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Politics 20/20 now with extra hindsight!


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4 minutes ago, Skarpen said:

So 80% to 20% dubious at best. This is Belarus level of fraud.

Doesn't seem that sketchy, if Democrats preferred to vote in that manner more than Republicans.

Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra

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11 minutes ago, Malcador said:

In Milwaukee, they counted ~170k absentee of which ~138k for Biden.

Not sure, what is the procedure and what absentee is, but it could happen if those ballots were from some large dem stronghold, and given that some of the counts favored even near 70% to 30%, i can imagine this to be possible. 

You can't really easily explain 100% to 0% split though of a similar amount of votes. 

 

I mean, not even a single vote for any other option? 

Even in DC it was around 90% but not a 100%

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1 minute ago, Darkpriest said:

Not sure, what is the procedure and what absentee is, but it could happen if those ballots were from some large dem stronghold, and given that some of the counts favored even near 70% to 30%, i can imagine this to be possible. 

You can't really easily explain 100% to 0% split though of a similar amount of votes. 

I think that was the confusion, well or lying by some people saying it was just 138k for Biden, when it was part of a larger batch.

Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra

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5 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Not sure, what is the procedure and what absentee is, but it could happen if those ballots were from some large dem stronghold, and given that some of the counts favored even near 70% to 30%, i can imagine this to be possible. 

You can't really easily explain 100% to 0% split though of a similar amount of votes. 

 

I mean, not even a single vote for any other option? 

Even in DC it was around 90% but not a 100%

70% of Milwaukee's 450k votes are cast for Biden

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12 minutes ago, Malcador said:

I think that was the confusion, well or lying by some people saying it was just 138k for Biden, when it was part of a larger batch.

https://twitter.com/MichaelCoudrey/status/1324018512055083008?s=20

EDIT: it seems the Tweet got removed, so i'll just paste tje text from what i see cached

 

BREAKING: Wisconsin has more votes than people who are registered to vote. Total number of registered voters: 3,129,000 Total number of votes cast: 3,239,920

 

Just saying, that there is probably going to be a lot of calls for recounts etc. If you add auch numbers at such odd ratios and with some data that can lead to confusion, this is just lifting a lid to pandors box, and you'd rather keep it closed. 

 

Edited by Darkpriest
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Biden is going to end up with more popular votes than Obama received in 2008. That's a big surprise. 

Trump has more popular votes than Obama received in 2012. Another surprise.  

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32 minutes ago, Guard Dog said:

Yes. Unless you can think of another president who resigned and left town with a pardon from his replacement

I can't, but I can't think of another president who refused to concede an election either.

"Art and song are creations but so are weapons and lies"

"Our worst enemies are inventions of the mind. Pleasure. Fear. When we see them for what they are, we become unstoppable."

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2 minutes ago, Hurlshot said:

It's a good thing we have all of these twitter detectives to sniff out massive voter fraud conspiracies in this country. What would we do without them? :wowey:

Wouldn't you be surprised if AZ suddenly got turned to Trump with an appearance of such a number of votes going 100% to him? 

 

The point I'm trying to make is, that if you have changes with large statistical deviations from the average distribution, you better be very transparent and have solid proofs and audit trail or things will be contested hard. 

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4 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

https://twitter.com/MichaelCoudrey/status/1324018512055083008?s=20

 

 

Just saying, that there is probably going to be a lot of calls for recounts etc. If you add auch numbers at such odd ratios and with some data that can lead to confusion, this is just lifting a lid to pandors box, and you'd rather keep it closed. 

 

Who is Edward Dowd and what is his role in Wisconsin ballot counting?

"Art and song are creations but so are weapons and lies"

"Our worst enemies are inventions of the mind. Pleasure. Fear. When we see them for what they are, we become unstoppable."

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1 minute ago, Darkpriest said:

Wouldn't you be surprised if AZ suddenly got turned to Trump with an appearance of such a number of votes going 100% to him? 

