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Urthor

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Posts posted by Urthor

  1. The thing about Game pass is that once DLC gets released in 6 months you have to come back and pay full price, and it all snowballs from there really.  It's not a "wow it's $3" thing because you are going to be cancelling and uncancelling your credit card subscription every time you want to play with DLC and they get you that way.  Which is why I bought it straight up

  2. Yeah I shamelessly take the side off my case and point a leafblower at it.  It works, just need to make sure you don't hold it close, and I use some blutack to immobilise my CPU fan so it doesn't get spun by the blown air.  

     

    A leafblower is a wonderful thing, especially if you have to clean your sidewalk in autumn

  3. https://www.growly.io/investing-on-fig-insight-from-a-veteran-investor/

     

    This has the details from the original FIG pitch.  Basically FIG stops paying back once Pillars 2 on Windows (not console) including DLC, returns 14 million dollars.  

     

    investing-on-fig-graph.png

     

    There's a big ole breakeven at 580k copies.  A big ole breakeven.  

     

    Now, keep in mind that this is at an average selling price of 24 dollars or thereabouts because of the storefront margin of 30%, steam sale discounting of the title, etc etc, so they assume on average each copy will be 24 dollars.  The original 200k is obviously much above that mark, although it has to be considered whether backer money is returned to FIG investors, as a number of those 200k total players are backers.  

     

    Now idk where the 500k Pillars of Eternity 1 sales after 5 months figure came from, but that is VERY interesting because I'm not in the business of internet archiving steamspy numbers.  If that's true then that's an interesting mark for the Pillars 1 slowburn.

     

    Long term I have zero doubt that Deadfire will hit the breakeven and make back the presumed 14 million budget mentioned in the FIG investment article, however keep in mind that for return on capital you need to make approx 10% per annum, compounded, so whilst the breakeven point is "breakeven," the actual commercial rate of return is higher than the breakeven point, and may take awhile to hit.

     

    I have no doubt that in the slimy depths of the internet FIG communication with its 1k backers will eventually emerge into the public domain and we'll see whether this game actually shipped well, but until then I am a very interested bystanded in Deadfire's performance.

     

    I highly expect many Deadfire developers to be shifted to Tim and Leon's Wonder Game™ in the medium term, as Obsidian ramps up their Unreal 4 engine powered shot at the big time, and I don't think we will see a Deadfire sequel too quickly, especially with Josh being potentially MIA as he's pretty burnt out after this game.  But who knows, maybe they'll keep the Adam Brenneke division of Obsidian open and move straight into Pillars 3 or somesuch even after this performance.  

     

    In terms of comparable games, keep in mind TTON and Tyranny were in fact proper disasters, although Tyranny could be blamed on the release date.  Battletech hit 450k and is financially succesful, while likely to follow the Paradox model of endless expansion packs more than likely.  

     

    Edit: $23.6 * 203,867 units = $4,811,261, although those are higher value units as Deadfire hasn't gone through the full discounting cycle yet.  Deadfire has however had a number of discounts, so I would absolutely say the total revenue is far below 10 million.  

    • Like 2
  4. I looked at the original figstarter docs for investing the 1k, their original prospectus was based around the 500k-600k mark as the break even point in 2017.

     

     

    The 200k figure is taken from the steam sales though, their overall returns will of course be higher because DLC, but Pillars 2 is definitely a marginal product financially, a very marginal product.  

  5. I don't think there was a quest particularly for it. As for a hint, I found it after thoroughly exploring all the areas after an unpleasant elevator ride in the shabby part of Neketaka.

     

    Do be aware, it is an area where you can't always get back the way you came, and there are a LOT of unpleasant things between you and the exit. (So definitely keep a save from before you go there).

     

    I thought I cleared out that area?   Is it in the first area post elevator, or the 2nd area post elevator?

  6. type iroll20s into the console

    Remove items

    Screenshot your character abilities tab for the various watcher abilities etc

    Open Character Creation into the console

    check the experience total Eder/one of your companions has

    remove all companions

    Add Experience x into the console

    Go to Tavern and reroll
    play game
     
    So yes you're explicitly cheating, and you'll get achievements disabled unless you find a way to get around the flag obsidian have made for that.  
    • Like 1
  7. Seems like Melee is doing well - what are peoples opinions on Casters? Or particuarly Druid/Fury? - What would synergise well with a Fury Druid? Is melee that much better than going shifter or Animist would yield better results - combos for Melee mulitclasses seems pretty easy and intuituve

     

    Druid is quite good.  It's a quality caster. 

  8. Fantastic.  Single class monk is fantastic no matter the variant.  

     

    Ascendant Cipher is a bit useless because ascendant ciphers don't scale their melee damage at all, they only cast the actual cipher spells better, which is pretty dodgy.  

     

    Also the thing people don't appreciate about multi classes is how few abilities you can take.  It's not that you get there more slowly, it's the fact you have the same number of abilities split across two classes, meaning that having an actual viable pool of Cipher abilities is unbelievably tricky if you multi class and cast.  If you are multi classing into Cipher you are either going soulblade or nothing without a doubt.  

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