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Coronavirus: Triple Edition


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48 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Those are not acceptable or even remotely effective odds.....even if they turn out to be true  with the v1.0 vaccines

The good news this is a unique virus, albeit similar to others ,  and we cannot prognosticate with any real  accuracy how effective the vaccine will be or how more effective V.xxxx will be until its released and we see the real outcome 

So Im much more optimistic than  a 50 %  efficacy 

 

IF virtual everybody took the vaccine, 50-60% efficacy would be fantastic even if it sounds uninspired.

Dr. Anthony Fauci says chance of coronavirus vaccine being highly effective is 'not great'

current basement number is described as 50% but obviously that kinda number is more for public benefit than real world. 

Scientists are hoping for a coronavirus vaccine that is at least 75% effective, but 50% or 60% effective would be acceptable, too, Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said during a Q&A with the Brown University School of Public Health. "The chances of it being 98% effective is not great, which means you must never abandon the public health approach."

"You've got to think of the vaccine as a tool to be able to get the pandemic to no longer be a pandemic, but to be something that's well controlled," he said. 

The Food and Drug Administration has said it would authorize a coronavirus vaccine so long as it is safe and at least 50% effective. Dr. Stephen Hahn, the FDA's commissioner, said last month that the vaccine or vaccines that end up getting authorized will prove to be more than 50% effective, but it's possible the U.S. could end up with a vaccine that, on average, reduces a person's risk of a Covid-19 infection by just 50%.

"We really felt strongly that that had to be the floor," Hahn said on July 30, adding that it's "been batted around among medical groups."

HA! Good Fun!

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"If there be time to expose through discussion the falsehood and fallacies, to avert the evil by the processes of education, the remedy to be applied is more speech, not enforced silence."Justice Louis Brandeis, Concurring, Whitney v. California, 274 U.S. 357 (1927)

"Im indifferent to almost any murder as long as it doesn't affect me or mine."--Gfted1 (September 30, 2019)

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28 minutes ago, Gromnir said:

IF virtual everybody took the vaccine, 50-60% efficacy would be fantastic even if it sounds uninspired.

Dr. Anthony Fauci says chance of coronavirus vaccine being highly effective is 'not great'

current basement number is described as 50% but obviously that kinda number is more for public benefit than real world. 

Scientists are hoping for a coronavirus vaccine that is at least 75% effective, but 50% or 60% effective would be acceptable, too, Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said during a Q&A with the Brown University School of Public Health. "The chances of it being 98% effective is not great, which means you must never abandon the public health approach."

"You've got to think of the vaccine as a tool to be able to get the pandemic to no longer be a pandemic, but to be something that's well controlled," he said. 

The Food and Drug Administration has said it would authorize a coronavirus vaccine so long as it is safe and at least 50% effective. Dr. Stephen Hahn, the FDA's commissioner, said last month that the vaccine or vaccines that end up getting authorized will prove to be more than 50% effective, but it's possible the U.S. could end up with a vaccine that, on average, reduces a person's risk of a Covid-19 infection by just 50%.

"We really felt strongly that that had to be the floor," Hahn said on July 30, adding that it's "been batted around among medical groups."

HA! Good Fun!

I will only  be happy with at least a 70-75%   efficacy, the spread risk and its continuing, negative impact on our lives is to great with much less than that number 

People dont want to go back to work or live like they use to primarily  due to real fears and some unnecessary concerns, but its occurring  on levels unseen and unprecedented in the history of mankind or rather the way the worlds economies work.....the negative impact to the prolonged, global economic shutdown cannot be underestimated 

Edited by BruceVC
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"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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4 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

I will only  be happy with at least a 70-75%   efficacy, the spread risk and its continuing, negative impact on our lives is to great with much less than that number 

People dont want to go back to work or live like they use due primarily to real fears and some unnecessary concerns, but its occurring  on levels unseen and unprecedented in the history of mankind or rather the way the worlds economies work.....the negative impact to the prolonged, global economic shutdown cannot be underestimated 

isn't so much 'bout bruce satisfaction as it is 'bout convincing people to take the vaccine. again, the vaccine is not anticipated to be a guarantee o' individual safety. much like masks and social distancing, the vaccine, with wide enough use, will "starve" covid-19 to the point where people may go back to something approximating pre 2020 life. the thing is, if people do not understand the benefits o' the vaccine or are too stubborn to listen to health experts, far too many people will fogoe taking the vaccine for it to be effective in halting the pandemic.