This is why the AP doesn't call states until they are certain there aren't any viable paths for the other candidate. In other word, not an apples-to-apples comparison.

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"Art and song are creations but so are weapons and lies"

"Our worst enemies are inventions of the mind. Pleasure. Fear. When we see them for what they are, we become unstoppable."

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16 minutes ago, Hurlshot said:

Biden is going to end up with more popular votes than Obama received in 2008. That's a big surprise. 

Trump has more popular votes than Obama received in 2012. Another surprise.  

People have been saying that there wasn't a "blue wave", but from what I can see and from what's likely to be the end total number of votes, there has actually been a huge one, larger than that of 2008. However, what's been unexpected is that there has also been a large red wave to counteract it as well (especially focused in key swing states). Not enough of one to win the presidency, but certainly to make it really freaking close in the electoral college.

Wisconsin's Secretary of State has said they do not believe there are any more votes left to count. Even if there were errors (likely), past recounts have suggested that they'll likely change the results by maybe a few hundred, possibly as much as a thousand...not ten thousand-plus. Feeling pretty comfortable here in the presidential election. Still waiting on Maine and Georgia to truly call it for the Senate - I'd be very happy with a 50-50 split with a Democratic president. I do not want to have to see Mitch McConnell's despicable face for the next two years, and a 50-50 split would give them the ability to pass some of the most popular stuff, but not much more. ...But I think 49-51 looks more realistic at this point.

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30 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Doesn't seem that sketchy, if Democrats preferred to vote in that manner more than Republicans.

4:1 ratio? To quote one of the candidates: C'mon man.

21 minutes ago, Elerond said:

70% of Milwaukee's 450k votes are cast for Biden

belarus-president-alexander-lukashenko-a

Edited by Skarpen

166215__front.jpg.45518d58bdab611f0e3a026d3b8c6489.jpg

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16 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Wouldn't you be surprised if AZ suddenly got turned to Trump with an appearance of such a number of votes going 100% to him? 

Considering that Clinton got similar numbers in Milwaukee in 2016, when Trump surprisingly won Wisconsin, so it should be more suspicions if more popular democratic candidate didn't get there same result 

Some reason nobody seems to be suspicious towards those counties which Trump won with 70-80% of the vote 😋

Edited by Elerond
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Good grief and here I was anticipating a Trump re-election and then the left and disenfranchised voters could rally behind a 3rd party in 2024.

Nope, things just aren't that simple, are they?  This is going to be litigated for months with mass protests and all around ugliness.

"China’s success on the world stage benefits the Chinese people. America’s success on the world stage comes at the expense of the American people." 

-Caitlin Johnstone

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9 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

That guy is one of fund managers, just pointing some math related issues

 

 

"Art and song are creations but so are weapons and lies"

"Our worst enemies are inventions of the mind. Pleasure. Fear. When we see them for what they are, we become unstoppable."

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Even if Biden wins, I was wrong.  I thought the polls were improved this time.  The polling industry is a shambles.  On the other hand, I said a while back I thought the Republicans would keep the senate, and the polls on the senate side were absolute rubbish.  As bad as the state to state and even the national vote showed the failing of the polling institutions in calling the presidential race, the senate races were simply... there are no words.  Lindsey Graham?  I'm telling you, Democrats should be terrified of the results of this election, whether or not Biden wins.  Theoretically, the Dems could still win the senate, but it turns out the pundits are wearing no clothes.  The worst thing is that they threw everything at us this election and the best they'll likely get is the presidency with a Republican Senate and a House that has a smaller Democrat majority.  ...And Republicans might put forth a good candidate next time and bring home some folks who hated Trump just because of how he tweets and talks.  heh Children.

"Not for the sake of much time..."

