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#341
Gromnir

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I suppose its my own fault for engaging, fool me 5472943049297 times I guess...
 

...with total compliance from all nations...


...could lower the expected temperature increase by 0.6 to 1.1 C.


The World Meteorological Organization estimated that U.S. withdrawal from the emissions-cutting accord could add 0.3 degrees Celsius to global temperatures by the end of the century in a worst-case scenario.


So since the US is no longer in the accord, add 0.3.

So add that 0.3 to the mythical expected temperature increase of 0.6 to 1.1 and you get the result of a expected temperature increase of 0.9 to 1.4C.

You can just forget I asked you a question. Ill wait ands see if someone else circles back to answer. :thumbsup:

 

where do you see .6 to 1.1 as the expected temp increase under the paris agreement?

 

"In fact, the MIT research to which the president referred showed that the Paris Agreement could lower the expected temperature increase by 0.6 to 1.1 C."
 

 

the overall global increase with Paris goals met is indeed mythical given the info you have available.  you know potential reduction with or w/o US, but you don't know "the expected temperature increase." subtract. is not add. 

 

...

 

*shrug*

 

leave as-is.

 

you are reading a projected decrease of the expected increase as the increase itself.


Edited by Gromnir, 06 June 2017 - 12:55 PM.

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#342
Zoraptor

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I suppose its my own fault for engaging, fool me 5472943049297 times I guess...

The two figures are measuring different things.

 

0.3 degrees = difference from US pulling out only

0.6-1.1 degree = difference if everyone pulled out/ there was no agreement. This includes the US contribution, it doesn't exclude it. This is where you are making the mistake.

 

Trump is wrong because he has used the first figure and stated it as representing the second data set. If he'd stated that 0.2 degrees was the difference for the US pulling out he'd be correct (enough), but he said it was the figure for if the agreement didn't exist at all, which is incorrect.

 

The new expected difference is 0.4 to 0.8 reduction per (0.6-0.2) to (1.1-0.3).

 

(All simple case, statistically it's a bit more complicated than that)


Edited by Zoraptor, 06 June 2017 - 12:42 PM.

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#343
Wrath of Dagon

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Apparently the higher number includes all planned remediation strategies, not just the Paris Agreement. Also depends whose numbers you believe: https://judithcurry....mate-proposals/

#344
Gromnir

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https://www.climatei...aris-agreement/

 

perhaps use of actual link helps best.

 

business as usual = 4.2C increase by 2100

Paris Agreement = 3.3C increase by 2100 (mit, for purposes of graph, settled 'pon .9 'stead of range from .6 to 1.1... otherwise would see 3.1 to 3.6C)

 

take US out of agreement and the numbers would skew upwards by .3C, yes? 3.4 to 3.9C.

 

HA! Good Fun!



#345
Valsuelm

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Are you guys seriously arguing over projected temperature increases?

 

Really?

 

You're that plugged inside the box?



#346
Gromnir

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Are you guys seriously arguing over projected temperature increases?

 

Really?

 

You're that plugged inside the box?

something in the water today? can't get anybody to pay attention.

 

TRUMP offered numbers which he claimed were the impact Paris Agreement would have on projected temp increases. he did so in a televised speech. TRUMP wh claimed the mitigation numbers the President offered came from MIT.  unfortunate for trump, MIT refuted the alternative facts with the actual numbers they had provided.

 

nobody here has actual argued the projected temp increase.  

 

serious folks, wth is going on today?

 

HA! Good Fun!


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#347
Bartimaeus

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