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Good to remember that POE has such a high peak because it had just under 75k backers. So all those people plus anyone who baught the game on release had just gained access on it for that first weekend resulting in that 41k player peak. Deadfire had about half the ammount of backers POE did so it could be selling similar to the first one and still not acheiving as high of a peak. D:OS has pretty much the same peak and that game sold fine. Then again Deadfire's chart position on steam bestsellers since release doesn't imply the game is doing amazingly, it's hard to say for sure. It's perfectly possible that it is doing ok enough though.

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I'll start by saying I haven't played beyond Deadlight, because from the start it was obvious the game will benefit a lot from the first patches and I didn't want to spoil it for myslef by playing unpatched. Plus, there was enough work to do on the JSON editor to keep me busy.

 

This means I can't speak at length about the game's qualities or story, but the little I saw won me over completely, and I think the game is overall a big improvement over PoE. The increase in complexity and readability of mechanics, and in freedom/exploration of gameplay at the same time, the addition of multiclassing plus the ship system is just a huge boost. This is now much more than an IE games revival/clone. There is much I would like to change about the combat and abilities balance, but that's what modding is for.

 

All reviews of Deadfire I have seen so far seem to be very positive, and I think that's well earned by the game, yet the sales numbers don't seem to be that great. I wonder why is that? Are people waiting for patches/DLC? Does the price feel too high for people who haven't backed/preordered?

This game really should't have any sales. IT was broken on release and broken still. Beta for full price really should flop on sales in any fair world  

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If you liked the game, tell your friends to buy it, or buy them copies.

Let them wait for a month till patch which you! Misery likes company 

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Why do people insist on posting concurrent player numbers like that means anything in a single player RPG?  Multiplayer focused games will always have higher numbers, even if they only do average, simply because they are multiplayer games and you have to play when other people are playing.

Take Divinity Original Sin 2, it is a multiplayer focused game.  So not a shocker it crushes both Eternity's.

 

Meanwhile, try comparing it to other games that came out around the same time it did, not games that have had near a year, or years, to get the best player numbers it can.  I hate to bust reality, but those saying sales won't matter to the concurrent numbers of any game are deluded.  A game going on steam sale for 50% will do huge numbers for it unless the game just plain sucks or only has super tiny niche appeal.  Also no, Isometric RPG's are a niche, but not a "super tiny" one.

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Why do people insist on posting concurrent player numbers like that means anything in a single player RPG?  Multiplayer focused games will always have higher numbers, even if they only do average, simply because they are multiplayer games and you have to play when other people are playing.

 

 

People often don't account for all data, just the data they want to see. And I want to clarify all of us do this. The only people who know for certain are the folks at Obsidian.

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Yes! We have no bananas.

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Because the new steam private policy it's hard to say for sure. But I would bet it is around  120k to 150k copies. The first game to this day, last time I checked steamspy before the new rules, was around 1.6 mi copies 

 

A game with 4.4 million and costing 50USD, such as this, would pay itself around the 120k copies. But its hard to be precise, since some people, like me, got the deluxe pack.

So it probably paid itself around the 90k to 100k sales. Anything more than that is profit. 

 

Remember that the game is also a franchise, fans also spend money on shirts and stuff, so it can be more than that.


https://steamspy.com/search.php?s=deadfire

Edited by Siegdarth
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for me the idea of launching 3 DLC´s on one year was not a super big move from marketing perspective. 

Im not even pass the second city and im already thinking about waiting everything on december, and i even paused a litle before buying this week. (I decided to go for it because of the obsidian edition and because i want a pillars III in the far future :p). 

 

i bet with a good number of players is waiting all 3 DLC´s before buying or even playing the game.  (Im not a super fan of replaying a rpg again and again, i do wait some months/years before going again and i sure im not alone).  

 

Just like i don´t even played White March 1 until WM2 was launched. 

 

its nice to know what is coming for your game but it can also backfire.   