is so utter disappointing that as efficacy o' the vaccine drops, willingness to take the vaccine similar dips. reality is that as the vaccine's individual efficacy drops, is actual more incumbent 'pon people to take it when it is available. again, much like masks, take the vaccine, particular if you are younger or healthy, will go a long way towards saving some rando person whose name you will never learn, a person three or four degrees of separation from you who becomes infected because you didn't take the vaccine. 

as were made clear with vol, am not advocating mandatory vaccinations (though private companies and possibly even schools may indeed decide that their services will be off limits to those who do not take.) however, once the government refuses to make behaviour mandatory, that means the responsibility to do the right thing is 'pon individuals. you can public burn a quran and post youtube video o' such. right to is not same as wise to. similar, refusal to take a safe and 50% effective vaccine is arguable irresponsible... and am gonna suggest the argument is strong.

HA! Good Fun!

"If there be time to expose through discussion the falsehood and fallacies, to avert the evil by the processes of education, the remedy to be applied is more speech, not enforced silence."Justice Louis Brandeis, Concurring, Whitney v. California, 274 U.S. 357 (1927)

"Im indifferent to almost any murder as long as it doesn't affect me or mine."--Gfted1 (September 30, 2019)

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Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra

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2 hours ago, Malcador said:

Good news, anything and any country that can help us globally acquire an effective ( 70-75 % )vaccine I applaud and support

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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9 hours ago, HoonDing said:

"Russian vaccine had good results "

 

better dead than red

Yes this applies to ideological views but  not things like Russian  vaccines, Russian PC games/software products , Russian strippers, Russian tourism ...all of that is fine 

What you must always reject is Communism\Socialism and its attempts to weaken and destroy our societies 

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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15 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Good news, anything and any country that can help us globally acquire an effective ( 70-75 % )vaccine I applaud and support

Let's see if politics will play into this. My bet is that this vaccine if proven succesful will be shunned by many because the "wrong country" made it.

4 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Yes this applies to ideological views but  not things like Russian  vaccines, Russian PC games/software products , Russian strippers, Russian tourism ...all of that is fine 

What you must always reject is Communism\Socialism and its attempts to weaken and destroy our societies 

Did you seriously just slipped Russian strippers in the list?

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Today South Africa is releasing there second quarter  economic data, not third quarter as we are 3 months behind

Before the virus we had been downgraded and we were in a recession and then the virus happened and then we all experienced the economic lockdown which made things economically even worse ....we saved lives with the economic lockdown but destroyed livelihoods.

Its going to be a bloodbath in SA with our results and sadly I predict the worst economic data in living memory  

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/south-african-economy-contracts-51-q-q-in-q2-2020-09-08

The SA economy has shrunk by 51 % in the second quarter. Its unequivocally, absolutely terrible data but not as bad as I thought....not that it makes a difference because its going to take us years to recover 

 

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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Vaccine Makers Plan Public Stance to Counter Pressure on FDA

How many people had the "Drug Makers push FDA for more caution & regulation" headline on their 2020 bingo card?

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"Turned wrong way round, the relentless unforeseen was what we schoolchildren studied as 'History,' harmless history, where everything unexpected in its own time is chronicled on the page as inevitable. The terror of the unforeseen is what the science of history hides, turning a disaster into an epic.”

 

-Philip Roth, The Plot Against America

 

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On 9/5/2020 at 1:23 AM, BruceVC said:

What you must always reject is Communism\Socialism and its attempts to weaken and destroy our societies 

You're a banker, right ?

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Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra

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5 hours ago, Agiel said:

Vaccine Makers Plan Public Stance to Counter Pressure on FDA

How many people had the "Drug Makers push FDA for more caution & regulation" headline on their 2020 bingo card?

I'll say this much, in Sweden there's a public fund for anyone that gets damages from a vaccine, but even so I'm not to keen on taking a vaccine with such a short development cycle and quite possibly testing cycle.

When the H1N1 "Swine flu" hit and people were vaccinated left and right, Sweden and Finland had a bunch of people get hit very bad from the Pandemrix flu shot. I have two friends that has had their lives ruined and didn't get any proper reimbursement for years because it had to be scientifically proven that the shot was behind it. (Not really against that part, it is needed)

Civilization, in fact, grows more and more maudlin and hysterical; especially under democracy it tends to degenerate into a mere combat of crazes; the whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, most of them imaginary. - H.L. Mencken

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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/08/oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-hold-suspected-adverse-reaction/

 

A very concerning development around the vaccine trails that are globally ongoing, the Oxford trial has been temporarily suspended due to a bad reaction on  a volunteer

I suppose this is to be expected considering the number of ongoing trails  but it does raise the question and reality " how many of these trials are going to fail and or have a negative outcome " ?

