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Finally some sales evidence


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#441
AwesomeOcelot

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How many people, including the originator, was presenting the 110K as a lower bound in the forum that originated from, in these forums, or the numerous upvoted news articles on the subject? The way gross revenue was being calculated was wrong, it wasn't just that the estimates of ASP was wrong.

I've already stated it didn't meet Obsidian's expectations on this page, although their expectations were probably 500K-1m.

I haven't played the DLC yet, but I don't see it as much less than what PoE got. Also Deadfire needed a lot less patching and content, it's a bigger more polished game.
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#442
Zoraptor

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...top 100 is a fairly low bar...

That's a relative statement, and we're talking about the the 110K figure people got when they tried determine Deadfire sales through fig investor dividends incorrectly.

 

110k is a perfectly valid lower bound, and it has almost no relation to whether or not a game is in steam top 100. Just because a game made it into the top 100 does not contradict fig estimates

 

No, it was 100% incorrectly calculated. To be specific about why it was wrong, the redditor who made the initial estimate did not read the Fig investor agreement and neither did any of the people (journos included, unsurprisingly) who quoted him. The correct minimum (using the same set of assumptions) is just under 160k- the figure they used was assumed to be inclusive of distributor cut when per the agreement all figures are after distributor cut. He'd removed the distributor cut a second time and the true figure was 10/7 higher than he'd calculated.

 

And on a slightly unrelated tack, Bronze award on Steam is top 100 sales: 12x Pt, 12x Au, 16x Ag, 59 x CuSn = 99 titles, which included Deadfire.


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#443
thelee

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...top 100 is a fairly low bar...

That's a relative statement, and we're talking about the the 110K figure people got when they tried determine Deadfire sales through fig investor dividends incorrectly.

 

110k is a perfectly valid lower bound, and it has almost no relation to whether or not a game is in steam top 100. Just because a game made it into the top 100 does not contradict fig estimates

 

No, it was 100% incorrectly calculated. To be specific about why it was wrong, the redditor who made the initial estimate did not read the Fig investor agreement and neither did any of the people (journos included, unsurprisingly) who quoted him. The correct minimum (using the same set of assumptions) is just under 160k- the figure they used was assumed to be inclusive of distributor cut when per the agreement all figures are after distributor cut. He'd removed the distributor cut a second time and the true figure was 10/7 higher than he'd calculated.

 

 

Ah, I see what you're saying, and you're right. I looked at SEC filings before and looking at them again they do have typos where they write "gross reciepts" and "gross sales revenue" interchangably, but for the actual part that matters (the actual dividend share formula) they are definitely clear on it being "gross receipts" (i.e. net of distributor's cut).

 

Side note: "glad" to see we live in an era where a lot of mid-tier and lower journalism is just resharing info from social media without fact checking.


Edited by thelee, 10 January 2019 - 08:40 AM.

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#444
protopersona

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Side note: "glad" to see we live in an era where a lot of mid-tier and lower journalism is just resharing info from social media without fact checking.

 

Hell, real journalists from actual journalistic publications are guilty of that now. It's yellow journalism 2.0 since the subscription model has been screwed over thanks to the advent of the "free" internet.


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#445
xzar_monty

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Side note: "glad" to see we live in an era where a lot of mid-tier and lower journalism is just resharing info from social media without fact checking.

 

Hell, real journalists from actual journalistic publications are guilty of that now. It's yellow journalism 2.0 since the subscription model has been screwed over thanks to the advent of the "free" internet.

 

 

The internet has already destroyed the music industry. The publishing industry is in dire straits because of the internet. Journalism is in a severe crisis because of the internet. That where we're at.


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#446
Zoraptor

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Ah, I see what you're saying, and you're right. I looked at SEC filings before and looking at them again they do have typos where they write "gross reciepts" and "gross sales revenue" interchangably, but for the actual part that matters (the actual dividend share formula) they are definitely clear on it being "gross receipts" (i.e. net of distributor's cut).