Edited by sterrius
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Because the new steam private policy it's hard to say for sure. But I would bet it is around  120k to 150k copies. The first game to this day, last time I checked steamspy before the new rules, was around 1.6 mi copies 

 

A game with 4.4 million and costing 50USD, such as this, would pay itself around the 120k copies. But its hard to be precise, since some people, like me, got the deluxe pack.

 

So it probably paid itself around the 90k to 100k sales. Anything more than that is profit. 

 

Remember that the game is also a franchise, fans also spend money on shirts and stuff, so it can be more than that.

 

 

https://steamspy.com/search.php?s=deadfire

I heard the budget was $14,000,000

 

They used 4 mil funding plus 10 mil of there own money

 

I also heard 500,000 copies was the break even price

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In other words, Deadfire is selling so badly that not only a Pillars of Eternity 3 is totally out of question, but Obsidian is also at the brink of bankruptcy and may very well close down for good soon.

There you have it. That is what you wanted. The worst possible scenario. JUMP AT IT! Bask in the negativity. Oh yes, it's so bad!

Think I can add a little bit more of negativity? You bet!
Because let's be honest, it is soon one month after release and the game is still in an UNPLAYABLE completely BROKEN state. So Obsidian closing down is only what they deserve for delivering such a complete mess.

Not to mention all the things in the game that THE majority doesn't even like, like the main story, the characters, the side quests, the combat, the music....

Note: There may be traces of sarcasm in this post. If you find them, you may keep them. :)

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"Loyal Servant of His Most Fluffyness, Lord Kerfluffleupogus, Devourer of the Faithful!"

 

ringoffireresistance.gif *wearing the Ring of Fire Resistance* (gift from JFSOCC)

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Because the new steam private policy it's hard to say for sure. But I would bet it is around  120k to 150k copies. The first game to this day, last time I checked steamspy before the new rules, was around 1.6 mi copies 

 

A game with 4.4 million and costing 50USD, such as this, would pay itself around the 120k copies. But its hard to be precise, since some people, like me, got the deluxe pack.

 

So it probably paid itself around the 90k to 100k sales. Anything more than that is profit. 

 

Remember that the game is also a franchise, fans also spend money on shirts and stuff, so it can be more than that.

 

 

https://steamspy.com/search.php?s=deadfire

 

I would spend all my money on an Eder romance. Just saying Devs.


Atsura, the intelligent Psychopath of my dreams.  I like my elves grumpy and my godlike fishy!


And my Rekke romancable!

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I think it’s struggling to appeal beyond the group of people who played and finished PoE1, as expected.

 

It’s hard to tell exactly how well it’s sold, but the player data on Steam Charts isn’t encouraging imo, assuming it’s at all accurate. The peak player number for the last 24 hours and (all-time peak):

 

Deadfire: 8,714 (22,639)

Pillars 1: 5,487 (41,787)

Divinity: OS 2: 11,576 (93,350)

 

I suppose the best news there is the shot in the arm Pillars 1 has received. Given the rate at which people bounce right off of Pillars however, I don’t know if we can assume they will finish it and go on to purchase Deadfire.

It was in top sales on Steam, most likely GoG too but people seem to think that's some sort of feat when nothing else interesting released in the same week due to delays.

 

Now that the month is finished, well, I think we all know sales are drastically lowered and won't pick up til the game's on sale via drastic discount.


Just what do you think you're doing?! You dare to come between me and my prey? Is it a habit of yours to scurry about, getting in the way and causing bother?

 

What are you still bothering me for? I'm a Knight. I'm not interested in your childish games. I need my rest.

 

Begone! Lest I draw my nail...

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It is currently as or writing this No. 35 on steam.

 

It has actually gone up over the last few days. It was way out of the top 50 a few days ago.

 

Dont get me wrong i love the game but i honestly cant see crpgs (with real time pause) recovering from this.

