Bartimaeus 2,157 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 8 minutes ago, Achilles said: Interestingly, the only state that the 538 model has missed so far is Florida. Obviously, it's not over til it's over, but this take is amusing to me, considering where things stand right now Though it looks like a few states will be outside of the margin of error, such as Wisconsin. It was definitely not a great polling cycle again (not laughably terrible, but notably off), it seems like there is...something not being accounted for in measuring Republican turnout. Put fascists and sociopaths on your ignore list. Link to post Share on other sites
Malcador 7,336 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/election-2020/denver-voters-overwhelmingly-pass-ballot-measure-to-repeal-pit-bull-banĀ One bright spot. 2 Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra Link to post Share on other sites
Achilles 2,335 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, Bartimaeus said: Though it looks like a few states will be outside of the margin of error, such as Wisconsin. It was definitely not a great polling cycle again (not laughably terrible, but notably off), it seems like there is...something not being accounted for in measuring Republican turnout. Yeah, definitely not saying there aren't polling errors. But also (so far) demonstrably false to say that everyone got it wrong. "Art and song are creations but so are weapons and lies" "Our worst enemies are inventions of the mind. Pleasure. Fear. When we see them for what they are, we become unstoppable." Link to post Share on other sites
Darkpriest 739 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 11 minutes ago, Achilles said: Does it bother you that the graphs you post clearly show this isn't the case? It's almost like you took the words at face value and didn't even bother to look at the pictures. I was refering to people posting things like this Ā So if it's a matter of update issues it should also be done in a more careful way. Adjust all numbers at once.Ā Ā I wish I could have a more direct by the minute reporting, but this kind of data is not really something I would need and I made the decision to sit this election on the cash on US market. Too much unpredictability and I don't want to be at the mercy of algos going wild on various interpretation of words and one liners.Ā Link to post Share on other sites
Achilles 2,335 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 If that graphic didn't come from the state of Michigan website, then it shouldn't be trusted. "Art and song are creations but so are weapons and lies" "Our worst enemies are inventions of the mind. Pleasure. Fear. When we see them for what they are, we become unstoppable." Link to post Share on other sites
MedicineDan 243 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 14 minutes ago, Achilles said: Interestingly, the only state that the 538 model has missed so far is Florida. Obviously, it's not over til it's over, but this take is amusing to me, considering where things stand right now Hell of a state to miss, but aside from that, look at the RCP polling averages.Ā It will be amusing to me if people let Trump hate encourage them to think that the polls were actually good.Ā If people think this bodes well for Democrats... go with God, my mythic hero friend.Ā I'm telling you, Democrats are not happy about this race. They may yet win, but shoving ~100 million bucks into a senate race that the polling average said was a tossup only to lose by double digits?Ā Naw, the people in the coalition who dumped Trump will return after it's not a popularity contest.Ā The fact that Republicans could make inroads into minority populations and get them to see that they have common ground with us is simply brilliant. "Not for the sake of much time..." Link to post Share on other sites
Raithe 20,708 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 For a slight break from the vote counting... https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/10/health-officials-rated-celebrities-on-trump-loyalty-while-planning-ad-campaign/? Democratic House lawmakers have had no luck getting the Department of Health and Human Services to hand over information on its $250 million advertising campaign to ādefeat despair and inspire hopeā amid the devastating coronavirus pandemic. But, the lawmakers have been able to collect documents from the federal contractors working on the campaignāand the details in those documents are āextremely troubling,ā they say. In a scathing letter to HHS Secretary Alex Azar, the lawmakers revealed some of those details, which show blatant political partisanship. For instance, A-list celebrities considered for pandemic-related public service announcements were individually rated based on their loyalty to Trump and other political leanings. Of the 274 celebrities reviewed, only 10 made the cut. The rest were rejected, including Jack Black, who was dubbed a āclassic Hollywood liberalā and Judd Apatow, who, the documents say, ābelieves Trump does not have the intellectual capacity to run as President.ā The documents also show attempts by career staff at the Food and Drug Administration to quash those āinappropriate efforts.ā "Cuius testiculos habeas, habeas cardia et cerebellum." Link to post Share on other sites
Maedhros 338 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 "It could well be that at 10 oāclock on election night, Trump is winning in Michigan, heās winning in Pennsylvania, heās winning in Wisconsin, and he gets on the television and he says, āThank you, Americans, for reelecting me. Itās all over. Have a good day.ā But then, the next day, and the day following, all of those mail-in ballots start getting counted, and it turns out that Biden has won those states, at which point Trump says, āSee? I told you the whole thing was fraudulent. I told you those mail-in ballots were crooked. And weāre not going to leave office.ā So that is a worry that I and a lot of people have." Link to post Share on other sites
Achilles 2,335 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, MedicineDan said: Hell of a state to miss, but aside from that, look at the RCP polling averages. It is, but there's a reason I look at 538 and not RCP 1 "Art and song are creations but so are weapons and lies" "Our worst enemies are inventions of the mind. Pleasure. Fear. When we see them for what they are, we become unstoppable." Link to post Share on other sites
