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Finally some sales evidence


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#21
Boeroer

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Def. not entirely. Steam says "Top Sellers" and "most players" now in 2018. In 2017 they said revenue. It's not clear at all how the list is processed.

That's why I asked if anybody knows - and how stuff like pledges or even investments count in. I guess they don't because steam can't know the pledges and other numbers from Fig. So they are left with sold copies and player numbers - but maybe I'm wrong. But just think about those backers who gave 10.000 bucks and so on. If that money is not part of Steam's equation then the whole list is not that meaningful (for Deadfire). If it is then the list would contain useful info. Who knows this?

Edited by Boeroer, 07 July 2018 - 05:09 AM.

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#22
djinnxy

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I looked around and an unverified source says "Top Sellers" is generated by number of downloads. No money is factored in.


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#23
kanisatha

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It's very unfortunate that games with multiplayer significantly outsell single player only games. I can understand a little bit of a sales advantage for multiplayer, but these numbers seem to indicate a gigantic difference. I imagine this will mean that even small-to-medium sized RPG developers (Obsidian, inXile, etc.) will now move to multiplayer games and abandon creating single player only games.

 

I know that many multiplayer games can be played as single player, but at least for me it feels very much that those games make it very clear in-game that you are supposed to play them multiplayer and that they're optimized for multiplayer at the expense of the single player experience (ex. the D:OS games). This tends to seriously dampen my interest in those games.

 

Sorry for the tangent.


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#24
rjshae

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Valve is supposedly working on a replacement for Steam Spy, so we'll find out at some point.

 

https://arstechnica....pys-sales-data/


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#25
InsaneCommander

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I looked around and an unverified source says "Top Sellers" is generated by number of downloads. No money is factored in.

 

Makes sense. Some of the games in that list are "free to play".


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#26
rjshae

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It's very unfortunate that games with multiplayer significantly outsell single player only games. I can understand a little bit of a sales advantage for multiplayer, but these numbers seem to indicate a gigantic difference. I imagine this will mean that even small-to-medium sized RPG developers (Obsidian, inXile, etc.) will now move to multiplayer games and abandon creating single player only games.

 

It depends a lot on how difficult it is to break into that arena. The investment bar is high and not every game gets widely accepted, so for a smaller game company it's potentially a huge risk. They may need outside investment to make a go of it.


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#27
Purudaya

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It's very unfortunate that games with multiplayer significantly outsell single player only games. I can understand a little bit of a sales advantage for multiplayer, but these numbers seem to indicate a gigantic difference. I imagine this will mean that even small-to-medium sized RPG developers (Obsidian, inXile, etc.) will now move to multiplayer games and abandon creating single player only games.

 

 

Not necessarily - multiplayer games have been selling better for a while now and even AAA single player games are still being made (just look at the Witcher 3). It's all about what the core audience wants from a given IP.

Sidenote: people really need to stop comparing sales from Deadfire to PoE1 or the Divinity series (double sidenote: if Divinity is the direction CRPGs are headed, the genre is well and truly ****ed). All that matters is Obsidian's internal targets and projections - direct narrative sequels generally see diminished returns and the devs likely anticipated that Deadfire would not be able to replicate the conditions surrounding PoE1 (the first major isometric CRPG produced in over a decade). PoE's sales numbers supposedly surprised Obsidian, so if their aim was to sell ~500k this time around they'll probably be fine by the end of the year if not already from GoG sales.

My understanding is that PoE3 is pretty much a lock. Besides, there's nothing like remastering and repackaging a trilogy to squeeze some extra juice out of an IP.


Edited by Purudaya, 07 July 2018 - 08:14 AM.

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#28
anathanielh

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Well like i said DoTa is platinum and it is a game that sells for free

That means it costs nothing

So i dont think these figures are based on revenue

Free games can still make money through these things called M I C R O T R A N S A C T I O N S.
They may not sell copies, but they can still definitely contribute to revenue for Valve.

But if the top sellers list is determined by downloads, then I suppose it doesnt matter how much money is made by the games.

Edited by anathanielh, 07 July 2018 - 08:45 AM.

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#29
Bill Gates' Son

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Valve is supposedly working on a replacement for Steam Spy, so we'll find out at some point.

 

https://arstechnica....pys-sales-data/

 

Numbers have already been leaked.

 

 

https://arstechnica....sands-of-games/



#30
no1fanboy

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Yeah someone has allready posted that

Deadfire has sold 203,000 on steam

#31
Purkake

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Yeah someone has allready posted that

Deadfire has sold 203,000 on steam

Yeah, not looking good, Pillars 1 has 6x that :/



#32
house2fly

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Yeah but it's been out 19x longer
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#33
no1fanboy

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Of course pillars 1 has been out longer 

 

I think the point he is making is that 200,000 on steam after 2-3 months clearly aint good. Alot of those people would be backers too.

 

One way of seeing how it is trending its to wait 1 month and see how many extra sales they have done in that period then you would have some basis for determining long term sales number

 

Hopefully the Expansions and DLCS will stir interest and more sales will be generated


Edited by no1fanboy, 07 July 2018 - 05:42 PM.

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#34
the_dog_days

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Do the steam sales include the backers? Because they bought the game not directly at steam, they just activated it after.

 

They do not.


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#35
thelee

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One thing to keep in mind is that POE1 has a lower average sales price by now, thanks to discounting, sales, and such. So even though it has 6x sales of Deadfire so far, it is nowhere near 6x revenue. I feel like in the Fig campaign the numbers they were giving had something like 600k copies sold at 30USD average sale price (lower than MSRP due to promos and bundling and such). If they got to 1.2 million since, it has likely been through even more discounting and promotions, whereas Deadfire has been full MSRP so far.

So I wouldn't read too much into the raw sales numbers, though it is clear to me that Deadfire is doing less well than I personally would hope as a fan of the game and the studio.

Though what ultimately matters is if Deadfire makes enough money to pay the bills if not being a huge hit. I hope that the case. 200k @ 50$ (subtracting pre-paid backers but adding back in GOG sales and assuming they at least balance out) is 10m$ gross revenue, which may not be bad for an indie title, especially since some of the development cost was funded by fig money, some of which is investment that only needs to be paid out if they hit certain sales milestones so is not a too bad of a liability.

Edited by thelee, 07 July 2018 - 06:55 PM.

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#36
Murp

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I was feeling pretty good about the steam chart thing before I saw this thread (which I should have expected)

 

Too much hardtack lowered morale I guess.


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#37
rjshae

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PoE sold 500,000 units, including backers, after 5 months.

 

https://www.gamespot...e/1100-6431677/

 

PoE2 has been out 2 months, with 200,000 (+33K backers) units sold on Steam. So... I don't see a reason to be negative at this point.


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#38
no1fanboy

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PoE sold 500,000 units, including backers, after 5 months.

 

https://www.gamespot...e/1100-6431677/

 

PoE2 has been out 2 months, with 200,000 (+33K backers) units sold on Steam. So... I don't see a reason to be negative at this point.

you forgot what they have sold on GOG

 

so probably another 50,000 (complete guess) on top of that



#39
no1fanboy

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they are giving away free copies of POE1 

 

They are doing this to generate more sales for deadfire obvisouly

 

anyway here is free copy if anyone wants one

 

https://www.rockpape...gun: Steam RSS)


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#40
no1fanboy

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1


Edited by no1fanboy, 08 July 2018 - 03:06 AM.





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