 

I also think Obsidian made alot of really really bad decisions. For example instead of making tyranny they should have devoted those resources to making deadfire bigger and better and less buggier.

 

Also come on lets face it the three expansions planned arent really expansions they are just the game split up into small bits and getting released in stages over 6 months.

Edited by hadiqa4444
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Also come on lets face it the three expansions planned arent really expansions they are just the game split up into small bits and getting released in stages over 6 months.

That’s a bold statement to make at a time when nothing is known about the DLCs except their titles and price point. I played Deadfire front to end and didn’t really feel like an incomplete game; and given Obsidian’s track record, it seems unlikely that they would cut content from the game to monetize via DLC.

 

Not saying it’s false, mind you. I’m saying we don’t know and it’s unlikely. I would reserve judgment for when the DLCs actually land.

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"Time is not your enemy. Forever is."

— Fall-From-Grace, Planescape: Torment

"It's the questions we can't answer that teach us the most. They teach us how to think. If you give a man an answer, all he gains is a little fact. But give him a question, and he'll look for his own answers."

— Kvothe, The Wise Man's Fears

My Deadfire mods: Brilliant Mod | Faster Deadfire | Deadfire Unnerfed | Helwalker Rekke

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I don't really understand what Steam bestsellers even mean. Last time I looked there were 2! items on the first page @ around 400 EUR that seemed to be some kind of developer tools. Who buys stuff like that, and why would it be selling better than actual games?

 

As for the DLC's aka "season pass" - it seems like some kind of marketing thing. "Season pass" suggests to me that there will be more than one of them. Then again, I might be stupid.


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Well, that's just it. Deadfire sat in first place on Steam's bestsellers page for a few days, however, that means nothing grand since right below it was a 6 year old game that was 50% off, which is in a great amount Steam users libraries already and below that were older games on sale as well...

 

Had a been released alongside anticipated games with a ln actual community, it would have actually been impressive and relevant.

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Just what do you think you're doing?! You dare to come between me and my prey? Is it a habit of yours to scurry about, getting in the way and causing bother?

 

What are you still bothering me for? I'm a Knight. I'm not interested in your childish games. I need my rest.

 

Begone! Lest I draw my nail...

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I heard the budget was $14,000,000

 

They used 4 mil funding plus 10 mil of there own money

 

I also heard 500,000 copies was the break even price

 

 

If the budget was 14 million and only need 500k sales im pretty safe to bet this game by years end will be turning a profit.   Maybe closer to 750k copies when the game start going to 25-50% discount and a last low budget market campaing when the first DLC comes out. 

 

Its not a MP game so low cost on servers/support outside of patches that are going together with DLC´s.  (And that is a lot of times already included in the total cost as making a game today without making at least 3-5 patchs is out of question, even EA level of support give this).

 

 

Amnesia developers had a very good interview some years ago saying that even years after release their game is still giving them some money every month.  Not a fortune but also not something to ignore either and that the crazy discounts helped them keep this little profit coming. 

 

Deadfire is that kind of game.  A ton of people might not be buying now but they surely have deadfire on "Wish to buy". (i have 3 of those in my friend list right now and its not a big one). 

As they run out of rpg´s they will buy it sooner or later. 

 

About pillars III.  Too soon to tell,  they need to analyse why deadfire 2 is not coming out on top and how many of those factors can be blamed on the game itself and how many of those factors can be fixed. 

 

Its very unlikely the genre or the universe is at fault here.  There is a playerbase wishing this kind of game and the universe is rich enough and full of areas people still wish to explore. 

 

 

and to finish up. 

Steam is far from being the only sale plataform today.  So 150k+ on steam  + 75k on gog + 25-50k on other plataforms surely will make the game reach to 500k+ sooner rather than later. 

Edited by sterrius
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In other words, Deadfire is selling so badly that not only a Pillars of Eternity 3 is totally out of question, but Obsidian is also at the brink of bankruptcy and may very well close down for good soon.