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Gfted1 said:

:yes:

Well many people have raised concerns with V1.0, you made me realize this is a legitimate concern ...the whole " guinea pig "  analogy.

It doesnt matter if its all 100 %  true or exaggerated , its the fact that the view exists that we need to realize is legitimate 

These vaccines cannot be rushed and definitely shouldn't be politicized 

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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Link contains audio recordings of Trump saying that he knew it was airborne, that he knew that it could actually be deadly for even young people, that it was much more deadly than the flu, and that he was deliberately "playing it down" in public, etc. all back in February and March. I don't know what possessed him to give this candid interview to Bob Woodward of all people, but I don't think it was a good idea...for him, that is.

Edited by Bartimaeus

Put fascists and sociopaths on your ignore list.

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Never believe that anti-Semites are completely unaware of the absurdity of their replies. They know that their remarks are frivolous, open to challenge. But they are amusing themselves, for it is their adversary who is obliged to use words responsibly, since he believes in words. They even like to play with discourse for, by giving ridiculous reasons, they discredit the seriousness of their interlocutors. They delight in acting in bad faith, since they seek not to persuade by sound argument but to intimidate and disconcert. If you press them too closely, they will abruptly fall silent, loftily indicating by some phrase that the time for argument is past.

 

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50 minutes ago, Bartimaeus said:
I don't know what possessed him to give this candid interview to Bob Woodward of all people, but I don't think it was a good idea...for him, that is.

 

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7 hours ago, Bartimaeus said:
he knew that it could actually be deadly for even young people

What Trump "knows" at any given point is always better taken with a grain of salt. I just wish people were more consistent about it.

CDC, as of 9/5/2020, lists a grand total of 377 dead aged 0-24 which represents about 1% of total dead from all causes in that age bracket, with 90%+ of fatalities involving rona being people over 55. So yeah, technically deadly for young people (as in "someone died of it ever") but not really remarkable in a public health discussion context.

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- When he is best, he is a little worse than a man, and when he is worst, he is little better than a beast.

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2 hours ago, 213374U said:

What Trump "knows" at any given point is always better taken with a grain of salt. I just wish people were more consistent about it.

CDC, as of 9/5/2020, lists a grand total of 377 dead aged 0-24 which represents about 1% of total dead from all causes in that age bracket, with 90%+ of fatalities involving rona being people over 55. So yeah, technically deadly for young people (as in "someone died of it ever") but not really remarkable in a public health discussion context.

I agree and also there have been several countries that sadly suffered a terrible price initially due to  none of us understanding the real nature of the virus spread and certain things about the virus that we now know like asymptomatic carriers , the deadly risk that medical staff face with being exposed to multiple sick people without PPE , the fact the virus molecules float in the air and thats why  confined spaces like clubs and bars become virus spread breeding grounds and also how younger people can get the virus  but the mortality is very low and how most young people are asymptomatic  

This understanding of the virus we now have was gained at a cost to many  countries like Italy, Spain and parts of the USA but particularly NY. One day when  the virus spread has been addressed with the vaccine  this will be properly discussed and the sacrifice these places made needs to be recognized. And of course many other countries also have suffered  and there contribution  also matters like China and SK.  But what happened around the initial virus impact in Italy, Spain and NY was the first time international news networks had complete and unrestricted access to the reality of the virus and the rest of the world got to see it ......and it was huge shock to most of us 

I will never forget the haunting and evocative images of the initial deaths of medical staff in these countries, the hospitals overflowing and people literally dying in the corridors and this famous video in Spain of people paying tribute to medical staff going to work in a time where the virus had killed and was killing medical  staff due to lack of global understanding in correct PPE 

Anyway in summary I just want to say I wish some  people and some media houses  in the USA would stop being surprised with Trumps lack of knowledge around the virus or constantly focusing and being " shocked "  on what he says about the virus when the scientific data is globally available around certain things we should already know 

Edited by BruceVC

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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another in the file o' callous d-bags who do not care 'bout the 3-4 degrees o' separation 'tween infected (but otherwise healthy) to the eventual and predictable covid riddled corpses. 

WE ALL HAVE COVID, LET'S PARTY!!!

HA! Good Fun!

 

"If there be time to expose through discussion the falsehood and fallacies, to avert the evil by the processes of education, the remedy to be applied is more speech, not enforced silence."Justice Louis Brandeis, Concurring, Whitney v. California, 274 U.S. 357 (1927)

"Im indifferent to almost any murder as long as it doesn't affect me or mine."--Gfted1 (September 30, 2019)

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