for 4 more years might not be the end of the world, but Biden would at least keep my eardrums safe.

I have never understood it either - he personifies literally everything that is the opposite of what I'd consider to be charisma. Different strokes for different folks, I know, but what the actual hell?

Put fascists and sociopaths on your ignore list.

Quote

Never believe that anti-Semites are completely unaware of the absurdity of their replies. They know that their remarks are frivolous, open to challenge. But they are amusing themselves, for it is their adversary who is obliged to use words responsibly, since he believes in words. They even like to play with discourse for, by giving ridiculous reasons, they discredit the seriousness of their interlocutors. They delight in acting in bad faith, since they seek not to persuade by sound argument but to intimidate and disconcert. If you press them too closely, they will abruptly fall silent, loftily indicating by some phrase that the time for argument is past.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Keyrock said:

I'll say this about the Democratic Party. That's 2 presidential elections in a row they screwed Bernie as he was on the cusp of getting the nomination. I think he would have won the presidency both times. So, if (big IF) the Democrats lose again, when they go blaming everybody else, you and I and they will all know who's really to blame.

Nah. I'll agree that they screwed him in a few different ways the first time, but they did not really screw him this time. They maneuvered against him, yeah, but the only reason he was ever projected to stand a chance of winning was because the field was so incredibly fractured between the moderates. If you can't win 50% of the vote in what was effectively a two man race, then that's your own electoral weakness. I guess Elizabeth Warren did stay in the race while every other moderate dropped out on the night before Super Tuesday which did sort of mildly screw him, but I really don't think it would've made much of a difference - Biden rocked him. Don't get me wrong, Bernie is 100% my guy, but he specifically campaigned on appealing to and turning out the youth vote, and they more or less completely ignored his existence. We get who we deserve, for better...for worse.

Put fascists and sociopaths on your ignore list.

Quote

Never believe that anti-Semites are completely unaware of the absurdity of their replies. They know that their remarks are frivolous, open to challenge. But they are amusing themselves, for it is their adversary who is obliged to use words responsibly, since he believes in words. They even like to play with discourse for, by giving ridiculous reasons, they discredit the seriousness of their interlocutors. They delight in acting in bad faith, since they seek not to persuade by sound argument but to intimidate and disconcert. If you press them too closely, they will abruptly fall silent, loftily indicating by some phrase that the time for argument is past.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So funny that even after the last 4 years it is STILL a very close race and Trump is not that bad off. 

Just shows to me that Murica has pretty much lost it. This garbage political drama will continue and everything keeps going down the ****ter no matter what. 

  • Like 2

"only when you no-life you can exist forever, because what does not live cannot die."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, MedicineDan said:

Yeah, Biden is easy on your eardrums.  <.<  Partisan much? 

What are you rambling about?  I said Biden also had little charisma (he also sounds like a doddering old man sometimes, albeit a sober one).  Trump is, at least in my eyes, an (extra) narcissistic buffoon who makes a rather mockery of the "top office" of this country with his posturing antics.  If he was a Democratic or Independent or Friendly Neighborhood Spaceman candidate, I wouldn't vote for him either.  I don't pick a candidate or vote simply because someone is a specific "party." 

Trump is repeatedly not someone I can even pretend to respect and that's all there is to it.  Pffft.

  • Like 2
  • Hmmm 1
“Things are as they are. Looking out into the universe at night, we make no comparisons between right and wrong stars, nor between well and badly arranged constellations.” – Alan Watts
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thoughts:

-With Arizona (a state targeted, arguably misguidedly, by the Clinton campaign in 2016) going to Biden if I were in the Trump camp I'd be pouring three fingers of whisky. Near as I can tell Biden/Harris did not spend nearly as much converting the state as they did bringing PA/MI/WI back into the fold, states Trump won in 2016 by razor-thin margins as they were (to say nothing of Georgia now, which bodes ill for Republican aspirations for Texas in 15-20 years if the GOP insists on continuing on its current track).

-As GOP-strategist-turned-Never-Trumper Rick Wilson noted, Florida and Ohio were solid red states masquerading as toss-ups that required generational candidates like Kennedy, Carter, and Obama to turn Blue (i.e. you needed +10 Democrat to even consider them in the conventional sense "lean Democrat").

-That the EC vote remains tight as it is now is still cause for alarm for progressives. For those of us whose single-issue concern for the Presidency was "Who is least likely to order the men and women at Malmstrom and Minot to turn their keys" all a Biden presidency does is buy the world four more years of time for Donald Trump to die from heart disease or has a health event that renders him a drooling invalid (and in my view the latter situation still gives him a ghost of a chance). For as horrible as the past four years have been, progressives should count themselves lucky that a nincompoop such as Trump was the best the GOP could offer in 2016.

 

On that last point it's a terrible shame. If on November 4th the US had a solid repudiation of Trump I was looking forward to posting this as my reaction to the election results:

 

 

Edited by Agiel
  • Like 1
Quote
"Turned wrong way round, the relentless unforeseen was what we schoolchildren studied as 'History,' harmless history, where everything unexpected in its own time is chronicled on the page as inevitable. The terror of the unforeseen is what the science of history hides, turning a disaster into an epic.”

 

-Philip Roth, The Plot Against America

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Agiel, you should be rightfully frightened by this election.  I'll give white suburban/white college educated voters (who are usually Republican) for minority voters.  You'd best hope that everyone returns to their prospective quarters next election. If, however, the suburbanites return to the fold and minorities don't... :wicked grin:   I know!  I know!  You're looking at the last 200 hundred years.  I'm looking at the last several thousand.  We can lose this one, especially if we keep the senate.  The Democrats can't see a crack in the minority coalition.  It is their end.

"Not for the sake of much time..."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Gorth locked this topic
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...