 

There you have it. That is what you wanted. The worst possible scenario. JUMP AT IT! Bask in the negativity. Oh yes, it's so bad!

 

Think I can add a little bit more of negativity? You bet!

Because let's be honest, it is soon one month after release and the game is still in an UNPLAYABLE completely BROKEN state. So Obsidian closing down is only what they deserve for delivering such a complete mess.

 

Not to mention all the things in the game that THE majority doesn't even like, like the main story, the characters, the side quests, the combat, the music....

 

Note: There may be traces of sarcasm in this post. If you find them, you may keep them. :)

 

Oh dear, I thought you were speaking about Heroes VII :D

 

As on topic - everything we know we can sum up in few points:

 

- SteamSpy is unreliable

- Deadfire is not AAA game, and isometric RPGs are niche (although not as niche as turn-based strategies like Heroes of Might & Magic)

- there are many other games in this genre, unlike in 2015 when PoE1 came out

 

And that's it. We don't know how much the game has cost, how much it cost Obsidian to pay apart from initial 4M from Fig, how much Obsidian needs to run, and what projects they are working on now. We are here just like collective Jon Snow but still we want to know and do some judgements.

 

Ah, we also know that other Obsidian/Paradox game, Tyranny, didn't fared well, but it payed itself (in Paradox's own words Tyranny did OK, but not that brilliant as they hoped). And that's really it guys, nothing more.

Edited by Kirk
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The owls are not what they seem.

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How many backers copies there were, I wonder? Do they add up to total number of copies sold?

It's really hard to tell whether this game is selling well, because it's a niche product and nobody knows what is Obsidian's estimated quota. Also, looking only at Steam stats is wrong, what about GOG and physical copies?

 

But for the sake of example, DOS2 sold more than a million copies in two months time, but, iirc, Larian were saying that their estimated numbers to break even were much lower. I don't think Pillars franchise is that popular yet to sell that well. Also, Larian did a better job at marketing their game. Obsidian needs to be more professional in this, instead of goofing around all over the place, POE2's release just quietly went under the radar for many people. It also never helps sales to release a game riddled with bugs - they become common knowledge within days nowadays and people spread the bad word around. I don't think it will get any better if they leave it on slow burner, right now I can only see them raising sales numbers by selling both games in a bundle and through discounts.

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Because the new steam private policy it's hard to say for sure. But I would bet it is around  120k to 150k copies. The first game to this day, last time I checked steamspy before the new rules, was around 1.6 mi copies 

 

A game with 4.4 million and costing 50USD, such as this, would pay itself around the 120k copies. But its hard to be precise, since some people, like me, got the deluxe pack.

 

So it probably paid itself around the 90k to 100k sales. Anything more than that is profit. 

 

Remember that the game is also a franchise, fans also spend money on shirts and stuff, so it can be more than that.

 

 

https://steamspy.com/search.php?s=deadfire

I heard the budget was $14,000,000

 

They used 4 mil funding plus 10 mil of there own money

 

I also heard 500,000 copies was the break even price

 

No way it was 14 million.  Mass Effect andromeda cost 40 million (10 of those was for marketing), Witcher 2 cost around 10 million and the first game cost around 5 million, and the branching storylines are more complex than Deadfire. I'm putting together marketing costs in the bill also. 

If POE2 cost 14 million to be made it should have way more content. I would say it was done with most 5 to 6 million tops. 

 

PO2 Marketing campaign is far from what those games I mentioned spent because cRPG it is a niche market. You don't see expensive cinematic trailers on tv or youtube. Only in some major magazines, and is not that expensive. 

 

Just to put things into perspective, the game has no complex cinematics ( what they have is easily done in after effects or other programs), no facial rigging, no big worries with lighting and environmental effects, doing those in a third person/first person game is way more expensive, simple combat animations (All the attacks are the same despiting using totally different skills, most spells share the animations by class, I love 2 handed because it has 2-3 animation sets, while all other weapons have 1-2), and no dialogue character animations. The effects of spells and abilities are top notch, but not so expensive. The models are good, but the customization is pre-defined.