 

 

The inconsistent wording is definitely confusing and I'm surprised it's there in a legal filing. I'd have preferred them to use nett for receipts after cut and gross for before cut but I'm not an accountant.

 

I don't have much problem with the guy who made the initial calculation being mistaken given most people are familiar with movie or game grosses that include the vendor fees and will thus automatically think that's the case when seeing figures. Journos definitely should have checked though, the agreement is a public filing and they are expected to have better knowledge than a random person on reddit and to be more authoritative sources.


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#447
protopersona

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Ah, I see what you're saying, and you're right. I looked at SEC filings before and looking at them again they do have typos where they write "gross reciepts" and "gross sales revenue" interchangably, but for the actual part that matters (the actual dividend share formula) they are definitely clear on it being "gross receipts" (i.e. net of distributor's cut).

 

 

The inconsistent wording is definitely confusing and I'm surprised it's there in a legal filing. I'd have preferred them to use nett for receipts after cut and gross for before cut but I'm not an accountant.

 

I don't have much problem with the guy who made the initial calculation being mistaken given most people are familiar with movie or game grosses that include the vendor fees and will thus automatically think that's the case when seeing figures. Journos definitely should have checked though, the agreement is a public filing and they are expected to have better knowledge than a random person on reddit and to be more authoritative sources.

 

 

It's the age of 24/7 news cycles. You can't afford to wait for research or fact checking otherwise you won't be the first to gather all those clicks/views.

 

The internet has already destroyed the music industry. The publishing industry is in dire straits because of the internet. Journalism is in a severe crisis because of the internet. That where we're at.

 

I think the music industry is gonna be fine, artists have been making most of their money on live performances and going independent for a long time now. The recording companies and radio networks might be in trouble but oh well. I think it's a similar situation in the publishing industry.

 

The goals haven't changed, just the methods for reaching customers and marketing your product has. Companies have been slow to catch up and still insist on keeping the old profit margins in a world that increasingly can't afford to pay them.


Edited by protopersona, 10 January 2019 - 06:11 PM.

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#448
BrokenMask

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Honestly bit confused why consumers in some circles(pretty sure that doesn't happen with food products or such at least, it seems to mostly happen with entertainment) really pay attention to how well product sells?

Like is it case of wanting validation of "Everyone else bought it too!" or is it case of worrying "If it doesn't sell well enough, we won't see more products like it!"?

 

Edit: Oh hey Pathfinder got mentioned! Well its bit unrelated to topic but my thoughts on it:

The release version did REALLY really bad job of explaining how kingdom mechanics work. On this second playthrough after patches which added tutorials to explain how this works, its been easy on normal difficulty to manage it so that kingdom never goes under "stable" condition(its only been "stable" and "serene" in this playthrough, compared to my first playthrough where I got it to "unrest" after chapter 2 started and never got out of it until chapter 4 where it finally reached "ruined" and it was game over) and I've completed pretty much all kingdom projects by end of act 5 and am just maxing out every kingdom rank to 10 currently.

 

Pathfinder does also good job at feeling like a "pure rpg adventure" if that makes sense. Like, its not trying to be philosophical, deep or meaningful, its trying to tell fun story. Sure every companion learns a life lesson and game is surprisingly brutal and cynical(let troll kids go for example when you are on quest to kill their father, they return half the game later to avenge their father :p) but without starting to feel like its too dark if that makes sense? It also does good job of feeling like choices in earlier chapters show up or get referenced. Like in some games choices in games are purely about "what is gonna be in end game slides" rather than what happens later in game.