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Just now, MedicineDan said:

Even if Biden wins, I was wrong.  I thought the polls were improved this time.  The polling industry is a shambles.  On the other hand, I said a while back I thought the Republicans would keep the senate, and the polls on the senate side were absolute rubbish.  As bad as the state to state and even the national vote showed the failing of the polling institutions in calling the presidential race, the senate races were simply... there are no words.  Lindsey Graham?  I'm telling you, Democrats should be terrified of the results of this election, whether or not Biden wins.  Theoretically, the Dems could still win the senate, but it turns out the pundits are wearing no clothes.  The worst thing is that they threw everything at us this election and the best they'll likely get is the presidency with a Republican Senate and a House that has a smaller Democrat majority.  ...And Republicans might put forth a good candidate next time and bring home some folks who hated Trump just because of how he tweets and talks.  heh Children.

Interestingly, the only state that the 538 model has missed so far is Florida. Obviously, it's not over til it's over, but this take is amusing to me, considering where things stand right now

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"Our worst enemies are inventions of the mind. Pleasure. Fear. When we see them for what they are, we become unstoppable."

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5 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

This is going to ne a really wild election... 

 

https://twitter.com/mschlapp/status/1324031623785029634?s=20

 

 

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Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra

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1 minute ago, Elerond said:

Considering that Clinton got similar numbers in Milwaukee in 2016, when Trump surprisingly won Wisconsin, so it should be more suspicions if more popular democratic candidate didn't get there same result 

I'm not talking about Milwaukee, that does not surprise me and the ratio for mail ins can be in realms of possibility. What is more odd is the sudden large batches of votes 100% towards Biden in the more contested areas like wisconain and michigan at around 4-5AM. This is hard to explain. Impossible? No. Improbable? Yes.  And this is what will lead to contests etc. 

Arizona case with invalidation of votes, can be another case, etc.

 

This election is emotionally loaded and is a mess largely due to the scope of the remote voting. 

This might be the ugliest election ever. 

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9 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

I'm not talking about Milwaukee, that does not surprise me and the ratio for mail ins can be in realms of possibility. What is more odd is the sudden large batches of votes 100% towards Biden in the more contested areas like wisconain and michigan at around 4-5AM. This is hard to explain. Impossible? No. Improbable? Yes.  And this is what will lead to contests etc. 

Arizona case with invalidation of votes, can be another case, etc.

 

This election is emotionally loaded and is a mess largely due to the scope of the remote voting. 

This might be the ugliest election ever. 

Does it bother you that the graphs you post clearly show this isn't the case? It's almost like you took the words at face value and didn't even bother to look at the pictures.

image.png.e86aa4dcf1900a529ca5f49aa22ea782.pngimage.png.f50925fc91b717ad4447ace182bf7364.png

 

Edited by Achilles
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"Art and song are creations but so are weapons and lies"

"Our worst enemies are inventions of the mind. Pleasure. Fear. When we see them for what they are, we become unstoppable."

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4 minutes ago, Achilles said:

Interestingly, the only state that the 538 model has missed so far is Florida. Obviously, it's not over til it's over, but this take is amusing to me, considering where things stand right now

That was also the 10% Trump model and it pretty much came down to what weather there was in Michigan.
I only wish I could be this wrong and still employable. 

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1 minute ago, Darkpriest said:

I'm not talking about Milwaukee, that does not surprise me and the ratio for mail ins can be in realms of possibility. What is more odd is the sudden large batches of votes 100% towards Biden in the more contested areas like wisconain and michigan at around 4-5AM. This is hard to explain. Impossible? No. Improbable? Yes.  And this is what will lead to contests etc. 

Arizona case with invalidation of votes, can be another case, etc.

 

This election is emotionally loaded and is a mess largely due to the scope of the remote voting. 

This might be the ugliest election ever. 

it should not be surprise considering that Milwaukee is largest county in Wisconsin, there were ~2 million absentee ballots cast in Wisconsin, democrats campaigned people to vote early, where republicans campaigned against it and got court order to prevent counting absentee votes before today's votes were counted in Wisconsin. But for some reason those ~2 million absentee votes now come as surprise to people and republicans  😏

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