What is really expensive about the game is the sheer amount of programming in making all those systems and quests conditions and so on. The writing is really important, however, the price is not nearly the amount of other assets.

And one of the most expensive things they already did with POE, they adapted Unity to their needs to the point InXile reached them to use their conversation editor, systems, and tools to create Numenara. 

 

The amount of voice over made a lasting impression on me.  But let's be sincere, a soulbound weapon that speaks doesn't cost 250K, there are entire visual novel/narrative games with voice over which are made with half that value. To create a single NPC companion would cost around 200K when you say you would have twice more voice-overs in the game for the same value? To implement the Berath's blessings would cost another 200k?

I would trade the talking weapon for another companion or more interesting and complex characters, I would trade UI customization for more dialogue at my characters romance options.

 

Do you think they would need 1 mi to add multiclassing to the game? The skills don't even interact directly with each other! They just added the other class skills, removed 2 power levels and that's it! When they said they needed 1 mi for multiclassing I was thinking about a warrior with a psyblade and using it to do long-range attacks or pulling the enemy close to them with a psi power, a rogue that can use a psi power to enter stealth or even a holy warrior that used flames of devotion mixed with knockdown and it changed the skill to Smite. 

 

Another question to spin your mind. You can kill all the companions and bring none to the new game. So you party will be exactly 5 (Xoti, Druid, Cipher, Ranger, Player Character) If Xoti wasn't founded would you think the developers would deliver a game with 3 companions ( not enough to form a party) and without a Priest? 

 

Imo, if they spent 14 mi in this game probably they had a bunch of development or money management problems and needed the 1.1 campaign to finish the game. The extra money they had it was used to produce the DLC. Oh and 3  DLC every 2 months after the lunch means cheap content or it was already in production.  

 

But don't mind me, i'm probably wrong because i love theorycrafting =P.

 

 

Edited by Siegdarth
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Why do people insist on posting concurrent player numbers like that means anything in a single player RPG?  Multiplayer focused games will always have higher numbers, even if they only do average, simply because they are multiplayer games and you have to play when other people are playing.

 

Take Divinity Original Sin 2, it is a multiplayer focused game.  So not a shocker it crushes both Eternity's.

 

Meanwhile, try comparing it to other games that came out around the same time it did, not games that have had near a year, or years, to get the best player numbers it can.  I hate to bust reality, but those saying sales won't matter to the concurrent numbers of any game are deluded.  A game going on steam sale for 50% will do huge numbers for it unless the game just plain sucks or only has super tiny niche appeal.  Also no, Isometric RPG's are a niche, but not a "super tiny" one.

 

The peaks for Pillars, Deadfire and D:OS2 are all right at launch. I think you can read plenty into how those peaks compare. D:OS2 having had a year to build a multiplayer userbase or whatever is neither here nor there as far as the peaks are concerned.

 

Sales will obviously cause a short term bump in concurrent users, which is true of anything. Unless it's a ~90% off sale or something it's not going to get close to surpassing the initial release peak.

 

Having a low release peak and then very low concurrent users can hardly be taken as a good sign. Early interest in Deadfire seems weak.

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Because the new steam private policy it's hard to say for sure. But I would bet it is around  120k to 150k copies. The first game to this day, last time I checked steamspy before the new rules, was around 1.6 mi copies 

 

A game with 4.4 million and costing 50USD, such as this, would pay itself around the 120k copies. But its hard to be precise, since some people, like me, got the deluxe pack.

 

So it probably paid itself around the 90k to 100k sales. Anything more than that is profit. 

 

Remember that the game is also a franchise, fans also spend money on shirts and stuff, so it can be more than that.