Achilles 2,335 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Maedhros said: "It could well be that at 10 oāclock on election night, Trump is winning in Michigan, heās winning in Pennsylvania, heās winning in Wisconsin, and he gets on the television and he says, āThank you, Americans, for reelecting me. Itās all over. Have a good day.ā But then, the next day, and the day following, all of those mail-in ballots start getting counted, and it turns out that Biden has won those states, at which point Trump says, āSee? I told you the whole thing was fraudulent. I told you those mail-in ballots were crooked. And weāre not going to leave office.ā So that is a worry that I and a lot of people have." Yeah, again this is called blue shift and people have been warning about it (and trump's likely reaction to it) for months "Art and song are creations but so are weapons and lies" "Our worst enemies are inventions of the mind. Pleasure. Fear. When we see them for what they are, we become unstoppable." Link to post Share on other sites
Elerond 2,480 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Clearly they found 300k newĀ ballotsĀ in Arizona to prevent it flipping to blueĀ 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Darkpriest 739 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Elerond said: Clearly they found 300k newĀ ballotsĀ in Arizona to prevent it flipping to blueĀ Hahaha, oh this is going to be a ride.Ā So now dems will be calling foul play as well?Ā Edited November 4, 2020 by Darkpriest 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Hurlshot 8,161 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 50 minutes ago, Darkpriest said: Ā This might be the ugliest election ever.Ā https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1876_United_States_presidential_election Rutherford B. Hayes has something to say about that. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Darkpriest 739 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Bill Stepien Despite ridiculous public polling used as a voter suppression tactic, Wisconsin has been a razor thin race as we always knew that it would be. There have been reports of irregularities in several Wisconsin counties which raise serious doubts about the validity of the results.Ā The President is well within the threshold to request a recount and we will immediately do so." Ā https://www.theepochtimes.com/michigan-county-to-review-ballots-following-report-of-skewed-results_3565412.html Ā This will be a lot of pull and push on both sides. Very soon i guess thing s will escalate.Ā Link to post Share on other sites
Darkpriest 739 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 (edited) Perhaps someone can quickly provide some info, but is there some historical corellation between results to the house and senate with how people vote for the president?Ā I wonder, because it seems republicans are gaining more house presence and are not losing the senate majority. I wonder if this could somehow be tied to who is more probable to win presidential election.Ā Edited November 4, 2020 by Darkpriest Link to post Share on other sites
Guard Dog 9,258 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, Darkpriest said: Perhaps someone can quickly provide some info, but is there some historical corellation between results to the house and senate with how people vote for the president?Ā I wonder, because it seems republicans are gaining more house presence and are not losing the senate majority. I wonder if this could somehow be tied to who is more probable to win presidential election.Ā Not that Iāve ever heard of. The political party that wins the presidential race tends to do better down ballot but that is not a hard or fast rule. There are plenty of instances where it has gone the other way. One thing to remember, congressional races are less about parties in about individual. House of representatives members in particular Are often times well known to their constituents. Party affiliation matters a lot less.Are often times well known to their constituents. Party affiliation matters a lot less. 1 Get off my lawn! Link to post Share on other sites
Darkpriest 739 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 36 minutes ago, Hurlshot said: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1876_United_States_presidential_election Rutherford B. Hayes has something to say about that. Weeeeelll it's not finished yet 1 Link to post Share on other sites
ComradeMaster 288 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Ā "Chinaās success on the world stage benefits the Chinese people. Americaās success on the world stage comes at the expense of the American people."Ā -Caitlin Johnstone Link to post Share on other sites
Bartimaeus 2,157 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 It's really weird how one party whose leader specifically told everyone not to use mail-in ballots doesn't have as many mail-in ballots as the leader of the party who told everyone to use mail-in ballots. Can science really explain this phenomenon? 3 1 Put fascists and sociopaths on your ignore list. Link to post Share on other sites
Achilles 2,335 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, Bartimaeus said: It's really weird how one party whose leader specifically told everyone not to use mail-in ballots doesn't have as many mail-in ballots as the leader of the party who told everyone to use mail-in ballots. Can science really explain this phenomenon? Too tough for science. Need twitter sleuths for this one. 1 3 "Art and song are creations but so are weapons and lies" "Our worst enemies are inventions of the mind. Pleasure. Fear. When we see them for what they are, we become unstoppable." Link to post Share on other sites
Darkpriest 739 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Link to post Share on other sites
Malcador 7,336 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Ā Strange times 1 Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra Link to post Share on other sites
KaineParker 6,168 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 14 minutes ago, Bartimaeus said: It's really weird how one party whose leader specifically told everyone not to use mail-in ballots doesn't have as many mail-in ballots as the leader of the party who told everyone to use mail-in ballots. Can science really explain this phenomenon? Old people. "I am the expert, asshat." - Hurlshot "I'm fine with humanity being wiped out" - majestic "I won'tĀ say what just in case KaineParker is reading" - Bartimaeus "Oh no! Is there super secret ending as well? I donāt care." - Wormerine Link to post Share on other sites
InsaneCommander 2,791 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 24 minutes ago, Bartimaeus said: It's really weird how one party whose leader specifically told everyone not to use mail-in ballots doesn't have as many mail-in ballots as the leader of the party who told everyone to use mail-in ballots. Can science really explain this phenomenon? 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Malcador 7,336 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 8 minutes ago, KaineParker said: Old people. But the world left them behind long ago. We are the future! Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra Link to post Share on other sites
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