 

I think I need to rephrase that to make it bit clearer: I don't mean story of Kingmaker is particularly light hearted, I mean that good fun story comes with fun moments, tragic moments and everything between. It doesn't ever really weigh down on you, but I think it was fresh experience compared to most of "kickstater renaissance crpgs" storywise. I mean, I still like both Pillars, Torment Tides of Numenera and even Wasteland 2,(I never finished divinity 1 since it was co op game and I haven't played second game yet beyond starter island(because I wanted to finish the divinity 1 co-op run with friend) though I did like the gameplay mechanics in both and that you could play as characters you otherwise recruit to your party in second one. I do however feel like Divinity 1 is too heavy on side of comedy, second one seems to be better about that), but I feel like all three of them are pretty heavy story wise. Like, they don't just want to entertain you, it feels like they want to replicate experience of either Fallout or Planescape Torment if that makes sense?


Edited by BrokenMask, Yesterday, 03:59 AM.


#449
daven

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Honestly bit confused why consumers in some circles(pretty sure that doesn't happen with food products or such at least, it seems to mostly happen with entertainment) really pay attention to how well product sells?

Like is it case of wanting validation of "Everyone else bought it too!" or is it case of worrying "If it doesn't sell well enough, we won't see more products like it!"?

Probably.

 

But there are also people who prefer things that sell LESS as it's not as mainstream or whatever.



#450
BrokenMask

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Honestly bit confused why consumers in some circles(pretty sure that doesn't happen with food products or such at least, it seems to mostly happen with entertainment) really pay attention to how well product sells?

Like is it case of wanting validation of "Everyone else bought it too!" or is it case of worrying "If it doesn't sell well enough, we won't see more products like it!"?

Probably.

 

But there are also people who prefer things that sell LESS as it's not as mainstream or whatever.

 

 

Well yeah, but let's face it, hipsters specifically care less about thing selling well and more about "how many new people arrive to discus the thing". They prefer things that have small old circle discussing the thing forever without new folk entering.



#451
Verde

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Do you enjoy PoE and want an end for the trilogy? Well you better hope it sells well or it might get canned.

If you're a backer then you want it to sell well.

It's pretty basic really, sequels are canned all the time for low sales and people want a return on investment.

Edited by Verde, Yesterday, 05:01 AM.


#452
house2fly

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I don't much care about sequels, but if it had sold better they might have put more resources into the DLCs and patches. They might even have done a "director's cut" which addressed some issues with the story, maybe expanded some areas and dialogue. As it is, they patched in an impressive amount of new stuff and I have no complaints about the DLCs, but there are bugs that won't be fixed because they can't justify still working on a game past a certain point, due to sales.



#453
xzar_monty

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Do you enjoy PoE and want an end for the trilogy? Well you better hope it sells well or it might get canned.
 

 

Where is it implied that we're talking about a trilogy? As far as I know, nowhere.



#454
Verde

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Do you enjoy PoE and want an end for the trilogy? Well you better hope it sells well or it might get canned.


Where is it implied that we're talking about a trilogy? As far as I know, nowhere.

Trilogy, sequel. Semantics.

#455
Zoraptor

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Do you enjoy PoE and want an end for the trilogy? Well you better hope it sells well or it might get canned.
 

 

Where is it implied that we're talking about a trilogy? As far as I know, nowhere.

 

 

There's a bit of a default expectation that a computer game series will be a trilogy- the typical life of a hardware and software cycle usually allows for production of 3 games on the same engine, and economies of scale, reuse of assets and familiarity with the technology allows for quicker and cheaper (theoretically) production of sequels. People also get attached to characters and want to see them further.

 

If all other things were equal and sales were sufficient I'd expect there would be a PoE3, and that being the end for the watcher character and series (but not setting). The MS buyout and Deadfire not meeting expectations may change that, at least the stories for PoE and Deadfire were self contained.



#456
thelee

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is it case of worrying "If it doesn't sell well enough, we won't see more products like it!"?

 

that's the boat i'm in.

 

real-time with pause RPGs have been my favorite subgenre since they landed in the 90s, and I want there to be market support to keep generating them at volume.

 

also, I think the big impetus for a lot of this commentary initially was because of fig shares dividends, so people were expecting to get their money back and then some (and now it looks like they'll never get their money back).






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