 

 

https://steamspy.com/search.php?s=deadfire

I heard the budget was $14,000,000

 

They used 4 mil funding plus 10 mil of there own money

 

I also heard 500,000 copies was the break even price

 

No way it was 14 million.  Mass Effect andromeda cost 40 million (10 of those was for marketing), Witcher 2 cost around 10 million and the first game cost around 5 million, and the branching storylines are more complex than Deadfire. I'm putting together marketing costs in the bill also. 

If POE2 cost 14 million to be made it should have way more content. I would say it was done with most 5 to 6 million tops. 

 

PO2 Marketing campaign is far from what those games I mentioned spent because cRPG it is a niche market. You don't see expensive cinematic trailers on tv or youtube. Only in some major magazines, and is not that expensive. 

 

Just to put things into perspective, the game has no complex cinematics ( what they have is easily done in after effects or other programs), no facial rigging, no big worries with lighting and environmental effects, doing those in a third person/first person game is way more expensive, simple combat animations (All the attacks are the same despiting using totally different skills, most spells share the animations by class, I love 2 handed because it has 2-3 animation sets, while all other weapons have 1-2), and no dialogue character animations. The effects of spells and abilities are top notch, but not so expensive. The models are good, but the customization is pre-defined.

What is really expensive about the game is the sheer amount of programming in making all those systems and quests conditions and so on. The writing is really important, however, the price is not nearly the amount of other assets.

And one of the most expensive things they already did with POE, they adapted Unity to their needs to the point InXile reached them to use their conversation editor, systems, and tools to create Numenara. 

 

The amount of voice over made a lasting impression on me.  But let's be sincere, a soulbound weapon that speaks doesn't cost 250K, there are entire visual novel/narrative games with voice over which are made with half that value. To create a single NPC companion would cost around 200K when you say you would have twice more voice-overs in the game for the same value? To implement the Berath's blessings would cost another 200k?

I would trade the talking weapon for another companion or more interesting and complex characters, I would trade UI customization for more dialogue at my characters romance options.

 

Do you think they would need 1 mi to add multiclassing to the game? The skills don't even interact directly with each other! They just added the other class skills, removed 2 power levels and that's it! When they said they needed 1 mi for multiclassing I was thinking about a warrior with a psyblade and using it to do long-range attacks or pulling the enemy close to them with a psi power, a rogue that can use a psi power to enter stealth or even a holy warrior that used flames of devotion mixed with knockdown and it changed the skill to Smite. 

 

Another question to spin your mind. You can kill all the companions and bring none to the new game. So you party will be exactly 5 (Xoti, Druid, Cipher, Ranger, Player Character) If Xoti wasn't founded would you think the developers would deliver a game with 3 companions ( not enough to form a party) and without a Priest? 

 

Imo, if they spent 14 mi in this game probably they had a bunch of development or money management problems and needed the 1.1 campaign to finish the game. The extra money they had it was used to produce the DLC. Oh and 3  DLC every 2 months after the lunch means cheap content or it was already in production.  

 

But don't mind me, i'm probably wrong because i love theorycrafting =P.

 

 

 

Game dev budget will probably go 2-3x further in Poland than in the US.

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Game dev budget will probably go 2-3x further in Poland than in the US

 

Unfortunately, for mid-sized independent studios, California in particular seems to be one of the most difficult areas to be based in here (costs of living and upkeep, etc.). This also goes for Double Fine -- when Broken Age launched, there were various European developers voicing how they'd (need to) develop similar scaled adventure games on a fraction of that budget. So 10M for Witcher 2 developed in Poland is something else completely to the same game developed in, say, San Fran.

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It's still showing up in Steam Top Sellers for me. 

 

"Top Sellers" are weird though. It's being outsold by a number of games that seem to be objectively worse (conan: exiles is sitting at 66 on Metacritic).

 

I wonder how much of the problem is marketing and how much of it is declining appeal for isometric RPG's.

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